April 2020
This is it? We are getting nothing but light drizzle since 2pm. Not even enough to pond on roadway and radar shows nothing decent. Someone please break this curse. My poor rain gauge is dirty dusty and has pollen in it still...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
You probably don't want the curse to be broken out there in Beaumont... good things haven't come from that.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
The Beaumont/Golden Triangle area is annually the wettest area in Texas. I’m sure rain will return there in great abundance sooner than later. I’m also happy to report 1.6” here in Wharton County on top of the 4” we had here a couple weekends ago. All is well here for the time being.
I’m thinking Friday could be a big ticket event for a lot of our area. We shall see, but I’m already over this current system and looking for the next one.
I am
So grateful to be able to report 1.6” in League City yesterday at my house!
Thank God.
So grateful to be able to report 1.6” in League City yesterday at my house!
Thank God.
We have had back to back active seasons since 2016. It is rather unheard of. It likely happened before satellite era.Katdaddy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:32 pm I know this is Spring and the 2020 Hurricane Season is 2 month’s away but Dr. Philip Klotzbach with the Colorado State University released the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook this morning. An above average season is expected due to less wind shear and warmer than normal Atlantic waters. Now back to Spring weather with an extended period of messy weather on the way through next Wednesday.
We’re gonna have some pretty chilly weather headed our way over the next couple weeks once we get past the middle part of this week.
Well Mondays rain went from 60% to 20%... I give up.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
The Euro and UKMET both show a significant severe weather threat for Saturday.
Dont know if I'm reading this wrong but models look to be consistent on some pretty chilly weather coming down especially for April mid to late next week.
Tomorrow could get pretty nasty around here and for sure late Saturday into Sunday morning. Heck, even later today far western areas of the viewing area could see some action.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
south Texas on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Very large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern will have two prominent features on Thursday, a large
upper low over southern CA and the southern Great Basin and a
deepening/mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Northeast States. The
southern CA upper low will be displaced southwest of the stronger
flow aloft, with little progression of this system anticipated
throughout the day. Maturing of the cyclone over the Northeast will
be supported by a pair of shortwave troughs, one moving through the
region during the first half of the period and the other moving
through early Friday morning. Very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 110+
kt at 500mb) will accompany these shortwaves, spreading
eastward/northeastward over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England by Thursday afternoon.
Despite these more prominent features, the primary severe weather
threat will likely be tied to a more subtle shortwave trough
ejecting out of northern Mexico and across TX. Ample low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of this shortwave, leading to
strong/severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
...Central/South TX...
A cold front will likely extend from northern LA southwestward into
the Edwards Plateau early Thursday morning. This front is expected
to slowly push southward throughout the day as temperatures and
low-level moisture gradually increase ahead of it. By the early
afternoon, temperatures will like be in the upper 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s/low 70s south of the front. Ascent along the front
will be augmented by the subtle shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis, leading to thunderstorm initiation by the early afternoon.
The warm and moist low-levels coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (generally steepest between 800 to 600 mb) will support strong
buoyancy and the potential for very strong updrafts. Winds up
through about 700 mb will be modest but strong westerly flow will
exist about 700 mb, supporting ample deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Large to very large hail appears to be the main severe
threat, although the potential exists for upscale growth into an
organized convective line. As such, threat for strong wind gusts
exists from both water-loaded downdrafts within more cellular
activity and more organized updrafts/downdrafts within a convective
line. The tornado threat is non-zero, but weak low-level flow
suggest very low probability.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
south Texas on Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Very large hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern will have two prominent features on Thursday, a large
upper low over southern CA and the southern Great Basin and a
deepening/mature mid-latitude cyclone over the Northeast States. The
southern CA upper low will be displaced southwest of the stronger
flow aloft, with little progression of this system anticipated
throughout the day. Maturing of the cyclone over the Northeast will
be supported by a pair of shortwave troughs, one moving through the
region during the first half of the period and the other moving
through early Friday morning. Very strong mid-level flow (i.e. 110+
kt at 500mb) will accompany these shortwaves, spreading
eastward/northeastward over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England by Thursday afternoon.
Despite these more prominent features, the primary severe weather
threat will likely be tied to a more subtle shortwave trough
ejecting out of northern Mexico and across TX. Ample low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of this shortwave, leading to
strong/severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon.
...Central/South TX...
A cold front will likely extend from northern LA southwestward into
the Edwards Plateau early Thursday morning. This front is expected
to slowly push southward throughout the day as temperatures and
low-level moisture gradually increase ahead of it. By the early
afternoon, temperatures will like be in the upper 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s/low 70s south of the front. Ascent along the front
will be augmented by the subtle shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis, leading to thunderstorm initiation by the early afternoon.
