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Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sat May 30, 2020 11:32 pm
by TXWeatherMan
ICON spins it up pretty good this run.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 12:31 am
by Rip76
Yep
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 9:45 am
by Cromagnum
What happened to hot and dry that was forecast. Looks like a washout coming for Sunday
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 10:40 am
by jasons2k
I can’t keep up. When I went to bed, my rain chances for today were 40%. When I woke-up, they had been lowered down to 20%. Lots of flip-flopping with the forecast this week.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 10:54 am
by tireman4
This will be everchanging all week
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 12:10 pm
by Cromagnum
S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 12:19 pm
by Cpv17
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 12:10 pm
S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.
Yeah if that would be the case then SETX would be left and high and dry and LA would get hammered. Still a long ways out though.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 1:06 pm
by davidiowx
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 12:10 pm
S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.
Wayyyyyy to far out to even have a long shot guess and any landfall location. This could just as well die out in Mexico. Nothing is certain but if/when this emerges into the BoC, we definitely need to be paying attention.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 1:07 pm
by cperk
The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 1:12 pm
by Cpv17
cperk wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 1:07 pm
The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.
I still see 40-50%??
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 1:15 pm
by cperk
Thanks Cp my bad.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 1:48 pm
by Cpv17
Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 1:58 pm
by don
Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 2:03 pm
by jasons2k
don wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 1:58 pm
Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that,were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.
Well said and I would second that. Also, keep in mind, that just like here, on Storm2K we have a mix of both amateurs and professionals. We do not issue forecasts. As always, follow official the guidance of the NHC.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 2:21 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 1:58 pm
Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.
Dude that’s crazy. I wrote that at hour 168 on the Euro thinking there was no way it would bend back west like that. I thought that was headed towards Mississippi/Alabama. Guess I spoke too soon.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 2:27 pm
by cperk
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 1:48 pm
Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.
Texas is not in the clear.
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 2:37 pm
by Cpv17
cperk wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 2:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 1:48 pm
Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.
Texas is not in the clear.
Yeah it’s early. We’ll know more in a few days. I was just speaking as of now from what the models were showing before I saw the hard left turn on the Euro. My bad!!
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 2:43 pm
by snowman65
already has a name. we'll never survive this season....
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 2:53 pm
by srainhoutx
It might be time to move discussions for the potential Atlantic Basin tropical disturbance to the June thread since we will be done with May tonight?
Re: MAY 2020
Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 4:44 pm
by jasons2k
I was hoping for a little shower from that band that started to from along US 59 up towards Porter, but as quickly as it started to go-up, it started falling apart,