MAY 2020
The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?
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Moisture fetch from the Gulf will be on the rise a lot too. P-Wats for tomorrow afternoon are foretasted to be over 2 inches in some parts which would be nearly two standard deviations above average. It really just depends on how much mid/upper level lift we get near the convective temperature. Either way plenty of moisture will be available.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 30, 2020 12:19 pmAn ULL parked over the northern mountains of Mexico was originally forecasted to drift west away from us but now it’s slowly drifting east towards us and pumping in a lot of Gulf moisture.
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Models have the ULL moving over North Texas by early week, but is still something to monitor. With that said, models still show pretty strong westerlies across the gulf for much of the weak. IF anything forms in the gulf it's likely to be pretty sheared, but pretty typical for this time of the year. I'm still not sure how successful the Kelvin wave will be transitioning from the Pacific to the Atlantic. If anything, this setup reminds me of one of those deep into the BOC storms. Something to monitor for sure though.
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Yes it certainly could, but shear doesn't necessarily mean no development you can still have development of a weak to moderate lopsided tropical storm depending on how strong the shear is. Shear would help to keep the system in check though,from developing into anything more substantial. But as we all know here in Southeast Texas all it takes is a tropical storm to cause problems.Saying that if anything were to develop 9 times out of 10 this time of year it should be weak,but rainfall potential could be high due to monsoonal pacific moisture.
The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.
GFS has a tropical system moving in followed by a mid-June cold front. The teasing starts early!
Amending - Euro, Canadian, ICON buying in as well to the tropical system.
Amending - Euro, Canadian, ICON buying in as well to the tropical system.
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ICON spins it up pretty good this run.
Yep
What happened to hot and dry that was forecast. Looks like a washout coming for Sunday
I can’t keep up. When I went to bed, my rain chances for today were 40%. When I woke-up, they had been lowered down to 20%. Lots of flip-flopping with the forecast this week.
S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.
Wayyyyyy to far out to even have a long shot guess and any landfall location. This could just as well die out in Mexico. Nothing is certain but if/when this emerges into the BoC, we definitely need to be paying attention.
The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.
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