it is a well earned, perfectly gorgeous late May evening in SE TX, that is all....
later, storms may come, temps rise, humidity climb, but grab the moment & enjoy it...
stay safe y'all & keep those loved ones lost in your hearts this Memorial Day
MAY 2020
Some models are saying a strong line comes through at 3-4 and some are saying a weak line closer to 8.
If what is in San Antonio makes it to here, I’ll take the 3am prediction, or sooner.
Yeah, it's coming together now. Strongest part is along and south of I-10. Seems to be the theme with these nighttime systems.
Really rocking as of 1 AM
The storms are weakening, but the Houston area will see some rain.
Maybe a tenth or two up in CLL, even with potent lightning and thunder south of us.
Maybe a tenth or two up in CLL, even with potent lightning and thunder south of us.
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3440
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Got some strong thunder and lightning here. Third round of storms for me over the last two days so no complaints here. It will be interesting to see if the atmosphere can recover this evening to spark additional scattered thunderstorms.
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I managed another .54” overnight. Not bad. It’s been nice to get regular rainfall without having to deal with flooding issues.
The long-term forecast is drying out too. A couple of days ago, the NWS had me forecast at a 60% chance of rain this coming Saturday. Now, it’s down to 30%.
The long-term forecast is drying out too. A couple of days ago, the NWS had me forecast at a 60% chance of rain this coming Saturday. Now, it’s down to 30%.
We’ve gotten over 3” here in Wharton County from this event. All good here.
My forecast high today was 82 degrees. Already up to 80 and rising fast with the sun.
I think there may be a bit more fuel today than they thought.
I think there may be a bit more fuel today than they thought.
So is that it? Last week and weekend qpf and many BPT mets made it seem like it was gonna be a possible flooding event. We got maybe two moderate rain showers and that was it. Looks like nothing forecasted really but maybe a 30-40% pop up showers remaining of the week. I was expecting washouts all Sun-Tues. NWS at one point showed 70% for Tues wed and thurs...oh well, blessed to have gotten some rain.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Yeah I started changing my tune on it on Friday when models started cutting back quite a bit on total qpf.djmike wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 12:31 pm So is that it? Last week and weekend qpf and many BPT mets made it seem like it was gonna be a possible flooding event. We got maybe two moderate rain showers and that was it. Looks like nothing forecasted really but maybe a 30-40% pop up showers remaining of the week. I was expecting washouts all Sun-Tues. NWS at one point showed 70% for Tues wed and thurs...oh well, blessed to have gotten some rain.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of central Texas
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, with lesser
severe-weather potential over parts of the central Gulf Coast
region, and coastal Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A large/slow-moving upper low -- centered over the Arklatex vicinity
-- will remain the dominant feature of interest over the U.S. this
period, with rather high-amplitude ridging (over the western
Atlantic and southwestern U.S.) flanking this low on either side.
At the surface, a relatively weak/nondescript pattern will prevail.
A weak low should evolve over central Texas as a vorticity lobe
pivots southeastward around the upper low, while a second/weak low
drifts northward near the southeastern U.S. coast.
...Central Texas...
Weak low pressure development is expected to occur over the Texas
South Plains area early Wednesday and then drift eastward into
central Texas with time, as a lobe of vorticity -- and associated
mid-level speed max -- rotate southeastward around the upper low.
As this occurs, low-level flow will turn southerly across roughly
the southern half of Texas, with a weakly baroclinic convergence
zone expected to evolve in a west-northwest to east-southeast
orientation across central Texas by afternoon.
Northward advection of higher theta-e air at low levels beneath
rather steep mid-level lapse rates will combine with daytime heating
to yield moderate afternoon destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE
climbing into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will support storm
development by mid afternoon near the low and associated convergence
zone, as DPVA spreads southeastward across central Texas.
Given favorable shear expected to evolve with time (southerly to
south-southeasterly low-level winds veering/increasing to 50-plus kt
from the northwest at mid levels), storms should quickly
organize/acquire rotation. As such -- and aided by the increasingly
unstable environment -- very large hail will be possible with the
initial supercellular storm development, along with risk for locally
damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. With time, some upscale
growth of storms is possible, into a mix of both cellular and banded
modes. Damaging wind potential may increase into early evening with
some potential for southeastward propagation of convective bands,
before the activity peaks, and then begins to diminish, into the
evening hours.
