MAY 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
BlueJay
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Ding. Ding. Round two for me.
Cpv17
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Atmosphere south of 10 must be capped. Storms exploding north of there.
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:55 pm Atmosphere south of 10 must be capped. Storms exploding north of there.
Lol just my luck. It literally dropped fat rain drops for 3 seconds and that’s all I’ve had today. Once again everywhere N and E of me getting good rains.
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:02 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:55 pm Atmosphere south of 10 must be capped. Storms exploding north of there.
Lol just my luck. It literally dropped fat rain drops for 3 seconds and that’s all I’ve had today. Once again everywhere N and E of me getting good rains.
Lol yeah and I was watching the forecast last night and they had most of the rain southwest of Houston and it’s barely even rained anywhere south of Houston.
Cpv17
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There’s a tropical storm in the BOC on the 12z Euro on day 9 and 10. Looks like it wants to move northeast though towards Florida.
Cpv17
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Guys I really feel like we should temper our expectations for this week. I know rain chances are high for the whole week, but I’m just not really seeing a situation where anyone receives any significant rainfall. Models aren’t suggesting any training going on. All I’m seeing is just a chance of widely scattered showers and storms building up each day. I think most of us will average around 2-3”. Definitely don’t see anything that suggests any flooding going on.
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:18 pm Guys I really feel like we should temper our expectations for this week. I know rain chances are high for the whole week, but I’m just not really seeing a situation where anyone receives any significant rainfall. Models aren’t suggesting any training going on. All I’m seeing is just a chance of widely scattered showers and storms building up each day. I think most of us will average around 2-3”. Definitely don’t see anything that suggests any flooding going on.
Completely agree. Every model run over the last few days and today has all of those MCS’s out W dying out before getting to us. Not really any left over outflow boundaries either. Just run of the mill convective T’storms but with more coverage over the area. Time will tell since models don’t really handle these types of systems all that well from what I’ve seen over the years.
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:09 pm
davidiowx wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:02 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:55 pm Atmosphere south of 10 must be capped. Storms exploding north of there.
Lol just my luck. It literally dropped fat rain drops for 3 seconds and that’s all I’ve had today. Once again everywhere N and E of me getting good rains.
Lol yeah and I was watching the forecast last night and they had most of the rain southwest of Houston and it’s barely even rained anywhere south of Houston.
Yep! I don’t recall seeing this widespread of activity either. Models really don’t have a handle on it. Just wait and see what happens! I guess the only plus side is we are all still in the Rona era so most people shouldn’t have had major travel plans or anything to have to worry about weather interfering.
davidiowx
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Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
TXC201-339-473-242200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0018.200524T2130Z-200524T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
430 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 500 PM CDT.

* At 430 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Hockley, or 11 miles southwest of Tomball, moving
north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Stagecoach around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2999 9576 3000 9585 3020 9590 3017 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 194DEG 6KT 3003 9580

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 3:18 pm Guys I really feel like we should temper our expectations for this week. I know rain chances are high for the whole week, but I’m just not really seeing a situation where anyone receives any significant rainfall. Models aren’t suggesting any training going on. All I’m seeing is just a chance of widely scattered showers and storms building up each day. I think most of us will average around 2-3”. Definitely don’t see anything that suggests any flooding going on.
Maybe not major flooding, but street flooding is a real possibility in urban areas,it doesn't take much rain for streets to fill up in Houston. The reality though as these kind of events are very mesoscale driven and even in the short range it is sometimes hard for the models to really pinpoint the nature of convective activity, and locations even within 24 hours. Today is a example of that i don't think any of the models were showing the amount of storm coverage that is going on right now north of I-10 and all the way into Oklahoma. Please be weather aware this week as models will likely continue to struggle due to the largely mesoscale driven nature of this setup. And while excessive rain is not likely it cannot be completely ruled out either,especially if any kind of core rain event ends up setting up around the low as we've seen sometimes in pass cutoff low situations.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

tornado warning dropped but severe t'storm warning continues - green clouds, looked nasty north of us

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/

Image

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
457 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 457 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bellville,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Brenham, Hempstead and Bellville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2985 9629 2991 9649 3022 9639 3012 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 203DEG 15KT 2994 9636

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
TJC
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don
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Looks like the MCS is slowly moving south towards the I-10 corridor.
davidiowx
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I was thinking the same thing. Seems like storms may be turning towards the south (or reforming in that direction anyways). I noticed the NAM was showing this this morning. It basically showed some convection going in every different direction lol
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

check out "rotation" option, choose auto update & loop - can change loop criteria

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXC201-339-473-242315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0034.200524T2215Z-200524T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-Montgomery TX-Waller TX-
515 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have
fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southern Conroe, Tomball, Pinehurst, The Woodlands, Spring,
Hockley, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Magnolia, Stagecoach, Hooks
Airport, Cypress, Willowbrook, The Woodlands Pavillion, Splashtown
and Chateau Woods.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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DoctorMu
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Major outflow boundary from the MCS heading toward Jason and Houston.
dp6
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Just curious, why is the Houston NWS office the only one in the region that hasn't issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook? Every other office in Texas except El Paso had one out this morning. As did most of LA, AR, MO, all of OK, and extending further north. This seems to happen a lot. Any reason why the Houston office likes to be the exception?
Cpv17
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Meanwhile down here in Wharton County we’re frying in the pan. Thank goodness there’s a decent breeze blowing.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1264689328308940800
Image
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
646 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242245Z - 250400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are expected to
increase in coverage and intensity this evening across portions of
south-central Texas. Flash flooding will be possible for those
areas that experience training convection or cell mergers, with
rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour at times.

DISCUSSION...An increasingly favorable atmospheric environment for
thunderstorms with very heavy rain will exist across portions of
south central Texas through the remainder of the evening hours.
Discrete thunderstorm clusters have developed over the Rio Grande
Valley and are slowly progressing eastward, and a well-developed
outflow boundary is moving towards the southwest from the MCS that
developed over eastern Texas this afternoon. In combination with
an approaching mid-level vortmax from the west, low level boundary
interactions in a very unstable airmass with 3000 to 4000 J/kg of
MLCAPE should provide enough lift to generate additional
thunderstorms over the next several hours.

Another area of more immediate concern will be the nearly
stationary band of storms that have developed along the southern
portion of the outflow boundary across southeast Texas. A steady
flow of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, advecting nearly 2
inch PWs northward over that boundary, is fueling this convection.
These cells are producing rainfall rates on the order of 1.5 to
2.5 inches per hour, perhaps locally higher, and a flash flood
threat continues to exist here.

In terms of the high resolution guidance, there has been a
consistent signal in the past few runs of the HRRR and the
experimental HRRR for patchy areas of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals
through 11 pm local time. It appears that the guidance is
underdone with the convection that currently exists northwest of
Houston based on current radar trends.

Hamrick

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...
Last edited by unome on Sun May 24, 2020 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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