July Weather Discussion

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts regarding the rainfall...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 012015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS EVOLVING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION. PARTS OF
THE REGION RECEIVED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY. AT 19Z...A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG A LCH TO BPT TO HOU TO
PSX LINE. THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.6 INCHES...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NO
PROBLEM. DETERMINING WHERE MESO BOUNDARIES SET UP IS GOING TO BE
THE HEADACHE. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. 4 KM WRF PROVIDES A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIP ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BUT DOES NOT SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS A
FOCUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HELPED STEER ALEX INTO MEXICO
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW THE MOISTURE AXIS WHICH HAS
BEEN ORIENTED EAST-WEST TO PIVOT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-45/HWY 290 CORRIDOR.
FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR AMOUNTS...BEST GUESS IS AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED 6 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AGREE WITH HPC`S QPFERD DISCUSSION. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE
SREF MEAN MAX PRECIP FIELD FOR GUIDANCE ON THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
THIS FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING IF HEAVY RAIN BEGINS OVER THAT PART OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THUS FAR...THE NW ZONES HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN SO WILL HOLD THEM OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
HEATING. DON`T THINK SAT-MON WILL BE A WASH-OUT BUT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES COULD BE INTERRUPTED BY A SHOWER. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS AND A CONTINUED TAP OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 43

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 414 PM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
FLASH FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN BRAZORIA COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSHARON...DAMON...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...WEST
COLUMBIA...SWEENY...SURFSIDE BEACH...RICHWOOD...QUINTANA...
PEARLAND...OYSTER CREEK...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...LAKE JACKSON...JONES
CREEK...IOWA COLONY...HILLCREST...FREEPORT...DANBURY...CLUTE...
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...BRAZORIA...BONNEY...BAILEY`S PRAIRIE...ANGLETON
AND ALVIN.

PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 35 IN AND AROUND WEST COLUMBIA ARE IMPASSABLE
DUE TO HIGH WATER. NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED FLOODED IN
SWEENY.

[Rip76]

Looks like storms in the Gulf are beginning to die out.
Maybe I just can see that far out

[wxdata]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.53 INCHES WAS SET AT HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.41 INCHES SET IN 1987.


$$

[Ptarmigan]

Wet day today. I haven't seen a day this wet in a while. I know storms are dying in GOM. I think they will redevelop in the night, since it is tropical moisture.

[svrwx0503]

Rain slowly tapering off across the region this evening. 00z RAOB from CRP shows a PW value of 3.0''! I do not remember ever seeing precip water values that high before. LCH is currently sitting at a dry 2.44'' . The latest RUC mesoanalysis shows PW's in the 2.6-2.8'' range across southeast Texas so it is not going to take much at all for showers and begin to re-develop across the area. Models continue to peg away at a disturbance moving across the region late tonight and tomorrow morning which should be more than enough to allow things to get going again. As the NWS mentioned in their afternoon discussion there still looks to be a weak surface boundary from LCH, to BPT, to HOU which could serve as the focus for additional rain later tonight. Also, some speed convergence is seen along and just offshore of the coast which could also enhance development. Therefore, we remain in a watch and see mode as trying to forecast the mesoscale details will be close to impossible.

[Ptarmigan]

Rain slowly tapering off across the region this evening. 00z RAOB from CRP shows a PW value of 3.0''! I do not remember ever seeing precip water values that high before. LCH is currently sitting at a dry 2.44'' . The latest RUC mesoanalysis shows PW's in the 2.6-2.8'' range across southeast Texas so it is not going to take much at all for showers and begin to re-develop across the area. Models continue to peg away at a disturbance moving across the region late tonight and tomorrow morning which should be more than enough to allow things to get going again. As the NWS mentioned in their afternoon discussion there still looks to be a weak surface boundary from LCH, to BPT, to HOU which could serve as the focus for additional rain later tonight. Also, some speed convergence is seen along and just offshore of the coast which could also enhance development. Therefore, we remain in a watch and see mode as trying to forecast the mesoscale details will be close to impossible.

Holey Moley. No kidding, it is 3 inches!






Edit to add- look where the tropopause is!

A PW of 3" is really high. I have never seen it either. I wonder what is the highest PW value ever? Perhaps before the June 8-9, 2001 Allison flood, 1979 Claudette, or October 1994 Flood. 2" is considered high.

I don't see much on radar right now. I would not be surprised if more rain developed later tonight.

[djjordan]

Somebody is going to get dumped on overnight ..... Feel that the ongoing flood threat is going to get worse.

[tireman4]

Rain slowly tapering off across the region this evening. 00z RAOB from CRP shows a PW value of 3.0''! I do not remember ever seeing precip water values that high before. LCH is currently sitting at a dry 2.44'

This is just killing my running. I mean just taking my miles to the woodshed. Please Mr Rainmaker, dry this air out. Goodness.

[svrwx0503]

Here we go again...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 1132 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST COLUMBIA TO
FREEPORT TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF SAN LUIS PASS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO TRAIN OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THE
PRESENT TIME...GENERALLY LESS THAN 3/4 INCH PER HOUR. HOWEVER...IT HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING AND THE WARNED AREA HAS RECEIVED 4 TO 10 INCHES
OF RAINFALL EARLIER THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF AND
CAUSE FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DAMON...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...WEST COLUMBIA...SWEENY...RICHWOOD...
QUINTANA...OYSTER CREEK...LAKE JACKSON...JONES CREEK...HOLIDAY
LAKES...FREEPORT...CLUTE...BRAZORIA...BAILEY`S PRAIRIE AND
ANGLETON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DEPTH AND SPEED OF FLASH FLOOD WATERS. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
TO RISE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE WARNED AREA.

