MAY 2020
Looks to pass to my north. Something was trying to get going from Hempstead to Bellville to Sealy (what would have eventually come this way) but it fizzled. Lucy just making sure we know she’s still around.
Pretty ugly out towards the golden triangle (like usual)
Well there is still a 60% chance of rain forecast for me tomorrow night. We’ll see if it’s still that way when I wake-up.
what's with the gfs throwing up a Gulf storm in the first week of June to the 10th???
Keeping an eye on that persistent line backbuilding near Galveston Bay - could throw a wrench into tomorrows's inflow if it doesn't stop or move out.
I'd rather not see a Gulf storm in June. We'll be in Florida for our beach vacation. I always plan it in June to avoid the peak of the season. It's never been an issue for us, but who knows with this year. We already had to cancel Disney - I'll be pretty PO'd if our beach plans get ruined too.
I'd rather not see a Gulf storm in June. We'll be in Florida for our beach vacation. I always plan it in June to avoid the peak of the season. It's never been an issue for us, but who knows with this year. We already had to cancel Disney - I'll be pretty PO'd if our beach plans get ruined too.
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srainhoutx
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TS Bertha formed very quickly this morning 3 hours prior to making landfall near Mount Pleasant SC. It's been raining off and on daily for 2 weeks up here in the mountains. Fortunately the latest HRRR suggests we may escape the heavier rainfall in the far Western NC Mountains.Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 2:59 pm 91L - takes this little storm into the Carolinas
I bet Steve is happy
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SPC extends slight risk further to the east, looking at the HRRR model it looks like today may be a little more active than anticipated around here. As the HRRR shows two rounds of storms today fwiw.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today over central Texas and
vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes
possible.
...TX...
An upper low is present today over northeast TX, with a band of
stronger northwesterly flow aloft extending from northwest into
southeast TX. Model guidance suggests that mid level heights will
rise through the day, but that several smaller-scale vorticity
maxima are rotating around the upper low and will affect central TX.
These will lead to clusters of intense thunderstorms from early
afternoon through evening.
A few storms have already begun to form south of the Dallas-Ft Worth
area. More widespread storms will develop by mid afternoon as the
air mass continues to moisten/destabilize. Low level winds will not
be particularly strong, but deep layer shear will be favorable for
organized/rotating storms. This combined with MLCAPE values of 2500
J/kg will pose a risk of very large hail. Damaging wind potential
should increase during the evening as storms congeal and spread
toward the middle/upper TX Gulf Coast.
...Gulf Coast States...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is in place today from
LA/MS eastward into parts of AL/FL/GA. A weak upper trough off the
LA coast will lift northeastward today, providing subtle lift across
the region and helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Mid and
upper level winds are stronger than yesterday, which may help the
more intense storms to organize and pose a risk of locally
strong/damaging wind gusts.
...SC/NC...
TS Bertha has moved inland over SC, and will continue to drift
slowly northward. The envelope of stronger low-level winds is
small, and the convective nature of storms have shown little
tendency for cellular structures thus far. Nevertheless, will
maintain a narrow corridor of MRGL risk for brief tornadoes through
the afternoon and evening where CAM solutions suggest there is some
potential.
..Hart/Bentley.. 05/27/2020
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today over central Texas and
vicinity, where very large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes
possible.
...TX...
An upper low is present today over northeast TX, with a band of
stronger northwesterly flow aloft extending from northwest into
southeast TX. Model guidance suggests that mid level heights will
rise through the day, but that several smaller-scale vorticity
maxima are rotating around the upper low and will affect central TX.
These will lead to clusters of intense thunderstorms from early
afternoon through evening.
A few storms have already begun to form south of the Dallas-Ft Worth
area. More widespread storms will develop by mid afternoon as the
air mass continues to moisten/destabilize. Low level winds will not
be particularly strong, but deep layer shear will be favorable for
organized/rotating storms. This combined with MLCAPE values of 2500
J/kg will pose a risk of very large hail. Damaging wind potential
should increase during the evening as storms congeal and spread
toward the middle/upper TX Gulf Coast.
...Gulf Coast States...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is in place today from
LA/MS eastward into parts of AL/FL/GA. A weak upper trough off the
LA coast will lift northeastward today, providing subtle lift across
the region and helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Mid and
upper level winds are stronger than yesterday, which may help the
more intense storms to organize and pose a risk of locally
strong/damaging wind gusts.
...SC/NC...
TS Bertha has moved inland over SC, and will continue to drift
slowly northward. The envelope of stronger low-level winds is
small, and the convective nature of storms have shown little
tendency for cellular structures thus far. Nevertheless, will
maintain a narrow corridor of MRGL risk for brief tornadoes through
the afternoon and evening where CAM solutions suggest there is some
potential.
..Hart/Bentley.. 05/27/2020
Worth reading from the overnight AFD from NWS HGX:
Beyond 240 hours? Why are you asking beyond 240 hours? If beyond
240 hours you go, only pain will you find. Yes, I see what the
GFS is doing way out there, and I bring it up for the SOLE.
