MAY 2020

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don
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by don » Sat May 30, 2020 12:16 pm

The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sat May 30, 2020 12:23 pm

don wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 12:16 pm
The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Andrew » Sat May 30, 2020 12:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:19 am
JDsGN wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:45 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:09 am
Rain chances are definitely on the rise for this weekend, especially for tomorrow. Models are looking quite yet.
First I’ve seen this. I wasn’t paying much attention because rain chances were near 0 for this weekend but I just checked and it’s 60%. What changed?
An ULL parked over the northern mountains of Mexico was originally forecasted to drift west away from us but now it’s slowly drifting east towards us and pumping in a lot of Gulf moisture.
Moisture fetch from the Gulf will be on the rise a lot too. P-Wats for tomorrow afternoon are foretasted to be over 2 inches in some parts which would be nearly two standard deviations above average. It really just depends on how much mid/upper level lift we get near the convective temperature. Either way plenty of moisture will be available.
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Andrew » Sat May 30, 2020 12:37 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 12:23 pm
don wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 12:16 pm
The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?
Models have the ULL moving over North Texas by early week, but is still something to monitor. With that said, models still show pretty strong westerlies across the gulf for much of the weak. IF anything forms in the gulf it's likely to be pretty sheared, but pretty typical for this time of the year. I'm still not sure how successful the Kelvin wave will be transitioning from the Pacific to the Atlantic. If anything, this setup reminds me of one of those deep into the BOC storms. Something to monitor for sure though.
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don
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by don » Sat May 30, 2020 12:41 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 12:23 pm
don wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 12:16 pm
The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?
Yes it certainly could, but shear doesn't necessarily mean no development you can still have development of a weak to moderate lopsided tropical storm depending on how strong the shear is. Shear would help to keep the system in check though,from developing into anything more substantial. But as we all know here in Southeast Texas all it takes is a tropical storm to cause problems.Saying that if anything were to develop 9 times out of 10 this time of year it should be weak,but rainfall potential could be high due to monsoonal pacific moisture.

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don
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by don » Sat May 30, 2020 2:08 pm

The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Sat May 30, 2020 2:20 pm

Yep, it will be time to watch the GOM next week. Hopefully only some tropical moisture and nothing else.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Sat May 30, 2020 4:25 pm

don wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 2:08 pm
The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.
Many of those members are showing anywhere from
a strong tropical storm to a moderate cane.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by snowman65 » Sat May 30, 2020 9:12 pm

should be fun...
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sat May 30, 2020 10:21 pm

GFS has a tropical system moving in followed by a mid-June cold front. The teasing starts early!

Amending - Euro, Canadian, ICON buying in as well to the tropical system.

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