The warm and moist low-levels coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (generally steepest between 800 to 600 mb) will support strong
buoyancy and the potential for very strong updrafts. Winds up
through about 700 mb will be modest but strong westerly flow will
exist about 700 mb, supporting ample deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Large to very large hail appears to be the main severe
threat, although the potential exists for upscale growth into an
organized convective line. As such, threat for strong wind gusts
exists from both water-loaded downdrafts within more cellular
activity and more organized updrafts/downdrafts within a convective
line. The tornado threat is non-zero, but weak low-level flow
suggest very low probability.
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It’s 88 here. Had a high of 90. Cap is holding firm.
Mid 90s in Dallas today.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
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- Location: Weimar, TX
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My fishing tank is up several feet in Colorado County. I’ll take another 3-4 inches
Team #NeverSummer
Just by looking at the models tonight, it looks the rain tomorrow will pretty much stop at the Colorado/Wharton County line and points east of there won’t get much of anything and points north of there could get 2-4”. So according to that I won’t get much here tomorrow.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TX...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC TO NEAR
NEW YORK CITY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected from the Hill Country into south and southeast Texas
this afternoon into early tonight. Damaging wind gusts may also
occur around midday along the Interstate 95 corridor from near
Washington D.C. to near New York City.
...Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor through early afternoon...
In the wake of weakening morning convection, there will be a window
of opportunity for surface-based destabilization from northeast VA
across MD/DE into NJ. Forcing for ascent along a cold front south
of a deepening cyclone in NY, and immediately in advance of a strong
midlevel shortwave trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak over
IN/OH, will support a band of thunderstorms along the front in the
15-19z time frame. Steepening low-level lapse rates, MLCAPE near
500 J/kg, strong deep-layer vertical shear, and 50 kt flow below 700
mb will all support a threat for damaging winds, marginally severe
hail, and perhaps a tornado with the late morning to early afternoon
convection.
...Hill Country to south/southeast TX this afternoon into early
tonight...
A surface cold front will slow and stall by afternoon from central
into northeast TX. This front will coincide with the southern
stream aloft, which will include an ejecting speed max from northern
Mexico into south central TX today. Surface heating and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s along the boundary will
begin to erode convective inhibition by mid afternoon. Storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the boundary near
I-35, by which time MLCAPE will have increased into the 2500-4000
J/kg range.
Though low-level flow/shear will remain weak, deep-layer shear will
be favorable for supercells, and storm interactions will likely lead
to some upscale growth by this evening. The more discrete
supercells will pose a threat for isolated very large hail, while
damaging winds can be expected with the storm mergers and upscale
growth into clusters. Convective clusters will likely reach
southeast TX and the middle-upper TX coastal plain by this evening.
The threat for isolated severe storms could linger into the
overnight hours across deep South TX, as storms cross the Rio Grande
from northeast Mexico.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TX...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC TO NEAR
NEW YORK CITY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected from the Hill Country into south and southeast Texas
this afternoon into early tonight. Damaging wind gusts may also
occur around midday along the Interstate 95 corridor from near
Washington D.C. to near New York City.
...Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor through early afternoon...
In the wake of weakening morning convection, there will be a window
of opportunity for surface-based destabilization from northeast VA
across MD/DE into NJ. Forcing for ascent along a cold front south
of a deepening cyclone in NY, and immediately in advance of a strong
midlevel shortwave trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak over
IN/OH, will support a band of thunderstorms along the front in the
15-19z time frame. Steepening low-level lapse rates, MLCAPE near
500 J/kg, strong deep-layer vertical shear, and 50 kt flow below 700
mb will all support a threat for damaging winds, marginally severe
hail, and perhaps a tornado with the late morning to early afternoon
convection.
...Hill Country to south/southeast TX this afternoon into early
tonight...
A surface cold front will slow and stall by afternoon from central
into northeast TX. This front will coincide with the southern
stream aloft, which will include an ejecting speed max from northern
Mexico into south central TX today. Surface heating and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s along the boundary will
begin to erode convective inhibition by mid afternoon. Storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the boundary near
I-35, by which time MLCAPE will have increased into the 2500-4000
J/kg range.
Though low-level flow/shear will remain weak, deep-layer shear will
be favorable for supercells, and storm interactions will likely lead
to some upscale growth by this evening. The more discrete
supercells will pose a threat for isolated very large hail, while
damaging winds can be expected with the storm mergers and upscale
growth into clusters. Convective clusters will likely reach
southeast TX and the middle-upper TX coastal plain by this evening.
The threat for isolated severe storms could linger into the
overnight hours across deep South TX, as storms cross the Rio Grande
from northeast Mexico.
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