Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

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jasons2k
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Thu May 14, 2020 7:43 pm

Let's take a look at Georgia. Their new cases peaked on April 7th with 1,598 cases. Governor Kemp opened the state back-up on April 24th. On April 24th, The New York Times wrote an opinion piece called "Why Georgia Isn’t Ready to Reopen, in Charts." Georgia was billed as the 'guinea pig' that was going to end in disaster, and would need a 2nd lockdown after a 2nd wave.

So what happened? On May 13th, Georgia reported 579 new cases. The cases have been trending down. There was no 2nd wave and I don't see a 2nd lockdown coming anytime soon.

In short, most of the pundits predicting gloom and doom for Georgia were completely wrong.


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DoctorMu
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 15, 2020 2:53 pm

I don't think so.

Sweden will have a worse economic contraction than the US per macroeconomic models in 2020, and already have the US equivalent of 120,000 dead. and no sign of new case reduction.

US is on a slow decrease overall, slowdown ion NY, NJ, but picking up elsewhere.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 15, 2020 3:00 pm

Something real.

Sorrento and Mt. Sinai are teaming to test an antibody cocktail with STI-1499. goes after the mechanism, preventing SARS-CoV 2 from hijacking ACE2. STI-1499 prevents docking of the virus with the enzyme.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3575064-s ... us-19-cure

That is potentially very exciting as it blocks the cascade that causes lung and heart damage at the source. Like shutting off flow of Gulf moisture.

Depending on the binding site, the ability of STI-1499 to work as COVID proteins mutate over time could work better than herd immunity or even a vaccine...and you might get herd immunity as a bonus. We'll see.

STI-1499 has been only used in vitro (petri dish), but will be in clinical trials as part of a cocktail at Mt Sinai soon.

https://www.biospace.com/article/sorren ... effective/

unome
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by unome » Thu May 21, 2020 5:49 pm

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 286096.php

Using cellphone data, national study predicts huge June spike in Houston coronavirus cases

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Ptarmigan
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Thu May 21, 2020 8:39 pm

unome wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 5:49 pm
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 286096.php

Using cellphone data, national study predicts huge June spike in Houston coronavirus cases
Here is the link of the study using cellphone data.
https://policylab.chop.edu/covid-lab-ma ... -community

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Thu May 21, 2020 8:50 pm

Simulated Sunlight Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar ... 74/5841129

Sunlight does sterilize and destroy COVID-19 virus. 8-)

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Fri May 22, 2020 6:44 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:50 pm
Simulated Sunlight Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar ... 74/5841129

Sunlight does sterilize and destroy COVID-19 virus. 8-)
If we could only get the sunlight on the inside. :lol:

The good news is that we don't think SARS-CoV is transmitted well on surfaces. It's the aerosol and droplets. Wear those masks!

With the new Lance paper out today testing 96,000 patients, HCQ is a bust, actually increasing the death rate and cardiac arrhythmias substantially.

Some guarded good news - Dr. Fauci stated today that a vaccine by December is conceivable.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:51 pm

Does the pathogenesis of SAR-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7175867/
Our epidemiological analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic clearly indicates a decrease of prevalence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations living at altitude of above 3,000 masl. The reason for decreased severity of the global COVID-19 outbreak at high altitude could relate to both environmental and physiological factors.

Environmental factors may influence the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 at high-altitude. Indeed, a high-altitude environment is characterized by drastic changes in temperature between night and day, air dryness, and high levels of ultraviolet (UV) light radiation (United-States-Environmental-Protection-Agency 2017). In particular UV light radiation A (UVA) and B (UVB) is well known to be capable of producing alterations in the molecular bonds of the DNA and RNA, and thus UV radiation at high-altitude may act as a natural sanitizer (Andrade 2020; Zubieta-Calleja 2020a; Zubieta-Calleja and Zubieta-DeUrioste 2017). In relation to SARS-CoV-2, while complete disinfection cannot be achieved by UVA and UVB, these radiations should shorten the half-life of any given virus (Andrade 2020; Zubieta-Calleja 2020b). It is clear that, all together, these factors may dramatically reduce the “survival” capacity of the virus at high-altitude, and therefore its virulence. Finally, due to the lower density of air and greater distance between molecules at high-altitude, the size of the airborne virus inoculum must be smaller than at sea level.

Although the data of the present study suggest a strongly decreased pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 in high-altitude, there is yet no evidence of an underlying physiological mechanisms that could affect to severity of infection. However, there is a positive correlation between the infection rate of SARS-CoV-1 and ACE2 in pulmonary epithelial cells. Importantly both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 bind to ACE2 (Lu et al. 2020; Rothan and Byrareddy 2020; van Doremalen et al., 2020), and thus a putative decrease of ACE2 expression in pulmonary endothelia in high-altitude inhabitant could represent a physiological protective for the severe and often lethal pulmonary edema.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:09 pm

Space City Weather provided an update today on this topic. It’s worth the read. Those guys do a great job.

https://spacecityweather.com/revisiting ... -in-texas/

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