PURPOSE. of being a buzzkill. We are now approaching the time of
year when the GFS loves to generate tropical cyclones in the
western Gulf out of the Central American Gyre in its extended
range. The GFS does this...a lot. Every once in a great while, it
happens in real life, too! So, if someone starts buzzing about
the hurricane in the Gulf in two weeks, let us all take a deep
breath and remember that far more likely than not, this is just
the GFS reminding us that it is almost June, and nothing more.
Regardless of what one model says about a couple weeks out, it is
almost hurricane season, and we should be working on being
prepared for anything that may come in the next several months as
a matter of course.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed May 27, 2020 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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- Contact:
Need to monitor those storms near Waco for possible activity in the SE Texas area this afternoon around rush hour...
Mesoscale Discussion 0739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271708Z - 271915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of severe thunderstorm development has
seemed more probable later this afternoon near or north of the
Edwards Plateau vicinity. However, further increase and
intensification of thunderstorms now south of the Dallas-Forth Worth
Metroplex seems probable, and could be accompanied by increasing
risk for severe hail and wind to the west of the Interstate 45
corridor through 19-21Z. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development to the south of the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex probably has been aided by an initial
area of strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with
an impulse pivoting around the larger-scale south central Plains
mid-level low. This appears to have been supported by relatively
weak CAPE, due to seasonably modest low-level moisture around the
Metroplex. And model output has indicated a greater convective
signal with a forecast increase in forcing for ascent with another
perturbation, roughly around the Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood areas
during the 19-21Z time frame.
However, southeast of the ongoing storms, heating of a more moist
boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) is already
well underway, with mixed-layer CAPE likely to continue to increase
in excess of 2000 J/kg through early to mid afternoon. Increasing
southeasterly inflow of this air, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly
500 mb flow, probably will support substantive further updraft
intensification, and upscale convective growth over the next few
hours. This may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail,
and favorable shear could contribute to the evolution of an
increasingly organized convective system with potential for
producing strong wind gusts, near/west of the Interstate-45
corridor.
..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271708Z - 271915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of severe thunderstorm development has
seemed more probable later this afternoon near or north of the
Edwards Plateau vicinity. However, further increase and
intensification of thunderstorms now south of the Dallas-Forth Worth
Metroplex seems probable, and could be accompanied by increasing
risk for severe hail and wind to the west of the Interstate 45
corridor through 19-21Z. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development to the south of the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex probably has been aided by an initial
area of strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with
an impulse pivoting around the larger-scale south central Plains
mid-level low. This appears to have been supported by relatively
weak CAPE, due to seasonably modest low-level moisture around the
Metroplex. And model output has indicated a greater convective
signal with a forecast increase in forcing for ascent with another
perturbation, roughly around the Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood areas
during the 19-21Z time frame.
However, southeast of the ongoing storms, heating of a more moist
boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) is already
well underway, with mixed-layer CAPE likely to continue to increase
in excess of 2000 J/kg through early to mid afternoon. Increasing
southeasterly inflow of this air, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly
500 mb flow, probably will support substantive further updraft
intensification, and upscale convective growth over the next few
hours. This may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail,
and favorable shear could contribute to the evolution of an
increasingly organized convective system with potential for
producing strong wind gusts, near/west of the Interstate-45
corridor.
..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 12:31 pm Worth reading from the overnight AFD from NWS HGX:
Beyond 240 hours? Why are you asking beyond 240 hours? If beyond
240 hours you go, only pain will you find. Yes, I see what the
GFS is doing way out there, and I bring it up for the SOLE.
PURPOSE. of being a buzzkill. We are now approaching the time of
year when the GFS loves to generate tropical cyclones in the
western Gulf out of the Central American Gyre in its extended
range. The GFS does this...a lot. Every once in a great while, it
happens in real life, too! So, if someone starts buzzing about
the hurricane in the Gulf in two weeks, let us all take a deep
breath and remember that far more likely than not, this is just
the GFS reminding us that it is almost June, and nothing more.
Regardless of what one model says about a couple weeks out, it is
almost hurricane season, and we should be working on being
prepared for anything that may come in the next several months as
a matter of course.
Well said.
Yep - have had an eye on these to explode. We really need some action (heavy rain) before the spigot is turned off tomorrow.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 12:32 pm Need to monitor those storms near Waco for possible activity in the SE Texas area this afternoon around rush hour...
05272020 mcd0739.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Areas affected...Parts of central into southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271708Z - 271915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of severe thunderstorm development has
seemed more probable later this afternoon near or north of the
Edwards Plateau vicinity. However, further increase and
intensification of thunderstorms now south of the Dallas-Forth Worth
Metroplex seems probable, and could be accompanied by increasing
risk for severe hail and wind to the west of the Interstate 45
corridor through 19-21Z. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development to the south of the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex probably has been aided by an initial
area of strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with
an impulse pivoting around the larger-scale south central Plains
mid-level low. This appears to have been supported by relatively
weak CAPE, due to seasonably modest low-level moisture around the
Metroplex. And model output has indicated a greater convective
signal with a forecast increase in forcing for ascent with another
perturbation, roughly around the Abilene/San Angelo/Brownwood areas
during the 19-21Z time frame.