...Central Gulf Coast area...
As a vorticity lobe -- associated with a 50 kt mid-level jet streak
-- rotates around the upper low into the central Gulf Coast region,
afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the area.
Questions persist as to the degree of destabilization that will
occur given rather weak lapse rates aloft, and low-level convergence
appears likely to remain weak overall, without a well-defined
synoptic surface boundary. Still, with mid-level flow increasing
with time, shear will be sufficient to support updraft organization.
As such, a few stronger storms may evolve across parts of eastern
Louisiana and southeast Mississippi,spreading northeastward across
parts of Alabama and vicinity through the afternoon. Given
associated potential for hail/wind with a couple of the stronger
cells, parts of the area are being upgraded to MRGL risk.
...Coastal South Carolina/adjacent southeastern North Carolina...
A weak surface low near the southern SC coast at the beginning of
the period is forecast to drift northward throughout the day.
Showers and a few thunderstorms on the northern and eastern
periphery of the low should continue spreading inland from the
western Atlantic, within a modestly unstable onshore environment.
Enhanced southeasterly low-level winds may support some low-level
rotation, with a brief tornado and/or locally strong wind gusts
possible, particularly through the morning and into the afternoon
hours.
..Goss.. 05/26/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1752Z (12:52PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of central Texas
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, with lesser
severe-weather potential over parts of the central Gulf Coast
region, and coastal Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A large/slow-moving upper low -- centered over the Arklatex vicinity
-- will remain the dominant feature of interest over the U.S. this
period, with rather high-amplitude ridging (over the western
Atlantic and southwestern U.S.) flanking this low on either side.
At the surface, a relatively weak/nondescript pattern will prevail.
A weak low should evolve over central Texas as a vorticity lobe
pivots southeastward around the upper low, while a second/weak low
drifts northward near the southeastern U.S. coast.
...Central Texas...
Weak low pressure development is expected to occur over the Texas
South Plains area early Wednesday and then drift eastward into
central Texas with time, as a lobe of vorticity -- and associated
mid-level speed max -- rotate southeastward around the upper low.
As this occurs, low-level flow will turn southerly across roughly
the southern half of Texas, with a weakly baroclinic convergence
zone expected to evolve in a west-northwest to east-southeast
orientation across central Texas by afternoon.
Northward advection of higher theta-e air at low levels beneath
rather steep mid-level lapse rates will combine with daytime heating
to yield moderate afternoon destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE
climbing into the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will support storm
development by mid afternoon near the low and associated convergence
zone, as DPVA spreads southeastward across central Texas.
Given favorable shear expected to evolve with time (southerly to
south-southeasterly low-level winds veering/increasing to 50-plus kt
from the northwest at mid levels), storms should quickly
organize/acquire rotation. As such -- and aided by the increasingly
unstable environment -- very large hail will be possible with the
initial supercellular storm development, along with risk for locally
damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. With time, some upscale
growth of storms is possible, into a mix of both cellular and banded
modes. Damaging wind potential may increase into early evening with
some potential for southeastward propagation of convective bands,
before the activity peaks, and then begins to diminish, into the
evening hours.
...Central Gulf Coast area...
As a vorticity lobe -- associated with a 50 kt mid-level jet streak
-- rotates around the upper low into the central Gulf Coast region,
afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the area.
Questions persist as to the degree of destabilization that will
occur given rather weak lapse rates aloft, and low-level convergence
appears likely to remain weak overall, without a well-defined
synoptic surface boundary. Still, with mid-level flow increasing
with time, shear will be sufficient to support updraft organization.
As such, a few stronger storms may evolve across parts of eastern
Louisiana and southeast Mississippi,spreading northeastward across
parts of Alabama and vicinity through the afternoon. Given
associated potential for hail/wind with a couple of the stronger
cells, parts of the area are being upgraded to MRGL risk.
