Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon May 11, 2020 8:38 pm

I like this option in dealing with coronavirus.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263
If we take these six steps to mobilize and organize the nation, we can defeat Covid-19 by early June.

1. Establish unified command. The President should surprise his critics and appoint a commander who reports directly to the President. This person must have the President’s full confidence and must earn the confidence of the American people. This is not a coordinator across agencies. This commander carries the full power and authority of the American President to mobilize every civilian and military asset needed to win the war. Ask every governor to appoint an individual state commander with similar statewide authority. The diversity of our nation and the various stages of the epidemic in different regions allow us to target responses to specific places and times, deploy and redeploy limited national supplies where they can do the most good, and learn from experience as we go.

2. Make millions of diagnostic tests available. Not everyone needs to be tested, but everyone with symptoms does. The nation needs to gear up to perform millions of diagnostic tests in the next 2 weeks. This was key to success in South Korea. Every decision about managing cases depends on sound medical evaluation and the results of diagnostic tests. Without diagnostic tests, we cannot trace the scope of the outbreak. Use creative ways to mobilize the nation’s research laboratories to assist with population screening; refer persons who screen positive for further evaluation. Organize dedicated clinical test sites in every community that are physically apart from other care centers, such as the drive-through test centers that have begun to spring up.

3. Supply health workers with PPE and equip hospitals to care for a surge in severely ill patients. Ample supplies of PPE (personal protective equipment) should be standard issue to every U.S. health worker who is in the front lines caring for patients and testing for infection. We wouldn’t send soldiers into battle without ballistic vests; health workers on the front lines of this war deserve no less. Regional distribution centers should rapidly deploy ventilators and other needed equipment from the national stockpile to hospitals with the greatest need. Despite everyone’s best efforts, in areas hardest hit, crisis standards of care will need to be put into effect to make ethically sound, unavoidable decisions about the use of available equipment and supplies.

4. Differentiate the population into five groups and treat accordingly. We first need to know who is infected; second, who is presumed to be infected (i.e., persons with signs and symptoms consistent with infection who initially test negative); third, who has been exposed; fourth, who is not known to have been exposed or infected; and fifth, who has recovered from infection and is adequately immune. We should act on the basis of symptoms, examinations, tests (currently, polymerase-chain-reaction assays to detect viral RNA), and exposures to identify those who belong in each of the first four groups. Hospitalize those with severe disease or at high risk. Establish infirmaries by utilizing empty convention centers, for example, to care for those with mild or moderate disease and at low risk; an isolation infirmary for all patients will decrease transmission to family members. Convert now-empty hotels into quarantine centers to house those who have been exposed, and separate them from the general population for 2 weeks; this kind of quarantine will remain practical until and unless the epidemic has exploded in a particular city or region. Being able to identify the fifth group — those who were previously infected, have recovered, and are adequately immune — requires development, validation, and deployment of antibody-based tests. This would be a game-changer in restarting parts of the economy more quickly and safely.

5. Inspire and mobilize the public. In this all-out effort, everyone has a part to play and virtually everyone is willing. We have begun to unleash American ingenuity in creating new treatments and a vaccine, providing a greater variety and number of diagnostic tests, and using the power of information technology, social media, artificial intelligence, and high-speed computing to devise novel solutions. These efforts should be intensified. Everyone can help reduce the risk of exposure and support their friends and neighbors in this critical time. After all health workers have the masks they need, the U.S. Postal Service and willing private companies can join to deliver surgical masks and hand sanitizer to every American household. If everyone wears a surgical mask outside the home, those who are presymptomatic and infected will be less likely to spread the infection to others. And if everyone wears a mask, no stigma is attached.

6. Learn while doing through real-time, fundamental research. Clinical care would be vastly improved by effective antiviral treatment, and every plausible avenue should be investigated. We did it with HIV; now, we need to do it faster with SARS-CoV-2. Clinicians need better predictors of which patient’s condition is prone to deteriorate rapidly or who may go on to die. Decisions to shape the public health response and to restart the economy should be guided by science. If we learn how many people have been infected and whether they are now immune, we may determine it’s safe for them to return to their jobs and resume more normal activities. Is it safe for others to return to work? That depends on the level of infection still ongoing, on the nature of possible exposures in the workplace, and on reliable screening and rapid detection of new cases. Can schools safely reopen? That depends on what we learn about children as transmitters of the virus to their teachers, parents, and grandparents. How dangerous are contaminated spaces and surfaces? That depends on the survival of virus under different environmental conditions and on various materials.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Mon May 11, 2020 9:29 pm

Or, we could be like Sweden, and be done this summer.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon May 11, 2020 9:35 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:29 pm
Or, we could be like Sweden, and be done this summer.
I wish we can eradicate COVID-19 for good. :twisted: 8-)

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon May 11, 2020 9:39 pm

Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in Metropolitan Houston, Texas
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.072652v2

There are many COVID-19 viruses in the Houston area.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Mon May 11, 2020 9:44 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:39 pm
Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in Metropolitan Houston, Texas
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.072652v2

There are many COVID-19 viruses in the Houston area.
Yes!! Thank you !!

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Tue May 12, 2020 12:46 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 11:34 am
There is another flare-up in South Korea.

Mark my words, in 6 months, the countries that opened-up sooner and got past the curve sooner will be in better shape. Places like South Korea are still gonna be fighting this.

With a virus, you have three options to fight it:
1) Containment 2) vaccine 3) herd immunity.

