MAY 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Pas_Bon » Wed May 20, 2020 7:49 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 6:42 pm
While you SE Texas folks are sweltering, it was 47F this morning in Western NC and it struggled to reach a high of 54F with rainfall and some of it very heavy. I still haven't turned on the A/C this year.

May you, Sir, suffer from tumultuous bowels for the remainder of May. 😂

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Thu May 21, 2020 7:45 am

Saw where early forecasts were hinting at nasty weather on memorial day (naturally)

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Thu May 21, 2020 9:58 am

It’s looking like the bullseye of precipitation over the next week or two will be over central Texas. With that said, it looks like we will get our fair share too, especially west of 45.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by CrashTestDummy » Thu May 21, 2020 2:00 pm

There were discussions of stalling lows/fronts in Texas the first of next week. Memorial Day stalled lows aren't good news. Hopefully, the stuff stays way north of us, and we just get a good watering, but nothing more.
Gene Beaird,
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by don » Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow]...

Radar is still pretty quiet right now and not seeing much to our W
and NW either. However, will keep some low POPs in for these areas
through the rest of the afternoon and into early evening as we ap-
proach peak heating. We`ll also have to keep an eye to the W/SW as
another shortwave (per WV imagery near DRT) continues to move east
tonight. At this time, not a lot of confidence with it holding to-
gether all the way into SE TX, but not going to argue with the 20%
POPs already in the grids for the overnight/early morning hours.

Another night of warmish temperatures expected as the onshore flow
persists. Lows will be in the mid and upper 70s. Morning low cloud
cover and possible mid/high clouds from activity out west will mix
out/move off by late tomorrow morning. Isolated/scattered activity
is expected by tomorrow afternoon via the seabreeze and/or any em-
bedded disturbances aloft (as the upper ridge has flattened). High
temperatures should range from the lower to mid 90s inland; mid to
upper 80s along the coast. 41


.LONG TERM [Tomorrow night through Thursday]...

The slow eastern progression of an northern Great Basin upper
trough/low will lower Southern Plains heights and finish what is
left of late work week shallow upper ridging. This general lowering
of Texas heights on Saturday will ultimately commence and maintain a
more cloudy, humid, wet and not-so-hot (yet very warm) mid to long
term late May period.

The possible evolution and northeastern track of a central Rio
Grande Valley upper low on Sunday, along with a large western upper
trough developing in its wake, will place the highest shower and
storm probabilities in during the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.
While the best upper level forcing and lower level jet placement
remains up north across northeastern Texas into Louisiana, our
chances for return precipitation remain relatively high from Days 3
through 8. Of course, the mesoscale will play a large role in the
timing of onset and regeneration but, in a broad paint roller-sense,
situational awareness needs to be much higher early next week for
the potential for late May severe weather.

Overcast and precipitation will knock down daily afternoon warmth
and, if rain/storms come through during the early to mid afternoon,
lower 80 maximum temperatures are not out of the question. High dew
points in the consistent lower to middle 70s will ensure many
mornings only `cool` down to these respective high dew points. Thus,
when not dealing with the rain, expect very warm, overcast and muggy
conditions to rule this period. 31


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Re: MAY 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri May 22, 2020 7:00 am

Latest QPF maps show basically a wall just to our NW.
Another feast or famine.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Fri May 22, 2020 7:01 am

Looking like an active and prolonged weather pattern developing across much of Texas that may extend until the first of June. The extended Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests impressive rainfall totals for the Lower Rio Grande Valley into the Hill Country and into the Western areas of SE Texas.

Next week could bring heavier rains closer to Metro Houston as well as multiple rounds of severe weather. It is probably wise to keep an eye to the sky as the blocking pattern with a big trough anchored over Texas and the Southern Plains looks stationary for at least the next week.
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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Fri May 22, 2020 11:25 am

Looks like this was a terrible decision to head west this weekend. We are going to be stuck indoors the entire time. Back home, barely a drop forecast.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri May 22, 2020 2:11 pm

Looks like the cap is breaking some today. Walker County and even Montgomery is in on it. I went on a walk earlier and noticed some updrafts not getting squashed be the cap. This wasn’t forecast for today....but I wasn’t supposed to get up to 95 degrees either.

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Re: MAY 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Fri May 22, 2020 3:43 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
425 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 500 PM CDT.

* At 425 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Huntsville
State Park, or near Huntsville, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, New Waverly and Huntsville State Park.


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

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