However, southeast of the ongoing storms, heating of a more moist
boundary layer (with mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) is already
well underway, with mixed-layer CAPE likely to continue to increase
in excess of 2000 J/kg through early to mid afternoon. Increasing
southeasterly inflow of this air, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly
500 mb flow, probably will support substantive further updraft
intensification, and upscale convective growth over the next few
hours. This may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail,
and favorable shear could contribute to the evolution of an
increasingly organized convective system with potential for
producing strong wind gusts, near/west of the Interstate-45
corridor.
..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
Once the spigot is off, it's pot luck whether things turn on again in the Brazos Valley during meteorological summer. I see a model with a ridge building in June (instead of waiting for July, August). Not good.
Those storms up north are moving at a fast clip. We may get a decent storm out of it but probably not a whole lot of rain unless they either slow-down or expand into an MCS (which may happen).
That cell heading down Hwy 6 and approaching Marlin, then Hearne is looking pretty potent. Baseball size hail associated with the cell.
Need to be careful what I wish for on the weather pleasure/pain axis...but this is one to tracking during the course of the afternoon.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4D3F2078.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F4D3F36BCTX.FWDSVSFWD.12d87e6372d89fe9751097e1a3d24750 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:58 CDT on 05-27-2020
Effective: 12:58 CDT on 05-27-2020
Expires: 13:15 CDT on 05-27-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MCLENNAN...SOUTHWESTERN LIMESTONE AND FALLS COUNTIES...
At 1257 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near McGregor to Hewitt, moving southeast at 40 mph.
These are very dangerous storms.
HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
siding, and vehicles.
Locations impacted include...
Waco, Hewitt, Robinson, Bellmead, Woodway, Lacy-Lakeview, Marlin,
McGregor, Mart, Beverly Hills, Lorena, Bruceville-Eddy, Rosebud,
Riesel, Lott, Golinda, Hallsburg, Northcrest and Kosse.
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH
Instructions: These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail and damaging winds capable of producing significant damage...especially near Marlin! Move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth.
Target Area:
Falls
Limestone
McLennan
Need to be careful what I wish for on the weather pleasure/pain axis...but this is one to tracking during the course of the afternoon.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4D3F2078.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F4D3F36BCTX.FWDSVSFWD.12d87e6372d89fe9751097e1a3d24750 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 12:58 CDT on 05-27-2020
Effective: 12:58 CDT on 05-27-2020
Expires: 13:15 CDT on 05-27-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MCLENNAN...SOUTHWESTERN LIMESTONE AND FALLS COUNTIES...
At 1257 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near McGregor to Hewitt, moving southeast at 40 mph.
These are very dangerous storms.
HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
siding, and vehicles.
Locations impacted include...
Waco, Hewitt, Robinson, Bellmead, Woodway, Lacy-Lakeview, Marlin,
McGregor, Mart, Beverly Hills, Lorena, Bruceville-Eddy, Rosebud,
Riesel, Lott, Golinda, Hallsburg, Northcrest and Kosse.
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH
Instructions: These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail and damaging winds capable of producing significant damage...especially near Marlin! Move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth.
Target Area:
Falls
Limestone
McLennan
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srainhoutx
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted until 9:00 PM
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Some new development on the eastern flank closer to 45. I may be getting something out of this.
It appears that a MCS is developing.
Nasty cell just a few miles north of us.
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4D3F5D68.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F4D3F6984TX.HGXSVSHGX.aa6594a67f19803f1434be488bb2eb20 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:14 CDT on 05-27-2020
Effective: 14:14 CDT on 05-27-2020
Expires: 14:45 CDT on 05-27-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES...
At 214 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Franklin to 9 miles southeast of Cameron, moving
southeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Caldwell, Snook, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle
Field, Wellborn, Deanville and Chriesman.
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: These storms are producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4D3F5D68.SevereThunderstormWarning.125F4D3F6984TX.HGXSVSHGX.aa6594a67f19803f1434be488bb2eb20 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:14 CDT on 05-27-2020
Effective: 14:14 CDT on 05-27-2020
Expires: 14:45 CDT on 05-27-2020
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES...
At 214 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Franklin to 9 miles southeast of Cameron, moving
southeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Caldwell, Snook, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle
Field, Wellborn, Deanville and Chriesman.
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: These storms are producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...
Valid 271933Z - 272100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
continues.
SUMMARY...Potentially damaging wind gusts and severe hail will
accompany an increasingly organized cluster of thunderstorms
spreading into the mid/upper Texas coastal plain, including the
Greater Houston metropolitan area, between 4-5 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development is being maintained,
with thunderstorms clustering near a sub-synoptic surface low in the
vicinity of College Station. Aided by at least modest southeasterly
inflow of moist air (characterized by CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) into
updrafts, considerable further intensification and organization seem
probable as activity propagates southeastward into Greater Houston
and areas to the southwest through 21-22Z. Accompanied by a
strengthening surface cold pool and rear inflow, the risk for
potential damaging wind gusts is expected to increase further, in
addition to a continuing risk for severe hail..
..Kerr.. 05/27/2020