June 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cromagnum
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Looks to be a TS now. Satellite presentation looks strong.
Stormlover2020
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Bastardi has cat 2 nearing crystal beach upper tx coast
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tireman4
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Still a long way to go. Lots of model runs to go
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snowman65
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gfs has landfall around Crowley, la so who knows at this point.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.AVIATION...

Isolated fog that has developed overnight will lift and burn off in
the next hour or two. Some SHRA/TSRA that are expected to develop
today could bring brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities to the
area. Otherwise, VFR today with light winds early shifting to the
E and SE and increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning through
afternoon hours. Any storms that do develop should dissipate this
evening. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...

Early morning skies range from clear with patchy fog across our
southwest counties (toward the Matagorda Bay area) to partly/mostly
skies across the rest of the area. Temperatures generally range
from the low to mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches. With
daytime heating today, expecting to see isolated to widely scattered
shower and thunderstorm development. High temperatures are expected
to range from the mid to upper 80s at the coast to around 90 inland.
Any activity that does develop today should weaken and dissipate
this evening with the loss of heating. After overnight low temperatures
tonight bottom out in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and upper 70s
to around 80 at the coast, a similar pattern should be in place for
Wednesday with mainly daytime shower and thunderstorm development
and high temperatures similar to what the area sees today. 42

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

Continued warming is expected through the week with high
temperatures in the low 90s on Thursday climbing to the mid 90s by
the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the Desert
Southwest. Low temperatures through the rest of the week will dip
down into the low to mid 70s. Heat index values will climb to near
triple digits by Saturday, so please remember to take breaks and
remain hydrated if you are outside. PWATs remaining near 1.5 to 1.75
inches combined with daytime heating will lead to showers and
thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze each afternoon through
Saturday.

We are continuing to monitor the tropics for potential impacts from
Tropical Depression 3 (TD3), which is currently located in the Bay
of Campeche. It is expected to reach tropical storm strength later
today as it meanders around the Bay of Campeche, where it will
remain for the next few days. It is anticipated to move northward
into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend and potentially near the Gulf
Coast by Sunday. As the system moves northward, the ridge of high
pressure that has been building over the Desert Southwest will move
eastward over the Midwest. The location and strength of this high
pressure, along with how quickly TD3 moves into the Gulf, will have
drastic effects on where TD3 ends up as it approaches the Gulf
Coast. There is too much uncertainty in the forecast at the moment
to discuss any specifics that TD3 will have on SE Texas. However,
now is the perfect time for you to review your hurricane plans and
emergency kits prepared for hurricane season.

Fowler

MARINE...

Still looking for light to occasionally moderate east to southeast
winds to persist through the end of the week. Increasing northeast
winds and building seas are anticipated over the weekend as low
pressure (currently associated with Tropical Depression Three)
moves into the Central Gulf. This system is expected to strengthen
and become Tropical Storm Cristobal which could eventually bring
deteriorating conditions to the area over the weekend and into the
start of next week. The forecast track of this system remains quite
uncertain, and mariners are urged to keep up with the forecast for
this possible Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 70 90 71 92 / 30 20 20 0 10
Houston (IAH) 90 72 90 73 92 / 20 10 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 85 78 85 77 85 / 10 20 30 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Andrew
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Newest track by the NHC is a little quicker and more closely follows the ECMWF
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tireman4
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Wxman's Thinking at this time ( and yes, I do trust him, he nailed Ike back in 2008)


Looks like NHC is using the stalling move Sat/Sun. Our track has it about 300 miles north of NHC's at day 5 (4am CDT advisory). They're not committing to a landfall direction yet. Landfall late Sunday night, possibly SW LA.

He can come in ( and I am sure he will) and tell us more. :)
Cpv17
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I wonder if the middle Texas coast is in the clear yet? Looking more and more like it is. An upper Texas or sw Louisiana hit will have a minimal impact on my area, if anything at all being on the dry side. If the middle Texas coast comes back into play then all of SETX will be under the gun.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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CPV17,

I would say no one is in the "Clear". This is an ever changing situation ( very fluid). All interests in the Gulf Mexico should keep an eye on this. Anything and everything can change.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:07 am CPV17,

I would say no one is in the "Clear". This is an ever changing situation ( very fluid). All interests in the Gulf Mexico should keep an eye on this. Anything and everything can change.
I agree. I just get caught up in the consensus of the model runs and by what others are saying too much. I need to do a better job of not getting caught up in that so much.
Cromagnum
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Until a well defined COC is nailed down and models get a handle on the ridging situation, all bets are on the table. I dont think we are going to get a clear picture of where this is going until Thursday or Friday which won't give a ton of time to prepare in case this ramps up. Everyone needs to be in supply preparation mode and paying attention.
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tireman4
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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jasons2k
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In the meantime, I'm already up to 90 degrees. A hot start to the summer season.
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jasons2k
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A local Met, Nathan Moore sent me an update. Sorry I can't repost the images:

