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The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.

don wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:16 pm The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.

Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 12:19 pm

JDsGN wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 11:45 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 11:09 am Rain chances are definitely on the rise for this weekend, especially for tomorrow. Models are looking quite yet.

First I’ve seen this. I wasn’t paying much attention because rain chances were near 0 for this weekend but I just checked and it’s 60%. What changed?

An ULL parked over the northern mountains of Mexico was originally forecasted to drift west away from us but now it’s slowly drifting east towards us and pumping in a lot of Gulf moisture.

Moisture fetch from the Gulf will be on the rise a lot too. P-Wats for tomorrow afternoon are foretasted to be over 2 inches in some parts which would be nearly two standard deviations above average. It really just depends on how much mid/upper level lift we get near the convective temperature. Either way plenty of moisture will be available.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:23 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:16 pm The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.

Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?

Models have the ULL moving over North Texas by early week, but is still something to monitor. With that said, models still show pretty strong westerlies across the gulf for much of the weak. IF anything forms in the gulf it's likely to be pretty sheared, but pretty typical for this time of the year. I'm still not sure how successful the Kelvin wave will be transitioning from the Pacific to the Atlantic. If anything, this setup reminds me of one of those deep into the BOC storms. Something to monitor for sure though.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:23 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 1:16 pm The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.

Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?

Yes it certainly could, but shear doesn't necessarily mean no development you can still have development of a weak to moderate lopsided tropical storm depending on how strong the shear is. Shear would help to keep the system in check though,from developing into anything more substantial. But as we all know here in Southeast Texas all it takes is a tropical storm to cause problems.Saying that if anything were to develop 9 times out of 10 this time of year it should be weak,but rainfall potential could be high due to monsoonal pacific moisture.

The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.

Yep, it will be time to watch the GOM next week. Hopefully only some tropical moisture and nothing else.

don wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 3:08 pm The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.

Many of those members are showing anywhere from
a strong tropical storm to a moderate cane.

should be fun...

GFS has a tropical system moving in followed by a mid-June cold front. The teasing starts early!

Amending - Euro, Canadian, ICON buying in as well to the tropical system.

ICON spins it up pretty good this run.

Yep

What happened to hot and dry that was forecast. Looks like a washout coming for Sunday

I can’t keep up. When I went to bed, my rain chances for today were 40%. When I woke-up, they had been lowered down to 20%. Lots of flip-flopping with the forecast this week.

This will be everchanging all week

S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 12:10 pm S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.

Yeah if that would be the case then SETX would be left and high and dry and LA would get hammered. Still a long ways out though.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 12:10 pm S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.

Wayyyyyy to far out to even have a long shot guess and any landfall location. This could just as well die out in Mexico. Nothing is certain but if/when this emerges into the BoC, we definitely need to be paying attention.

The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.

cperk wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 1:07 pm The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.

I still see 40-50%??