April 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Rip76
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What cap?
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 1248 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. 3 to 4 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southwestern Rosenberg, Wharton, East Bernard, Beasley, Kendleton,
Egypt and Hungerford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.
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don
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If that large slow moving supercell over Fort bend/Wharton counties moves into the urban areas flooding is going to be bad, radar is estimating rainfall rates of over 4 inches an hour....
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jasons2k
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I’ve been watching that cell. Meanwhile it keeps fizzling around me.
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don
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
121 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

TXC039-157-481-281845-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-200428T1845Z/
Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-
121 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WHARTON...SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND WEST CENTRAL
BRAZORIA COUNTIES...

At 119 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairchilds, or
11 miles south of Rosenberg, and is nearly stationary. This
continues to be a dangerous storm and is producing torrential
rainfall and frequent lightning.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Western Rosenberg, Needville, Pleak, Fairchilds, Beasley, Kendleton,
Brazos Bend State Park, Damon and Hungerford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2924 9578 2942 9618 2959 9590 2935 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 064DEG 2KT 2939 9577

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
davidiowx
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:34 pm I’ve been watching that cell. Meanwhile it keeps fizzling around me.
Can't really catch a break here in Richmond either. Flooding rains all around and just a little spit drizzle at the house. Thunder and dark clouds everywhere though.
Cromagnum
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Wasn't the main line of nastiness not due until late tonight? This looks like all the discrete storms are forming a line now.

and east Texas has been under the gun quite a lot lately.

Image
Last edited by Cromagnum on Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cromagnum
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And the anti rain halo is holding stout south of Pearland towards Angleton.
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Katdaddy
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Impressive satellite image of a slow moving strong cell producing very heavy rainfall over E Central Wharton, S Ft Bend, and NW Brazoria Counties.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

TXZ226-227-237-281915-
Inland Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
145 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WHARTON...SOUTHERN
FORT BEND AND NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong cluster of
thunderstorms over Needville, or 12 miles south of Rosenberg, moving
east at 10 mph.

Up to half inch size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph, torrential
rainfall and frequent lightning will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Sugar Land, Rosenberg, Richmond, Pecan Grove, Needville,
Iowa Colony, Pleak, Fairchilds, Beasley, Kendleton, Bonney,
Thompsons, Greatwood, Cumings, Brazos Bend State Park, New Territory,
southwestern Sienna Plantation, Juliff, Damon and Hungerford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in League City.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2020-04-28 at 1.49.50 PM.png
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:34 pm I’ve been watching that cell. Meanwhile it keeps fizzling around me.
Nothing up here. Had to start watering yesterday.

If it's going to be hot and humid, it might as well rain.

The radar looks pretty juicy just south of 59!
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:41 pm refcmp.us_sc1.pngThe HRRR model really starts to bow the squall line as it enters southeast Texas fwiw.
From your computer fingertips to...

There have been inches of rain 5 mi north and 5 miles south of my backyard in the last week. I'm in a dry slot out of Jason's nightmares.

We did have frequent enough rain until about 10 days ago.
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Katdaddy
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC039-157-481-281930-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0054.200428T1900Z-200428T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
South central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
West central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 PM CDT.

* At 200 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Damon, or 14
miles northwest of West Columbia, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Damon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Cromagnum
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Wow. All that and we didn't get a drop at my house. It completely vanished and went south towards lake jackson. I expect the atmosphere will now be "worked over" and we won't get anything tonight either.
unome
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:53 pm Wow. All that and we didn't get a drop at my house. It completely vanished and went south towards lake jackson. I expect the atmosphere will now be "worked over" and we won't get anything tonight either.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
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djmike
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FINALLY!!!! Decent rain thunder and lightning here in Beaumont! (Over my house!) 1.5” so far and counting. Darker than night here. I had to turn on lights to see! Anyway, this is a welcome surprise today. For 2 months I had only gotten 0.57”. I hear my lawn rejoicing. Round two late tonight into morning looks like its gonna be a doozy for many. Not liking the bowing on models for morning. Stay safe everyone...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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unome wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:00 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:53 pm Wow. All that and we didn't get a drop at my house. It completely vanished and went south towards lake jackson. I expect the atmosphere will now be "worked over" and we won't get anything tonight either.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

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Here's hoping that means a lot of rain and not a lot of wind. My yard is basically ceramic pottery at this point.
unome
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https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/12 ... 9218004993

Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
Important to note for folks in the Houston area: Just because we saw storms today, it does not mean that tonight's storms won't happen. They are still coming.
3:16 PM · Apr 28, 2020·TweetDeck
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jasons2k
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Wow storm by Lake Jackson went poof!
unome
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Well, there was a bit more shower and thunderstorm activity this
afternoon than expected. A weak shortwave and a little to no capping
has allowed storms to pop up and down across the area, and this is
expected to continue through around sunset. There will be a bit of a
lull in activity from sunset through around midnight, but then the
next round of thunderstorms is expected to begin to approach the
area. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will quickly move
southward across the area tonight first moving through the northern
zones around 1 to 3am, then racing southward to the Houston Metro
area between 3 and 6am, and finally off the coast by 5 to 7am. This
is slightly later than previously thought as the TT-WRF and HRRR has
slowed the arrival a bit, but once the line gets going it should
speed through the area. The main threat continues to be damaging
wind gusts with the passage, but hail and an isolated tornado or two
is still possible. While severe storms will be possible across the
area, the higher chances will be north of I-10 with increasing
threat the further north you go.

After the passage of the line of storms in the early morning, the
rest of the day will feature clearing skies with a northerly wind.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid 80s across the area,
then dipping down mid to upper 50s tomorrow night.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
A deep upper trough over the southern Great Lakes will allow upper
level ridging to expand over Texas. 500 mb heights will increase
and temperatures will slowly warm on Thursday into Friday. 850
temps warm up on Saturday into Sunday so surface temperatures
should also climb a bit and high temperatures will warm from the
lower 80's on the Thursday to the mid/upper 80's on Friday to the
lower/mid 90's Saturday through Tuesday. Heat index values will
warm to near 100 degrees Sunday/Monday. The upper ridge will
flatten as an upper trough tracks across the northern plains. The
upper trough will phase with a weak short wave over the Rockies to
carve out a deeper long wave trough over the eastern US. This will
allow a sfc cold front to cross the area on Tuesday night bringing
a chance of showers and also some cooler temperatures for the
middle of next week. 43

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate onshore flow with 4 to 6 foot seas are expected through
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front resulting in caution
flags continuing through the night. This line of storms will move
through the area during the early to mid morning hours on Wednesday
bringing strong gusty winds. This line of storms will usher in
northerly winds Wednesday afternoon, becoming moderate overnight
Wednesday possibly resulting in additional caution flags. Light
onshore flow will emerge through Friday, but this flow will increase
to near caution criteria again over the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 80 53 83 57 / 80 40 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 82 58 83 60 / 80 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 81 66 79 71 / 50 80 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Cpv17
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Two severe thunderstorm warnings and all sorts of weather activity going on in my county today and not a drop at my house :roll:
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