MAY 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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javakah wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 11:18 am A little surprised to look at the radar and see two tornado warnings at the moment between Brenham and Austin, and another just north of San Antonio.
Bastrop, Giddings...heading this way...or probably just north, unless some of the cells take a right turn, which they could as the system rotates and progresses.

Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

At 1127 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Lexington, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Tanglewood, Fedor, Lincoln and Leo.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Target Area:
Lee
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DoctorMu
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Hook echo near McMahan.

Tornado sighting near Upton:

https://twitter.com/6NewsCTX/status/126 ... 50536?s=20
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jasons2k
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Is that blob ever going to move, or is it just going to sit there all day?
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DoctorMu
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There's a line of showers that has formed near La Grange, which could move East into NW Harris Co. I-45 corridor might be SoL, unfortunately.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 2:44 pm There's a line of showers that has formed near La Grange, which could move East into NW Harris Co. I-45 corridor might be SoL, unfortunately.
That’s what I’m watching. It’s moving so slow. I’m watching to see if it starts to bow-out with a gust front to give it some oomph. Then with my luck the line will fall apart at I-45 and then reform to my east.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 2:44 pm There's a line of showers that has formed near La Grange, which could move East into NW Harris Co. I-45 corridor might be SoL, unfortunately.
That’s what I’m watching. It’s moving so slow. I’m watching to see if it starts to bow-out with a gust front to give it some oomph. Then, with my track record, the line will probably fall apart at I-45 and then reform to my east once it passes.
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jasons2k
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Looks like an advancing MCS in the making. It’s May.

Question is - how far does it make it? Watch & wait...
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 3:27 pm Looks like an advancing MCS in the making. It’s May.

Question is - how far does it make it? Watch & wait...
I don’t think it’s going to make it all the way into Houston. Plenty more rain chances in the forecast though!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 3:27 pm Looks like an advancing MCS in the making. It’s May.

Question is - how far does it make it? Watch & wait...

It's impressive. Feast or famine. We'll probably get entrained for hours.

Naturally, I watered yesterday. So, that clinches it. Flash flooding, here we come.
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DoctorMu
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when it rains...

A nice bow echo nearing Prairie View. NW Harris Co. should see action soon.

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125F4C5AD4B8.SpecialWeatherStatement.125F4C5AFCF4TX.HGXSPSHGX.4f98d8721d95dfe8675d78709d129bee from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 16:42 CDT on 05-12-2020
Effective: 12:00 CDT on 05-13-2020
Expires: 17:45 CDT on 05-12-2020
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRIMES...EASTERN WASHINGTON...
BRAZOS...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...WALLER...NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS...SOUTHWESTERN WALKER...COLORADO...CENTRAL WHARTON...AUSTIN...
EAST CENTRAL BURLESON AND NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Kurten to Prairie View to
near Sublime. Movement was east at 40 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall with this activity could produce rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. If any training sets up, localized
flooding will be possible. In addition to the rain, pea size hail
and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with the stronger
storms.

Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Conroe, western Huntsville, western
Rosenberg, Katy, El Campo, Tomball, Wharton, Jersey Village,
Navasota, Sealy, Hempstead, Willis, Prairie View, Brookshire,
Madisonville, Bellville, Columbus and Eagle Lake.
Instructions: These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in League City.

Target Area:
Austin
Brazos
Burleson
Colorado
Fort Bend
Grimes
Inland Harris
Madison
Montgomery
Walker
Waller
Washington
Wharton
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue May 12, 2020 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jasons2k
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The radar looks promising but the NWS is holding at 40% for me tonight - they won’t even wager 50/50 on this. I hope they’re wrong.
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jasons2k
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From Jeff Lindner:

Heavy rainfall occurring across the NW/W portions of SE TX this afternoon.

As mentioned this morning a complex mesoscale pattern has developed over SE/SC TX today with a convectively induced circulation over C TX that has resulted in the formation of banded heavy rainfall this afternoon. This feature has been poorly modeled by large scale models, but many of the short range models are now grasping this feature. This feature has helped in induce a stronger pressure gradient over the region with strong SSE winds helping to fuel and provide moisture inflow into the thunderstorms on the E/SE/S flanks of the circulation.

Meso models show a slow and gradual weakening of the activity this evening, but thus far radar trends continue to show fairly robust activity approaching Waller, Austin, and Colorado Counties. Rainfall rates in some of the stronger storms have been averaging up to 2 inches per hour. Will have to see how the activity moves and maintains itself over the next few hours as it moves into Waller, Fort Bend and potentially western Harris Counties.

Short wave aloft and surface/mid level circulation will be over SE TX tonight and Wednesday and while models are showing very little with these features, feel it is best to keep at least 40% rain chances for Wednesday and even Thursday with lots of moisture in place.

Concern continues to focus for this weekend as global model guidance continues to show some agreement on a very favorable pattern for heavy or even excessive rainfall over portions of SC/SE TX. Mid/upper level low pressure system will move into TX late Friday and very slowly creep ENE/E into early next week. Several rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible from SC to E TX during this period. Moisture profiles are certainly there for a sustained heavy rainfall event over the weekend, but as usual the placement and amounts of rainfall will be dictated on small scale factors that are impossible to predict at this range.

Take away at this point is the upcoming pattern is one of which has caused heavy rainfall and flooding concerns in the past over portions of TX and we will need to keep a close watch on the forecast.
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jasons2k
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Inflow from the gulf - check
Prime heating / time of day - check
70+ dew points - check
No rogue outflows to taint the inflow - check
Approaching short wave - check

Now why is this supposed to fall apart again?
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jasons2k
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So far, it’s made it to Brookshire - Tomball - Lake Conroe. So close...
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 5:33 pm Inflow from the gulf - check
Prime heating / time of day - check
70+ dew points - check
No rogue outflows to taint the inflow - check
Approaching short wave - check

Now why is this supposed to fall apart again?
I agree! Doesn’t make any sense, but it’s happening.
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jasons2k
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Most of it is holding together rather well -- except the portion in NW Harris County, downstream from me...it's fizzling there, splitting in half as it moves in my direction.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I’ve received right at 2 inches here in Colorado County with more coming! I’ll take it.
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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I got a couple of drops and that’s it. Lots of activity down to the SW though.
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Texaspirate11
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Not expecting a drop by galveston bay
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Cpv17
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All we’ve been getting here is some light rain. Been raining steadily here for a couple hours now. Might get a couple tenths. The heavier rains hit a wall for some reason. Just about 20 min to my south and west they got a huge rain.
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