...Coastal South Carolina/adjacent southeastern North Carolina...
A weak surface low near the southern SC coast at the beginning of
the period is forecast to drift northward throughout the day.
Showers and a few thunderstorms on the northern and eastern
periphery of the low should continue spreading inland from the
western Atlantic, within a modestly unstable onshore environment.
Enhanced southeasterly low-level winds may support some low-level
rotation, with a brief tornado and/or locally strong wind gusts
possible, particularly through the morning and into the afternoon
hours.
..Goss.. 05/26/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1752Z (12:52PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Convective temps were supposed to be in the low 80’s today according to the NWS overnight discussion.
It’s 90 degrees at my place and there is nothing at all on the radar scope.
It’s 90 degrees at my place and there is nothing at all on the radar scope.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
91l - TAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS
I bet Steve is happy
I bet Steve is happy
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
91L - takes this little storm into the Carolinas
I bet Steve is happy
I bet Steve is happy
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Yeah and that storm moving into NW Montgomery County / SW Walker County looks pretty intense too.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
.SHORT TERM...
Mostly sunny across the region with CU and temperatures in the mid
80s. Light west and northwest winds across the northern half of the
region and coastal areas mixing out with southwesterly winds.
Shortwave approaching the northwest counties and should help to
further destabilize the atmosphere with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms initially near Caldwell expanding south
and southeast then east into the evening hours. Still thinking the
main area should be Columbus to the Woodlands to Cleveland northward.
Additional storms may develop near Galveston Bay and areas to the
east as speed max arrives late afternoon. With the loss of heating
should see a rapid decrease in coverage. Pleasant night on tap with
drier air firmly in place. Wednesday should dawn mostly clear and
warm up quickly with the upper level pattern little changed other
than a slight eastward shift. Again expect a s/w to wrap around the
southwest side of the low and initiate showers and thunderstorms to
the NW of the area that expand southeastward. Earlier model runs
were mainly focused northwest of the area but recent trends continue
to support an expansion southeastward. Models differ substantially
on the temperature/moisture profiles and hence instability. At this
point given the cooling aloft and weak to moderate mid level forcing
have opted to go with 30-50 POPs for areas along and north of I-10.
Hail looks possible but not convinced that large hail is a concern.
SPC does have a slight risk over the west and enhanced clips the
westernmost areas around Caldwell. Storms may start out slow but
with increasing development would expect storms to speed up on their
northeastward evolution. Storms capable of quick 0.5-1.5" of
rainfall but don't expect any flooding concerns. Storms should
slowly shift southward leading into the evening hours pushing south
for more on that see the long term.
45
&&
.LONG TERM...
Some showers and thunderstorms will continue moving generally to
the southeast across the area Wednesday evening, and instability
might be high enough for some of the thunderstorms to be strong/
severe. We'll have to see how much stability develops after these
storms move on through, but we'll be keeping rain chances in the
forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday (higher risk up north
and northeast, lower risk near the coast) as possible weak
disturbances continue to rotate in from the north and northwest
along the back side of a slow moving storm system. This system
begins to weaken and lift on out at the end of the week, and upper
level ridging starts to develop over the weekend and on into next
week and dries the area out. This pattern change will eventually
bring warmer temperatures back to Southeast Texas too, especially
as we head on into next week when southeast winds become a little
more established. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Much lighter winds the norm through late week. A series of weak
fronts/outflow/surface troughs will drift through the UTCW and
bringing varying winds while generally in the 5-10 knot range. Seas
should continue to slowly lessen tonight. Going into Friday a cold
front pushes through the area prior to sunrise and winds increase
with SCEC conditions looking likely but short lived. North or
northeast flow through the weekend but may be a little stronger.
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage.
Tide levels should slowly diminish through Wednesday night.
Monday marks the start of the official hurricane season though
mother nature has already thrown one monkey wrench into the works
with Arthur and now a second area is being watched with a possible
invest off the east coast of FL.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 123 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/
AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with and
after peak heating as s/w approaches. As of now the terminals that
may have to deal with TSRA should be limited to CLL/UTS and
possibly CXO. Then overnight skies clearing and VFR prevails.