Good morning everyone,

Sorry I am a bit late on my update this morning but we definitely have a lot to discuss so let’s get to it.
IR Imagery (click here)

So, as of this writing (around 12pm Central Time), Tropical Depression 3 was just upgraded to Tropical
Storm Cristobal across the Southern Bay of Campeche.
Visible imagery (click here)

If you remember, yesterday, I said there would be a possibility of two systems. It does appear now that
there is only going to be one storm center and this is the one currently across the Southern Bay of
Campeche.

There are a few situations that could play out, however.

Scenario #1
Due to the close proximity to land to Central America, there is the chance that this system could interact
with land, weaken and then potentially dissipate across the mountains of Central America.

Scenario #2
Or the current thinking of the system staying over water, meandering across the Southern Gulf of
Mexico and then moving north and eventually northwest.

Scenario #3
The center of this system could relocate and that would change the thinking of my forecast along with
models. This has occurred in the past and it then changes the complexity of an already complex
situation.

Which situation will play out?
I think scenario 2 will be the main one that plays out the most but there is the chance scenario 1 could
also occur. Right now, I think there is about a 70-80% of #2 being the main event here.

My current thinking
My thinking hasn’t changed too much over the course of the past 24 hours. I think some gradual
strengthening is expected with this system as it roams across the Bay of Campeche. There are very weak
steering currents right now across the Southern Gulf of Mexico. There will be a cold front/trough break
down the ridge across the Southeast United States and begin to bring the system north. There will be
some influence from the trough but if this were later in the year, this would likely push the system north
and east, however, due to the time of year and unlikelihood of the storm not being as influenced, a
north and then northwest turn will be anticipated.
Euro Model (Fri PM)
GFS (American)Model (Fri PM)

If you notice in the above images, the difference in the placement of the cold front (solid blue line). The
European model has the boundary along the coastline while the GFS has the front across the Northern
Gulf of Mexico. My thinking is while many of the fronts lately have made their way further south than
usual, I still think the GFS solution is a little stronger with the front. The European placement of the
boundary is what I think is a little better depiction and while there will be some influence on the system
in the Southern Gulf, I don’t think it will be quite as much as the GFS is showing.
Euro Model (Sun PM)

I AM SHOWING YOU THIS NOT ON WHERE LANDFALL WILL BE BUT TO KIND OF SHOW YOU WHAT IS
HAPPENING ON THIS MODEL.

You will notice the red line I drew on this map, showing after the front dies out, there is a ridge that
begins to build in across the area. This will then push the system further west. How far west, you will see
below on my thoughts.

Forecast/Timeline

Right now, my thinking is potential landfall being between Sunday and Monday evening.
Strength Probabilities at Landfall
Tropical Depression – 100%
Tropical Storm – 100%
Category 1 Hurricane – 60%
Category 2 Hurricane – 20%
Category 3-5 Hurricane – 0%

Landfall locations
Florida coastline – 0%
Biloxi, MS to Mobile, AL – 0%
New Orleans to Morgan City, LA – 5%
Morgan City to Lake Charles, LA – 10%
Lake Charles, LA to Sabine Pass, TX – 25%
Sabine Pass to Galveston, TX – 60%
Galveston to Victoria, TX – 60%
Victoria to Corpus Christi, TX – 30%
Corpus Christi to Brownsville, TX – 10%
Mexico landfall – 0%

So basically what we are looking at now is a pretty high probability of a central to upper Texas coastline
landfall. This could still change but the confidence regarding this forecast is increasing.


Ok, that is all for now. I will be providing once a day updates until this system makes landfall. May be
more often depending on the situation. Again, if you all have any questions, please let me know through
Facebook, Twitter (@Nathan_Weather) or you can email me on here.
Stay safe everyone
Stormlover2020
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He’s one of by best friends Jason
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jasons2k
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:13 pm He’s one of by best friends Jason
He is a great guy and a straightforward forecaster! I definitely consider his input carefully.
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tireman4
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Is he an OCM in Houston?
davidiowx
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12z Euro takes this right into central Louisiana this run.
TXWeatherMan
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12z Euro with a decent shift East. Expect a lot more changes the next few days though.
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don
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Yep the trend is our friend today, but we still probably have another couple of days until we can be sure we're in the clear.
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