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Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:01 am
by ticka1
Nothing like being awaken by a severe thunderstorm at 4:30 a.m. in the morning with lots of thunder and lightining and rain! Its happening here over near Baytown/Mont Belveiu.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 6:53 am
by srainhoutx
HGX seems to be leaving the door open to a Flood Watch later down the line. Something to keep in mind as today and tomorrow unfold...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO AN DE-
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO
THE SLOW-MOVING NORTHERN TREK OF CELLS WITHIN A INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT/WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING WIND FIELD AND NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTATION LINE TRAINING HAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARILY THREAT. FFG IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...NEAR 3 INCH/HOUR
RATES TO PRODUCE FLOODING BUT AS DAY WEARS ON THESE NUMBERS WILL
LOWER. TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW`S FLOODING THREAT WILL BECOME MORE
OF AN ISSUE AS MORE BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FALL OVER
SATURATED GROUNDS. AS USUALLY IS THE CASE WITHIN THESE TROPICAL
AIR MASSES...MORNING FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WEAK WATERSPOUTS/NEAR-COASTAL
TORNADOES ARE A SECONDARY THREAT. OFFSHORE CONVECTION ENCOUNTERING
SPEED CONVERGENCE UPON THEIR INLAND ENTRY WILL INDUCE ENOUGH LL
WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED FUNNELS.

OVERCAST AND RAIN WILL HAVE TUE-WED MX TEMPS COMING IN AN AVERAGE
5 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL...MINIMUMS TO COME IN NEAR NORMAL. SOME
LOCALES EXPERIENCING STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGES MAY DIP DOWN
TO AROUND 70 F.

AS EASTERN RIDGING ADVANCES IN OVER TEXAS ON THU-FRI...AND WEST
COAST TROUGH ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER IT...UPPER LOW WILL DISSOLVE
OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER EASTERN AIR MASS ADVECTS IN UNDER 5H RIDGING GOING INTO
FRIDAY...AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK ON THE REGION. THUS...DRIER
AND MORE HOT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SWING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL...OR THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMING ALONG THE LOCAL BREEZE(S). WE GO FROM SOGGY TO SWELTERING AS
HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT...OR EXCEED...THE 105 F MARK.
THE ONLY SAVING GRACE OF ISSUING THE FIRST HEAT ADVISORIES OF THE
YEAR WILL BE THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR MASS...OR A MORE WEST (THAN SOUTH) WIND DIRECTION. AUGUST BEGINS
ON SUNDAY WITH NO HEAT ADVISORIES TO DATE...LETS HOPE WE DON`T SPEAK
IT INTO EXISTENCE! 31

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:26 am
by weatherguy425
Storms seem to be having trouble getting their act together, maybe due to limited heating so far.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 12:09 pm
by Andrew
weatherguy425 wrote:Storms seem to be having trouble getting their act together, maybe due to limited heating so far.

I would have to disagree. Yesterday storms didn't really get kicking until 2. They look pretty good so far

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:26 pm
by weatherguy425
weatherguy425 wrote:
Storms seem to be having trouble getting their act together, maybe due to limited heating so far.


I would have to disagree. Yesterday storms didn't really get kicking until 2. They look pretty good so far
idk, it just seems that storms are less organized and are more "pulse" like, they"ll pop up and die out within 45 mins or so.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 3:51 pm
by weatherguy425
Some sort of boundary moving northward fro mthe coast, helping storms fire in southern harris county...

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:04 pm
by wxdata
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

TXZ195-196-272300-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-
502 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTY AND
NORTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY...

AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRYAN...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRYAN...MOORING...AND
COOKS POINT.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:46 pm
by wxdata
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
543 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

TXC041-272345-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0070.100727T2243Z-100727T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZOS TX-
543 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING IN A THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WIXON VALLEY.

* RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 974
AND THE OSR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 6:56 am
by srainhoutx
One more day of showers/storms and 'cooler temps' before the heat kicks in to end the month of July. HGX thinking the 'best chances' for heavy rainfall will be W of I-45 today and stated that a couple of inches rainfall in a couple of hours is not out of the question. Should IAH be under one of those storms, we may set a new record for the wettest July since 1900. We shall see. HPC thoughts this morning...

...TX...
MDLS ARE CONTG TO SHOW A SURGE OF VRY DEEP TROPICAL MSTR..PWS AOA
2.25 INCHES..UP THRU SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS PD..UNDER MDTLY STG
SELY LOW LVL FLO. THIS INCREASING MSTR AND SEA/LAND BREEZE
CNVGNC..SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN POTNL ACRS MUCH OF SE TX THIS MRNG
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NWWD UNDER PREVAILING SELY FLOW. WENT
SLIGHTLY HIER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GIVEN THE VERY HI MSTR
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME RATHER HI RAINFALL RATES.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:36 am
by wxdata
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2010

TXZ237-238-281615-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
1033 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DANBURY OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALVIN...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROSHARON...CHOCOLATE
BAYOU...PEARLAND...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...IOWA COLONY...HILLCREST...
FRIENDSWOOD...BONNEY AND ALVIN.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 1:03 pm
by texoz
Any of the weather websites show active lightening strikes? I've tried wundground and NOAA's, but can't locate any. thanks

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:12 am
by wxdata
texoz wrote:Any of the weather websites show active lightening strikes? I've tried wundground and NOAA's, but can't locate any. thanks
There are a few pay sites (Weathertap, AllisonHouse, Accuweather) that offer limited 'live' lightning data (usually a few minutes old.) Those wanting real-time live data, expect to fork out $$$$, as there is only one company collecting nation-wide data.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:56 am
by texoz
wxdata wrote:
texoz wrote:Any of the weather websites show active lightening strikes? I've tried wundground and NOAA's, but can't locate any. thanks
There are a few pay sites (Weathertap, AllisonHouse, Accuweather) that offer limited 'live' lightning data (usually a few minutes old.) Those wanting real-time live data, expect to fork out $$$$, as there is only one company collecting nation-wide data.
Yeah, that's what I thought. Thanks for the info.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 5:19 pm
by wxdata
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
509 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

TXZ177-198-199-213-292300-
GRIMES-HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-
509 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF PINEHURST...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RICHARDS...LAKE CONROE
DAM...DOBBIN...DACUS...STAGECOACH...PINEHURST AND MONTGOMERY.

Re: July Weather Discussion

Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 5:27 pm
by wxdata
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

TXC201-339-300115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0071.100729T2224Z-100730T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
524 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING BETWEEN TOMBALL...STAGECOACH...AND
PINEHURST.

* RAINFALL UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.