jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:33 pm
I was just gonna say, the cap sure is holding for central and southern areas. My rain chances the rest of the day went from 70% down to 40%...
I was hoping for another shower today but as long we don’t go for weeks and weeks without rain I’m hoping all will be OK. I’ve had 2.26” for April. Not a ton of rain but considering there have been so many recent Aprils that were like the Indian pre-monsoonal drought, I’ll take it.
Have to wonder what's kept the cap in place so much this year. Don't need the flooding rains, but it's a bit of a head scratcher for me.
Been this way for years. Most years the failure to bust the cap gets blamed on cool shelf waters leading to an overcast sky and boundary layer. But that’s not the culprit this year...
I think with global warming, we are seeing a more persistent springtime mean storm track to the north of here, earlier in the season, and we just miss out. We just don’t get the jet dynamics at play like we used to.
When’s the last time we had an actual triple point come through SE Texas? I bet it’s been so long ago nobody could answer that without looking it up. Probably couldn’t even guess the year. That’s how bad it’s gotten.
Severe season has tracked earlier through the decades and more potent in LA, MS, AL than in 1990.
There the SW mid level winds don't bring the cap of dry air from Mexico, but more Gulf moisture (to got with the SE surface winds.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
East central Trinity County in southeastern Texas...
Central Polk County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 630 PM CDT.
* At 545 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located near Sebastopol, or 18 miles northwest of Livingston,
moving east at 40 mph.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.
* The tornado will be near...
Seven Oaks around 610 PM CDT.
Corrigan around 615 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Moscow
and Leggett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:02 pm
The hook on that storm near Onalaska is insane. Yikes! That’s like something you’d see in Oklahoma or something.
Huge hook. That cell went through Bryan, Madisonville, and took a right turn.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL TRINITY AND CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES...
At 600 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Seven Oaks, or 9 miles north of Livingston, moving east
at 45 mph.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.
This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Trinity and central Polk Counties, including the
following locations... Moscow and Leggett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
his is life threatening!!!
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR the city of JASPER TEXAS...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...
At 716 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
over Jasper, moving east at 40 mph.
TORNADO EMERGENCY for the city of JASPER TEXAS. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...Deadly tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.
The tornado will be near...
Harrisburg around 725 PM CDT.
Jamestown around 730 PM CDT.
Farrsville around 735 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wiergate.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:33 pm
I was just gonna say, the cap sure is holding for central and southern areas. My rain chances the rest of the day went from 70% down to 40%...
I was hoping for another shower today but as long we don’t go for weeks and weeks without rain I’m hoping all will be OK. I’ve had 2.26” for April. Not a ton of rain but considering there have been so many recent Aprils that were like the Indian pre-monsoonal drought, I’ll take it.
Have to wonder what's kept the cap in place so much this year. Don't need the flooding rains, but it's a bit of a head scratcher for me.
Been this way for years. Most years the failure to bust the cap gets blamed on cool shelf waters leading to an overcast sky and boundary layer. But that’s not the culprit this year...
I think with global warming, we are seeing a more persistent springtime mean storm track to the north of here, earlier in the season, and we just miss out. We just don’t get the jet dynamics at play like we used to.
When’s the last time we had an actual triple point come through SE Texas? I bet it’s been so long ago nobody could answer that without looking it up. Probably couldn’t even guess the year. That’s how bad it’s gotten.
Yeah don’t get me wrong, I want to no part of what seems to have been a wedge tornado with that cell, or massive hail. But getting absolute dust just isn’t right. I’m new to the Gulf Coast dynamics, but it just seems odd that the forecasts continually hype rain chances only to see them vanish to nothing. I can say that I definitely don’t see the set ups of triple points down here.
DoctorMu mentioned the SW flow from Mexico, but I’m just dumbfounded on how much of a lockdown the cap has been here considering it seems we have everything here to set up for at least a solid storm chance.
Tornado that hit Jasper TX still on ground heading toward Shankleville...a less populated area. Also multiple casualties , which can mean injuries, in Onalaska as well. #txwx
And poof. Just like that, all rain vanishes and we are once again left with nothing. 80% forecasted yesterday for Beaumont, 60% this morning and now 40%. By the looks of radar, should now be about 0% chance. Ive had a total of 0.54” for April. Not asking for a storm. Just some hefty beneficial all day soaking rains. Blows my mind for a solid two months now, forecasts have forecasted hefty rain chances for our immediate area and the day of, poof. Absolutely nothing. This cap needs to break down and hopefully soon or my yard and plants will be going into survival mode like they did in 2011. Looking at the forecast, doesnt look like ANY possible rain chances till mid next week. Figures. Happy Earth Day! And to all the Administrative folks, Happy Administrative Day! ...now, where my water hose?
Have to wonder what's kept the cap in place so much this year. Don't need the flooding rains, but it's a bit of a head scratcher for me.
Been this way for years. Most years the failure to bust the cap gets blamed on cool shelf waters leading to an overcast sky and boundary layer. But that’s not the culprit this year...
I think with global warming, we are seeing a more persistent springtime mean storm track to the north of here, earlier in the season, and we just miss out. We just don’t get the jet dynamics at play like we used to.
When’s the last time we had an actual triple point come through SE Texas? I bet it’s been so long ago nobody could answer that without looking it up. Probably couldn’t even guess the year. That’s how bad it’s gotten.
Yeah don’t get me wrong, I want to no part of what seems to have been a wedge tornado with that cell, or massive hail. But getting absolute dust just isn’t right. I’m new to the Gulf Coast dynamics, but it just seems odd that the forecasts continually hype rain chances only to see them vanish to nothing. I can say that I definitely don’t see the set ups of triple points down here.
DoctorMu mentioned the SW flow from Mexico, but I’m just dumbfounded on how much of a lockdown the cap has been here considering it seems we have everything here to set up for at least a solid storm chance.
By the time the cell had gotten to Livingston, it had intensified and was sucking in more Gulf moisture.
East of Alexandria and north of Marksville. The hook echo signature is still that as the supercell barrels along toward just south of Natchez. Fortunately, in a sparsely populated area, but this is not something you want to meet up with at night.
