Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

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unome
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by unome » Tue May 05, 2020 4:42 pm

Collingsworth County, TX - 28% of population infection rate per https://infection2020.com/ (change legend to % of population)

can this be correct ? what employers or large populations of people housed together are in that county ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collingsw ... nty,_Texas

https://tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/hcc17

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DoctorMu
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Wed May 06, 2020 8:55 am

Yeah, I doubt we're in the neighborhood of herd immunity anywhere - maybe NYC. Not enough PCR testing. The antibody test has a huge false positive rate.

The response was months behind the curve. It's a dumpster fire. No signs yet of seasonality.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Cpv17 » Wed May 06, 2020 5:27 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 8:55 am
Yeah, I doubt we're in the neighborhood of herd immunity anywhere - maybe NYC. Not enough PCR testing. The antibody test has a huge false positive rate.

The response was months behind the curve. It's a dumpster fire. No signs yet of seasonality.
It’s funny how you don’t hear the local news stations or media talk about how bad the spread has been here in Texas since opening up last Friday. It’s way worse now than what it was 3 or 4 weeks ago. Yet you don’t hear any mention of that on the news. I guess they don’t want to make the big political shots look bad for opening up. All they’ve talked about this week is how things are opening back up and giving a false impression that things are improving. We’re headed down a very worrisome road over the next few weeks in my opinion. Opening things back up makes zero sense to me at this moment. Sorry if this is off topic but I felt like it needed to be mentioned.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Wed May 06, 2020 7:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 5:27 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 8:55 am
Yeah, I doubt we're in the neighborhood of herd immunity anywhere - maybe NYC. Not enough PCR testing. The antibody test has a huge false positive rate.

The response was months behind the curve. It's a dumpster fire. No signs yet of seasonality.
It’s funny how you don’t hear the local news stations or media talk about how bad the spread has been here in Texas since opening up last Friday. It’s way worse now than what it was 3 or 4 weeks ago. Yet you don’t hear any mention of that on the news. I guess they don’t want to make the big political shots look bad for opening up. All they’ve talked about this week is how things are opening back up and giving a false impression that things are improving. We’re headed down a very worrisome road over the next few weeks in my opinion. Opening things back up makes zero sense to me at this moment. Sorry if this is off topic but I felt like it needed to be mentioned.

While NY is on the right side of the curve, most of the rest of the nation are still on the left side and upslope of the curve. A "phase delay."

Think about ripples of infection emanating from discrete sites... where travel, high density, and lack of initial mitigation were common. The ripples remain viable moving into suburbs and more rural areas because there is less wearing of PPEs (mask, gloves in public). When virtually no one wears a mask (like in Home Depot here on Monday), the Ro (transmissability) is ≥2.0. Each person infects 2 people (a doubling effect). If you ever grew bacteria in a Jr High or HS lab, you know what I'm talking about.

If everyone wears masks, the Ro is below 0.3 (far less than a cold). Importantly, if you are exposed to the SARS Cov 2 virus the viral load is likely to be low. That gives your immune system a chance at beating COVID-19.
The rest of the world is figuring it out. The Czech Republic did it with masks. China with isolation. Germany with testing. Hong Kong with experience. New Zealand with alerts. Greece with discipline
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/125 ... 66827?s=20
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu May 07, 2020 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Cpv17 » Wed May 06, 2020 8:44 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 7:27 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 5:27 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 8:55 am
Yeah, I doubt we're in the neighborhood of herd immunity anywhere - maybe NYC. Not enough PCR testing. The antibody test has a huge false positive rate.

The response was months behind the curve. It's a dumpster fire. No signs yet of seasonality.
It’s funny how you don’t hear the local news stations or media talk about how bad the spread has been here in Texas since opening up last Friday. It’s way worse now than what it was 3 or 4 weeks ago. Yet you don’t hear any mention of that on the news. I guess they don’t want to make the big political shots look bad for opening up. All they’ve talked about this week is how things are opening back up and giving a false impression that things are improving. We’re headed down a very worrisome road over the next few weeks in my opinion. Opening things back up makes zero sense to me at this moment. Sorry if this is off topic but I felt like it needed to be mentioned.

While NY is on the right side of the curve, most of the rest of the nation are still on the left side and upslope of the curve. A "phase delay."

Think about ripples of infection emanating from discrete sites... where travel, high density, and lack of initial mitigation were common. The ripples remain viable moving into suburbs and more rural areas because there is less wearing of PPEs (mask, gloves in public). When virtually no one wears a mask (like in Home Depot here on Monday), the Ro (transmissability) is ≥2.0. Each person infects 2 people (a doubling effect). If you ever grew bacteria in a Jr High or HS lab, you know what I'm talking about.

