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It’s about that time we need to start paying attention to the tropics. Maybe someone with more knowledge than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but it looks like the 12z Euro has a tropical wave threatening the upper TX coastline towards the end of the run. Golden Triangle area gets a lot of rain on this run.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:39 pm It’s about that time we need to start paying attention to the tropics. Maybe someone with more knowledge than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but it looks like the 12z Euro has a tropical wave threatening the upper TX coastline towards the end of the run. Golden Triangle area gets a lot of rain on this run.

there's a surprise lol

Maybe it’s time to extend the hurricane season to May 15..

It’s gyre season folks! Time to start watching the monsoonal trough near the ITCZ. We have to watch the western Caribbean and southern GOM. There’s a strong signal for something to spin up down there around late May/early June and the EPS has us at above normal precip during that time period.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:39 pm It’s about that time we need to start paying attention to the tropics. Maybe someone with more knowledge than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but it looks like the 12z Euro has a tropical wave threatening the upper TX coastline towards the end of the run. Golden Triangle area gets a lot of rain on this run.

Can you post a pic for those of us who dont have access? TIA

My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 4:15 pm My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

92 here in Rosenberg.

djmike wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 2:02 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:39 pm It’s about that time we need to start paying attention to the tropics. Maybe someone with more knowledge than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but it looks like the 12z Euro has a tropical wave threatening the upper TX coastline towards the end of the run. Golden Triangle area gets a lot of rain on this run.

Can you post a pic for those of us who dont have access? TIA

I’ll see if I can figure it out later when I get home from work.

Big changes with the 12z model suite this afternoon. Things are looking wet again starting later this week into next week. Now we look for some consistency.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 4:15 pm My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

Yep. It feels like I shoved a bottle of El Yucateco up my backside and I am standing on my head. This weather is for the birds.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 7:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 4:15 pm My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

Yep. It feels like I shoved a bottle of El Yucateco up my backside and am standing in my head. This weather is for the birds.

Yeah, it’s too hot for me too. I’m good up to about 95. Anything over that is no fun.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 7:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 4:15 pm My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

Yep. It feels like I shoved a bottle of El Yucateco up my backside and I am standing on my head. This weather is for the birds.

92°F high here. A little hotter than expected. but our dewpoint dropped to 60°F before rising in the evening, so it could be and will be worse.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 7:40 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 7:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 4:15 pm My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

Yep. It feels like I shoved a bottle of El Yucateco up my backside and am standing in my head. This weather is for the birds.

Yeah, it’s too hot for me too. I’m good up to about 95. Anything over that is no fun.

That was the thing about Gainesville, FL. Rarely a day 95°F or over, especially after about June 10th when near daily showers began and we had some trade winds.

The consensus is lows in the 70s and DP around there for the remainder of the week. That sux.

GFS, Euro, Canadian, Ensemble all bring rain into the forecast next week, as the ridge breaks down.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020

.AVIATION...
Low cloud/Fog satellite imagery showing IFR ceilings spreading
N-NW at a pretty good clip. Might get some IFR cigs at KCLL and
KUTS through 14z. Drier air aloft should mix to the surface and
cigs should break up between 14-16z. Generally VFR conds expected
today and this evening but low clouds will make another appearance
after 09z with a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs. Could get a rogue shower or
isolated storm east of the TAF sites toward 12z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today Through Wednesday Night)...

Upper level ridging across Texas will remain in place through
Wednesday. At the surface a weak stationary front was located
across NE TX. Fcst soundings don`t show much in the way of
saturation today so would expect skies to remain mostly clear.
850 mb temperatures are very warm for this time of year with
values between 22.5 and 23.5 C across the area. This translates
to surface temperatures in the upper 90`s today. With full sun, a
warm start to the day and limited mixing, feel daytime high
temperatures will approach the upper 90`s today. There will be
some mixing and dew points will remain in the mid/upper 60`s so
heat index values will stay near the ambient temperature. The
normal high temperature this time of year is around 86-87 degrees.
Will probably get some record high temperatures across the CWA
today.

At first glance was going to keep things dry tonight but
with the stationary front over the NE zones and weak mid level
forcing, feel a few showers and isolated thunderstorms could skirt
the CWA border with SHV and LCH. Low level moisture will increase
tonight and mostly cloudy skies are expected by morning. The
clouds will insulate and warmer overnight temperatures are
expected.