1) We are well past the point of containment. We missed that chance back in December, maybe even November according to some of the latest evidence. So, cross that off the list.
2) We may not ever even get a vaccine, much less in 12 or 18 months. And even if we fast-track a vaccine in a 12/18/24 month cycle without the usual long-term clinical testing, there are two problems here: a) it’s totally unsustainable (or reasonable) to lockdown the world for that long and b) this is still a potential public health risk. Are you willing to take a fast-tracked, questionable vaccine without the usual testing protocols? I’m not. Millions will feel the same way. (And just to clarify I am in no way at all an ‘anti-vaxxer’ — this is just a unique circumstance).
3) Herd immunity. Steeper curve, and sadly more lives may be lost all at once, but you get past the peak and on the downslope must faster. Society and the economy return to “normal” much faster.

As I see it, the only viable option left is herd immunity. We are well past the point of controlling this with containment measures. Pipe dream. And having the whole world sit at home until we get a vaccine is just silly. We may never even get one to begin with, so then what?!?

Edit: Incidentally, Sweden just reported the lowest number of new cases since March 22nd. By the end of the summer, they will be in much better shape than we are.
The H1N1 vax was fast-tracked and worked - only 10K dead in the US and most did not get the vaccine. There is no real risk to a well-tested vaccine. The only question is - will it work?

No sound epidemiologist or Infectious Disease doc is on board the Sweden train. They've been on the left side of the curve and deaths are spiraling. Sweden's phase delay is long because

1. January is not a great time to visit Sweden

2. Most Swedes live alone

3. Outside Stockholm, the country is sparsely populated

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... wn-relaxed


Cases in Texas are spiking.


I'm not saying don't incrementally open states (made necessary by our delayed response)...but everyone must wear masks, practice social distancing. We need 3-5M PCR tests in the nation daily. We have to mass produce the Abbott antibody test and link it to immunity. Most of the 149 other commercial antibody tests are garbage.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Tue May 12, 2020 1:23 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:44 pm
Ptarmigan wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:39 pm
Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in Metropolitan Houston, Texas
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.072652v2

There are many COVID-19 viruses in the Houston area.
Yes!! Thank you !!

I would not celebrate yet. There is some good news, some not so good news contained in the full article.

- Visitors from Europe and Asia arrived at Bush, etc. and spread SARS-CoV 2. Scientists had previously identified 2-3 mega strains.

- There are polymorphisms (varieties) in the nsp12 polymerase and the Spike proteins

- Good news/Bad news: the polymorphisms in the nsp polymerase and the spike protein don't make the COVID-19 disease worse. But the polymorphisms don't make the disease less virulent re: symptoms, either. COVID is not simply disappearing anytime soon.

- Good news: the polymorphisms/varieties in the nsp12 gene are not so far encoding for the 2 amino acid substitutions (Phe476Leu, Val553Leu) that would confer resistance to remdesivir, the anti-viral agent found to reduce the severity and length of COVID-19.

- Could be bad news, alternative strategy: Polymorphisms of the Spike Protein are something to watch. Both herd immunity and immunity to classic vaccine approaches could be compromised. Given that polymorphisms don't appear to be affecting severity of symptoms, and that the spike protein is still attacking the protective ACE2 (angiotensin converting enzyme 2) protein/enzyme (it produces a truncated/shortened peptide of angiotensin that protects the lungs, heart, brain, skeletal muscle)...the situation will have to be monitored.

The good news is that so far South Koreans who have recovered from COVID-19 have not been reinfected.

The Houston data suggests that alternative strategies for treating/vaccination for COVID would involved finding and using the RNA sequence within the SARS-CoV 2 virus and Spike protein that are conserved (don't change) and target them with an antibody treatment or vaccine that injects a synthetic RNA fragment (some vaccines like this are being developed now - they'd be save, but testing would reveal whether they are effective)



There is a Nightmare Scenario: There is no Herd Immunity (or vaccine) for the common cold. Too main strains mutating too fast, and no massive public health interest to find conserve RNA and amino acid segments in the proteins to make a vaccine or antibody treatment that works. The concern is that SARS CoV 2 becomes the Common Cold II on "steroids." Because SARS CoV-2 largely produces morbidity and mortality after age 60, there would likely be no human evolutionary adaptation to it, as it takes out millions each year and renders 10s of millions with permanently damaged lungs in waves ad infinitum.

My point is that SARS CoV-2 IS the great scientific and public health challenge of the Century, maybe the species. I hope the innovation it engenders will revolutionize biomedical science and new industries and protect the public. I also hope that this will focus our society towards PREVENTION. Whether it is pandemics, chronic diseases, tropical systems, tornadoes/severe weather, climate change, etc.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Tue May 12, 2020 5:20 pm

I wasn’t celebrating anything; I was thanking him for the study. We have a long way to go, still.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Wed May 13, 2020 9:02 am

Yep. It was good to see "Dr. Fauci, Unchained" yesterday.

Because we STILL don't have adequate testing or infrastructure for contact tracing., people are not keeping social distance and only a minority are wearing masks, spikes will become outbreaks. Hardly any counties/states have White House level resources. I can't get a PCR test in Brazos County for SARS-Cov 2 presence without hospitalization.

Mitigation/shutdowns were and are not necessary IF we have testing, contact tracing, quarantine, sufficient PPEs and social distancing.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Thu May 14, 2020 2:12 pm

Dr. Fauci said it himself - he does not provide economic advice. The problem is that we have two crises right now 1) a public health crisis and 2) an economic crisis. You can’t completely address one crisis without sacrificing something with the other.

Dr. Fauci, while a brilliant doctor, is not an economist. If we followed all of his recommendations to the letter ‘in order to save lives’ we may prevent people from catching the virus, but then everyone starves to death in the ensuing economic collapse. So much for saving lives.

Food doesn’t just magically show-up in everyone’s pantry.

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