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Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Tue May 19, 2020 11:37 pm
by sambucol
Opinion of this coming hurricane season? Active or not so? Opinions on most likely parts of the Gulf Coast as target areas?

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 6:36 pm
by Pas_Bon
Very active, IMO. Neutral ENSO likely (if not teetering on La Niña conditions.....SST’s through the roof)
Regarding targets....impossible to peg down at this point.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 10:48 am
by mcheer23
NOAA has released their Hurricane Forecast.

13-19 Named Storms
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes.

Above Average season.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 3:06 pm
by jasons2k
I’ve been meaning to post an email from a local met, Nathan Moore, but it had images and I don’t know how to include them
with our size restrictions. But the bottom line was a very busy season, potentially a hyperactive season, and 2005 was one of his analogue years. And the entire Texas coast was in his “red” zone.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 5:43 am
by cperk
The 00z GFS has a 994mb tropical storm off the Louisiana coast at hour 384 6/9.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 3:03 pm
by cperk
The 12z EC has a tropical system in the BOC at hour 240.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 3:06 pm
by cperk
cperk wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:03 pm The 12z EC has a tropical system in the BOC at hour 240 coming-up from the eastern pacific.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 3:41 pm
by Pas_Bon
cperk wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:03 pm The 12z EC has a tropical system in the BOC at hour 240.
Multiple models now are picking up on “something.”
Exact location and strength matters not....fact is that the Gulf/BOC/NW Caribbean bears watching over the next couple weeks.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 12:44 pm
by Scott747
These late May GFS runs keep getting better and better every year.

12z is a doozy.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 2:20 pm
by Cpv17
12z Euro has a low trying to form in the BOC at the end of the run around day 9 or 10.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 5:01 pm
by Cpv17
Many ensemble members of the Euro are showing formation in the BOC, same members are pretty strong.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu May 28, 2020 8:36 am
by srainhoutx
The models are suggesting a robust Central America Monsoonal Gyre develops early next week with multiple low centers rotating within the gyre in the EPAC, Western/NW Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. The various computer schemes will struggle to identify which of those low centers could become more dominate. Typically these monsoonal gyre systems are loose, sloppy and big rain makers.

As of today it's worth monitoring and as Hurricane Season 2020 begins officially June 1st, all eyes turn toward the Gulf and the Tropics.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu May 28, 2020 3:37 pm
by Pas_Bon
My opinion on hurricane season is that we will have a hurricane season this year. I don’t see it being cancelled or delayed by COVID-19

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Fri May 29, 2020 2:15 am
by Scott747
This is becoming slightly more interesting. Euro, Canadian and GFS are in reasonable agreement even if it's in the long range.

It's also sped up the potential for development instead of being in total fantasy land.

Need a few more runs but something to keep an eye on.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Fri May 29, 2020 8:05 am
by Pas_Bon
Has anyone seen the satellite loop from the BOC this morning?

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Sat May 30, 2020 7:27 am
by Scott747
The ensembles for both the GFS and Euro are fairly active for something in the Western Gulf next weekend.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Sat May 30, 2020 10:37 pm
by snowman65
a ways out but got us in the bullseye...again....already....can't wait to move.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:03 pm
by srainhoutx
Phil Klotzbach and his CSU team increase their 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook this morning to 19 named storms, 9 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes. These numbers include the first 3 named storms that have already occurred.

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:57 pm
by unome
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:03 pm Phil Klotzbach and his CSU team increase their 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook this morning to 19 named storms, 9 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes. These numbers include the first 3 named storms that have already occurred.
what was it before, I don't remember ? How much of an increase ?

Re: Hurricane season 2020 opinions

Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:31 pm
by srainhoutx
unome wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:57 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:03 pm Phil Klotzbach and his CSU team increase their 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook this morning to 19 named storms, 9 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes. These numbers include the first 3 named storms that have already occurred.
what was it before, I don't remember ? How much of an increase ?
Their previous forecast was 16 named storms, 8 Hurricanes and 4 Major Hurricanes.