On Wednesday, 850 mb temperatures cool to between 21.5 and 22.5 C
and sfc temperatures will also cool by a few degrees. Could also
be a bit more cloud cover in the morning and again late in the
afternoon. High temperatures will probably top out in the lower
and middle 90`s. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday through Wednesday]...

The heat continues on Thursday, but the upper level ridge begins to
break down as a short wave moves through the area. This will mainly
bring increasing clouds through the day on Thursday for our area
with a slight chance of showers across the northern counties
Thursday night. Friday will be the start to a fairly wet rest of the
long term period as another disturbance moves through the area.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement with the timing of the
precipitation on Friday happening mainly in the afternoon and into
the evening hours. The Canadian does strengthen the shortwave a bit
more compared to the GFS and EC bringing stronger storms into the
area overnight Friday. Lingering moisture will cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms to continue on Saturday.

A large upper level trough is expected to drop down from the Pacific
Northwest late Saturday into Sunday morning. As this trough
propagates eastward on Sunday, a shortwave rounding the trough will
cause precipitation over SE Texas late Sunday into Monday morning.
Instead of this shortwave continuing eastward like the preceding
disturbances, it will get captured by the large upper level trough
stalling it over the area on Monday. As the upper level trough
absorbs the shortwave, it closes off and stalls over Texas through
at least midweek (or beyond) as it can`t move eastward thanks to
another stalled low downstream.

There looks to be quite the interesting upper level pattern across
CONUS next week as three cutoff lows stall: a low off the coast of
California, a second low over Texas, then a third low near Bermuda.
This creates a sorta double Omega Block pattern across the US. GFS,
EC, and Canadian show this setup, but with spatial displacements in
the locations of the stalled lows. A lot can change between now and
midweek next week, but if the middle low does stall over Texas, then
our area can look forward to a prolonged period of wet, cloudy
conditions through most of next week.

Fowler

MARINE...
A light to moderate onshore flow is expected through the end of
the week with high pressure over FL and lower pressures over West
Texas. The pressure gradient will tighten over the weekend and
wind speeds will likely increase. The stronger speeds and
persistent long fetch will yield slightly higher seas. 43

CLIMATE...
Looks like there will be a few high temperature records
established today.

Site Prev Record Todays Fcst

KCLL 94 2006 95
KIAH 95 2003 96
KHOU 94 2008 95
KGLS 87 2018 87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 71 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 96 73 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 75 84 75 85 / 0 10 0 0 0

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Near record highs likely today across the region.

Upper level high pressure continues to build over the area and this will result in near record or record heat this afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid and upper 90’s over much of the area. Humidity values still remain fairly low by SE TX standards, so heat index values will be close to the actual air temperature. Southerly winds increase in Wednesday and allow greater humidity values to move into the region. This will support heat index values of 98-102 during the afternoon hours through Thursday

Late Week/Weekend:
Deep tropical moisture gathering over the western Caribbean Sea will begin to track toward the TX coast by Thursday into Friday. While aloft over TX, the strong ridge of high pressure breaks down allowing the formation of another slow moving upper level low. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will return as early as Friday and increase over the weekend and into next week with deep moisture in place and a blocky upper air pattern aloft keeping storm systems from moving eastward. I am a bit leary of the rainfall potential after last week, when global models forecasted a similar setup and the upper level trough became more progressive over time. This time around, however the pattern looks much slower with a stalling upper level system. Still lots of time to work out the details on greatest rain chances and amounts.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 7:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 4:15 pm My thermometer reads 97F. It’s hot.

Yep. It feels like I shoved a bottle of El Yucateco up my backside and I am standing on my head. This weather is for the birds.

Man I thought I was the biggest hot weather hater in a Texas looks like I was wrong.

Too hot for the yard work I had to do earlier, thats for sure. Let's hurry up and get back to fall.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 5:34 pm Too hot for the yard work I had to do earlier, thats for sure. Let's hurry up and get back to fall.

On Storm 2K, one of the more educated guys on there is saying this summer could be like 2007. Boy, would that be nice!!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 5:52 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 5:34 pm Too hot for the yard work I had to do earlier, thats for sure. Let's hurry up and get back to fall.

On Storm 2K, one of the more educated guys on there is saying this summer could be like 2007. Boy, would that be nice!!

I didn’t become a Texan until 2013 (from SW Louisiana, so similar climate). Please educate me as to what the 2007 Summer was like....