[wxdata]

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 0545ZDS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...COASTAL CELL ACTIVITY
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR SATL IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD
TOP TEMPS OF -60 TO -66C MOSTLY OVER BRAZORIA COUNTY BUT ALSO OVER
EXTREME NE MATAGORDA COUNTY DURING THE PAST HR. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SRN US FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ALEX. PW VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO STILL BE 2.6-2.7 ALONG THE
TX COAST AND VWP/00Z STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES SERLY TO ESERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF DIRECTING THIS MOIST FLOW INLAND. AS A RESULT..MOISTURE
LADEN CNVTN CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG THE COAST FROM CRP TO GALVESTON
BAY..BUT A SMALL POCKET OF SFC CNVG HAS KEPT STRONGEST CELLS BETWEEN
PSX AND GLS. RECENT 0315Z AMSU PASS INDICATED AREAL AVG RAIN RATES OVER
BRAZORIA/MATARGORDA COUNTY BORDER OF NRLY 0.5"/HR WITH LOCALIZED RATES
LIKELY OVER 1"/HR. WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING SINCE 03Z..MAX RAINRATES ARE
PROBABLY EVEN HIGHER NOW..AND GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WOULD
NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 06-09Z..HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM
FORECAST...MOD-LOCALLY HVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL TX NEXT SVRL
HRS WITH HVST LIKELY BETWEEN PSX AND GLS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-2" DURING OUTLOOK TIME ARE POSSIBLE.

[Diva]

This is just killing my running. I mean just taking my miles to the woodshed. Please Mr Rainmaker, dry this air out. Goodness.

You and me both tireman4! I haven't been able to run in days and it's killing me!!! This evening doesn't look promising either.

[svrwx0503]

Interesting morning with scattered showers developing and moving northwest across the area. PW"s remain extremely high for this time of year, so these showers are going to be proficient rain makers. Going to have to keep an eye on the training situation through the morning as it looks like the boundary that plagued Brazoria and Matagorda counties yesterday has moved a bit inland, closer to the metro area.

Also, it is important to note that unlike yesterday the shower activity is not weakening as it moves inland.

[srainhoutx]

1 Day (24 hour) QPF is pegging SE TX...

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see a Flood Warning issued. It has been pouring since 7:00 AM in NW Harris County. Already over 2 inches have fallen at my location.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/02/10 1330Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z JBN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTION MOVING NW ACROSS ERN TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TX THIS MORNING WITH PWATS AVERAGING IN
EXCESS OF 2" IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER ERN TX WHERE PWATS ARE AVERAGING
2.5-2.6". THIS SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
ACROSS TX AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUBBLING UP AND DOWN ACROSS THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AND COASTAL TX THE PAST FEW HRS IN AN AREA OF GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE
AND IS MOVING NW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHOWN A
COOLING/EXPANDING TREND FROM TIME TO TIME SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAVE
BEEN BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING. MOST RECENT IMAGES SHOW THAT NEW
CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BUBBLED UP NEAR THE TX COAST AND THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO WITH CLOUD TOPS SHOWING A STRONG COOLING/EXPANDING TREND. THE
CONVECTION IS MOVING STEADILY TO THE NW, BUT SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
AS THE CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS THE
NEXT FEW HRS. BASED ON SFC OBS FROM ACROSS ERN TX THE PAST FEW HRS, RAIN
RATES OF 1-2"/HR MAY BE COMMON WITH THE CONVECTION WITH RATES PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 2"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. WITH SOME TRAINING
POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO BANDS, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3". ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LESS,
ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES INLAND.
.
A SATELLITE GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE THREAT FOR HVY RAIN WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY AT THE WEB ADDRESS LISTED BELOW.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1345Z-1645Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. NEW AREAS
OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A COOLING/EXPANDING TREND NOTED IN
IR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO BANDS SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS ERN/CNTRL TX. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND WHERE MOISTURE VALUES ARE THE
HIGHEST. HOWEVER, EVEN IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT ORGANIZE INTO BANDS,
THE THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN STILL EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THE NEXT FEW HRS.

[srainhoutx]

NWS: Flood Watch extended to 4 PM. Chambers County Flood Watch cancelled.

[srainhoutx]

A couple of Flood Advisories have been issued...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

TXC185-201-339-473-021815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0045.100702T1519Z-100702T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-
1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1015 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED HEAVY
RAIN WAS FALLING OVER WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY. THERE ARE REPORTS OF
WATER BEING OVER THE ELDRIDGE PARKWAY AND GRANT IN CYPRESS AS OF
1010 AM.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL...LOCALLY UP TO 2
INCHES...FORECAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

TXC039-239-321-021730-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0046.100702T1539Z-100702T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JACKSON TX-BRAZORIA TX-MATAGORDA TX-
1039 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1036 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THESE COUNTIES
FROM THE GULF. EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY 1130 AM.

[djjordan]

Looks like we may be getting into a training situation for this afternoon again in Brazoria, Matagorda, Ft. Bend, Wharton, and eventually into S/SW/NW Harris County including parts of the Houston Metro west of Downtown ... just based on radar trends .... doesn't look too good. Would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Warnings out soon.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1131 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST
COLUMBIA. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL COMPLICATE AN ALREADY
DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DAMON...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...SWEENY...HOLIDAY LAKES...BRAZORIA...
BONNEY...BAILEY'S PRAIRIE AND ANGLETON.