April 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Re: April 2020

Post by don » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:16 pm

A little concerning that the sun is coming out again, that combined with strong inflow from the gulf would explain why models show CAPE values increasing so much over night.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:44 pm

Just by looking at the HRRR and whatever model Travis Herzog just showed, it looks like the squall line starts to fall apart south of I-10. I sure hope not.

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Re: April 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:19 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:44 pm
Just by looking at the HRRR and whatever model Travis Herzog just showed, it looks like the squall line starts to fall apart south of I-10. I sure hope not.
Of course it does...

Looking at the forecast this is the only shot for another whole week.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:11 pm

Well the leftover stabilized air has definitely mixed out here. Onshore flow with puffy clouds...

Cpv17
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Re: April 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:13 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:19 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:44 pm
Just by looking at the HRRR and whatever model Travis Herzog just showed, it looks like the squall line starts to fall apart south of I-10. I sure hope not.
Of course it does...

Looking at the forecast this is the only shot for another whole week.
I think your area will have a better shot at rain than where I’m at in west-central Wharton County. Looks like all of the models have me right on the western edge of the rain so it’s possible here I might not get anything.

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don
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Re: April 2020

Post by don » Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:35 am

The squall line is really starting to bow out , if the trend continues the line may be stronger down here than it was in Dallas/Ft Worth earlier.

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Areas affected...East-central Texas...Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154...155...

Valid 290656Z - 290900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154, 155
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for several more
hours as a line of storms moves southeastward across WW 154 and WW
155. New weather watch issuance may be needed to the southeast of
the current watches.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line is evident on radar from
north-central Texas arching east-northeastward across northwest
Arkansas into northwest Mississippi. The line of storms is located
on the northern edge of a moist airmass. Surface dewpoints are
highest in east-central Texas where the RAP is showing a moderately
unstable airmass. MLCAPE values are estimated to be in the 3000 to
4000 J/kg range across much of east-central Texas. For this reason,
the potential for wind damage and large hail will be greatest there
over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will also be possible
eastward across northern Louisiana where low-level flow is stronger.
The severe threat should move southeastward to the edges of WW 154
and WW 155 by 10Z. If the intensity of the line can be sustained as
it approaches the edge of the weather watches, then a new weather
watch could need to be issued across parts of southeast Texas and
central Louisiana late tonight.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/29/2020

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don
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Re: April 2020

Post by don » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:02 am

ww0156_radar.gif
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Louisiana
Far Southwest Mississippi
South-central/Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday morning from 240 AM until 900 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A well-organized squall line will continue a general
south-southeastward progression across the region through the early
morning hours, with some additional and more isolated storms also
across south-central/southeast Texas. Damaging winds will be the
most common hazard, but severe hail is possible particularly across
the Texas portion of the Watch (south-central Texas).

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Victoria TX to 80 miles east of Lafayette LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

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don
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Re: April 2020

Post by don » Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:01 am

Storms seem to be maintaining their strength.

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don
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Re: April 2020

Post by don » Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:02 am

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC041-051-185-291-339-373-407-471-477-290915-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0063.200429T0835Z-200429T0915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Polk County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 AM CDT.

* At 335 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Livingston to 9 miles east of New Waverly to 9
miles north of Anderson to 9 miles northwest of Bryan to 7 miles
south of Calvert, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Conroe, southeastern Huntsville, Cleveland,
Navasota, Willis, Livingston, The Woodlands, Washington, Shepherd,
Panorama Village, Splendora, Cut And Shoot, New Waverly,
Coldspring, Montgomery, Snook, Kurten and Goodrich.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

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don
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Re: April 2020

Post by don » Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:28 am

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC015-041-051-071-157-185-201-291-339-373-407-471-473-477-291015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0064.200429T0911Z-200429T1015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
411 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Southern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Polk County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...
South central Walker County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Liberty County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 515 AM CDT.

* At 410 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Honey Island to near Splendora to near Woodloch
to near Navasota to 9 miles north of Caldwell, moving south at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, College Station, southern Bryan, northern
Baytown, Conroe, Deer Park, Bellaire, Brenham, Humble, West
University Place, Katy, Galena Park, Tomball, Jacinto City,
Liberty, Cleveland, Jersey Village, Dayton, Navasota and Hempstead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

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