If everyone wears masks, the Ro is below 3.0 (far less than a cold). Importantly, if you are exposed to the SARS Cov 2 virus the viral load is likely to be low. That gives your immune system a chance at beating COVID-19.
The rest of the world is figuring it out. The Czech Republic did it with masks. China with isolation. Germany with testing. Hong Kong with experience. New Zealand with alerts. Greece with discipline
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/125 ... 66827?s=20
Exactly! Lots of places still on the left side of the curve, but yet there’s all these openings. Makes no sense. Why’d we even close down to begin with?

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Thu May 07, 2020 12:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote: Exactly! Lots of places still on the left side of the curve, but yet there’s all these openings. Makes no sense. Why’d we even close down to begin with?
The more data I see, the more I question this myself. Perhaps we prevented a massive tsunami of patients into the ERs, but other than that, all we have accomplished is to delay the inevitable, all while destroying the strongest economy in history.

The sooner we can get on the backside of the curve, the sooner we can get back to normal.

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DoctorMu
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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Thu May 07, 2020 8:53 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:13 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Exactly! Lots of places still on the left side of the curve, but yet there’s all these openings. Makes no sense. Why’d we even close down to begin with?
The more data I see, the more I question this myself. Perhaps we prevented a massive tsunami of patients into the ERs, but other than that, all we have accomplished is to delay the inevitable, all while destroying the strongest economy in history.

The sooner we can get on the backside of the curve, the sooner we can get back to normal.

It was indeed about protecting the health care infrastructure. If we had used contact tracking and targeted quarantine plus testing, testing, testing, like South Korea we would not have had to shut things down. South Korea and Australia expect to see only small contraction in the economy...and largely due to trade with guess who...

COVID-16 was/is a slow moving CAT 4-5 hurricane. We simply did not prepare adequately, despite numerous warnings.
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A reminder, it's not too early to prepare for Tropical Season in SE Texas. I believe it is Hurricane Preparedness Week. I'm really pulling for major mid-level shear all summer in the Gulf and no Death Ridge over us! Is that too much to ask for?

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Fri May 08, 2020 3:38 pm

Well it will be interesting to see if the US and other places get to herd immunity, leaving these untouched places at high risk for new infections.

If you can’t tell, I’ve pretty much bought into the Swedish philosophy with this one. Get to herd immunity as a long-term solution and then you can move on. Otherwise, we’ll be endlessly putting out fires.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Sun May 10, 2020 11:21 am

jasons2k wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:38 pm
Well it will be interesting to see if the US and other places get to herd immunity, leaving these untouched places at high risk for new infections.

If you can’t tell, I’ve pretty much bought into the Swedish philosophy with this one. Get to herd immunity as a long-term solution and then you can move on. Otherwise, we’ll be endlessly putting out fires.
It takes 60-70% of the population to reach herd immunity.

Sweden has the US equivalent of 100,000 deaths and rising and will have a 5.4% economic contraction. They are still on the left side of the curve...and remember most people in Sweden live alone.

South Korea has a US equivalent of about a 1000 deaths and will only have a 0.6% contraction.



The US response could even generate $0.75 masks for all and sufficient tests. We cranked out 8 combat aircraft every hour at the peak of WWII. I can't get the PCR test without hospitalization in Brazos Co.

We can't abandon hard data for wishful thinking. Only 15% of the public is wearing masks out and about.
The level of a lack of readiness is astounding. We don't contact trace or target quarantine.

Whether it's a CAT 4-5 hurricane or a CAT4-5 Pandemic preparedness is the key.

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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by jasons2k » Mon May 11, 2020 11:34 am

There is another flare-up in South Korea.

Mark my words, in 6 months, the countries that opened-up sooner and got past the curve sooner will be in better shape. Places like South Korea are still gonna be fighting this.

With a virus, you have three options to fight it:
1) Containment 2) vaccine 3) herd immunity.

1) We are well past the point of containment. We missed that chance back in December, maybe even November according to some of the latest evidence. So, cross that off the list.
2) We may not ever even get a vaccine, much less in 12 or 18 months. And even if we fast-track a vaccine in a 12/18/24 month cycle without the usual long-term clinical testing, there are two problems here: a) it’s totally unsustainable (or reasonable) to lockdown the world for that long and b) this is still a potential public health risk. Are you willing to take a fast-tracked, questionable vaccine without the usual testing protocols? I’m not. Millions will feel the same way. (And just to clarify I am in no way at all an ‘anti-vaxxer’ — this is just a unique circumstance).
3) Herd immunity. Steeper curve, and sadly more lives may be lost all at once, but you get past the peak and on the downslope must faster. Society and the economy return to “normal” much faster.

As I see it, the only viable option left is herd immunity. We are well past the point of controlling this with containment measures. Pipe dream. And having the whole world sit at home until we get a vaccine is just silly. We may never even get one to begin with, so then what?!?

Edit: Incidentally, Sweden just reported the lowest number of new cases since March 22nd. By the end of the summer, they will be in much better shape than we are.

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