MAY 2020

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cperk
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by cperk » Sun May 31, 2020 12:15 pm

Thanks Cp my bad.

Cpv17
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sun May 31, 2020 12:48 pm

Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.

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don
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by don » Sun May 31, 2020 12:58 pm

Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.
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jasons2k
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by jasons2k » Sun May 31, 2020 1:03 pm

don wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 12:58 pm
Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that,were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.
Well said and I would second that. Also, keep in mind, that just like here, on Storm2K we have a mix of both amateurs and professionals. We do not issue forecasts. As always, follow official the guidance of the NHC.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sun May 31, 2020 1:21 pm

don wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 12:58 pm
Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.
Dude that’s crazy. I wrote that at hour 168 on the Euro thinking there was no way it would bend back west like that. I thought that was headed towards Mississippi/Alabama. Guess I spoke too soon.

cperk
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by cperk » Sun May 31, 2020 1:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 12:48 pm
Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.
Texas is not in the clear.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sun May 31, 2020 1:37 pm

cperk wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 1:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 12:48 pm
Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.
Texas is not in the clear.
Yeah it’s early. We’ll know more in a few days. I was just speaking as of now from what the models were showing before I saw the hard left turn on the Euro. My bad!!

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snowman65
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by snowman65 » Sun May 31, 2020 1:43 pm

already has a name. we'll never survive this season....

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srainhoutx
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Sun May 31, 2020 1:53 pm

It might be time to move discussions for the potential Atlantic Basin tropical disturbance to the June thread since we will be done with May tonight?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by jasons2k » Sun May 31, 2020 3:44 pm

I was hoping for a little shower from that band that started to from along US 59 up towards Porter, but as quickly as it started to go-up, it started falling apart,

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