Tomorrow afternoon heads up could see scattered SHRA/TSRA with
impacts from area of showers developing and intensifying as they
spread into the region from the west and northwest.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 85 65 86 66 / 10 40 40 30 10
Houston (IAH) 69 87 69 89 70 / 20 30 30 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 86 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
.SHORT TERM...
Mostly sunny across the region with CU and temperatures in the mid
80s. Light west and northwest winds across the northern half of the
region and coastal areas mixing out with southwesterly winds.
Shortwave approaching the northwest counties and should help to
further destabilize the atmosphere with isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms initially near Caldwell expanding south
and southeast then east into the evening hours. Still thinking the
main area should be Columbus to the Woodlands to Cleveland northward.
Additional storms may develop near Galveston Bay and areas to the
east as speed max arrives late afternoon. With the loss of heating
should see a rapid decrease in coverage. Pleasant night on tap with
drier air firmly in place. Wednesday should dawn mostly clear and
warm up quickly with the upper level pattern little changed other
than a slight eastward shift. Again expect a s/w to wrap around the
southwest side of the low and initiate showers and thunderstorms to
the NW of the area that expand southeastward. Earlier model runs
were mainly focused northwest of the area but recent trends continue
to support an expansion southeastward. Models differ substantially
on the temperature/moisture profiles and hence instability. At this
point given the cooling aloft and weak to moderate mid level forcing
have opted to go with 30-50 POPs for areas along and north of I-10.
Hail looks possible but not convinced that large hail is a concern.
SPC does have a slight risk over the west and enhanced clips the
westernmost areas around Caldwell. Storms may start out slow but
with increasing development would expect storms to speed up on their
northeastward evolution. Storms capable of quick 0.5-1.5" of
rainfall but don't expect any flooding concerns. Storms should
slowly shift southward leading into the evening hours pushing south
for more on that see the long term.
45
&&
.LONG TERM...
Some showers and thunderstorms will continue moving generally to
the southeast across the area Wednesday evening, and instability
might be high enough for some of the thunderstorms to be strong/
severe. We'll have to see how much stability develops after these
storms move on through, but we'll be keeping rain chances in the
forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday (higher risk up north
and northeast, lower risk near the coast) as possible weak
disturbances continue to rotate in from the north and northwest
along the back side of a slow moving storm system. This system
begins to weaken and lift on out at the end of the week, and upper
level ridging starts to develop over the weekend and on into next
week and dries the area out. This pattern change will eventually
bring warmer temperatures back to Southeast Texas too, especially
as we head on into next week when southeast winds become a little
more established. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Much lighter winds the norm through late week. A series of weak
fronts/outflow/surface troughs will drift through the UTCW and
bringing varying winds while generally in the 5-10 knot range. Seas
should continue to slowly lessen tonight. Going into Friday a cold
front pushes through the area prior to sunrise and winds increase
with SCEC conditions looking likely but short lived. North or
northeast flow through the weekend but may be a little stronger.
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage.
Tide levels should slowly diminish through Wednesday night.
Monday marks the start of the official hurricane season though
mother nature has already thrown one monkey wrench into the works
with Arthur and now a second area is being watched with a possible
invest off the east coast of FL.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 123 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/
AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with and
after peak heating as s/w approaches. As of now the terminals that
may have to deal with TSRA should be limited to CLL/UTS and
possibly CXO. Then overnight skies clearing and VFR prevails.
Tomorrow afternoon heads up could see scattered SHRA/TSRA with
impacts from area of showers developing and intensifying as they
spread into the region from the west and northwest.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 85 65 86 66 / 10 40 40 30 10
Houston (IAH) 69 87 69 89 70 / 20 30 30 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 86 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
they heard you
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
TXZ177>179-199-262130-
San Jacinto TX-Walker TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-
351 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Waverly, or 9 miles northwest of Willis, moving east at 15 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Huntsville, New Waverly, Coldspring, Point Blank,
Huntsville State Park, Oakhurst and Evergreen.
LAT...LON 3044 9560 3062 9565 3081 9520 3061 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 254DEG 12KT 3056 9555
$$