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Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:40 am
by Ptarmigan
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Coronavirus Dashboard
https://ncov2019.live/data

Worldometer-Coronavirus Cases, Includes New Cases
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1Point3Acres-COVID-19 In US And Canada
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:47 pm
by unome
these may be of help to someone?

https://www.projectn95.com/

https://www.usdigitalresponse.org/

share their info if you know of someone who could benefit from their assistance

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:11 pm
by Ptarmigan
unome wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:47 pm these may be of help to someone?

https://www.projectn95.com/

https://www.usdigitalresponse.org/

share their info if you know of someone who could benefit from their assistance
Thank you Unome.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:34 pm
by Ptarmigan
Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3556998

COVID-19 has been spreading mostly in cooler areas like Wuhan, Milan, Tehran, London, Madrid, and New York City.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:17 pm
by DoctorMu
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:58 am Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3550308

COVID-19 is mostly striking areas between 30 to 50 degrees latitude, like Wuhan, Daegu, Northern Iran, Northern Italy, Seattle, and New York City.
That's where most people live.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:24 pm
by DoctorMu
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:03 pm Deep dive: Coronavirus vs. population and temperatures
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... res/701036

Interesting article. Some highly populated areas are affected by COVID-19 like China, South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, Spain, and France. Same goes with Seattle, New York City, and Boston. India on the other hand has not seen many cases.

There are other factors that come to play.

The SARS-CoV 2 virus that causes COVID-19 has an outer cell membrane or lipid bilayer with embedded proteins surround the RNA core. Anything that

1. dissolves the membrane

or

2. oxidized the membrane bilayer will inactivate the virus

Soap, alcohol, ammonia products, hydrogen peroxide, bleach, UV rays, heat

The incidence right now is lower in the Southern Hemisphere and across the equator. Will that last? Coronaviruses, unlike flu are technically not seasonal...but they do mutate and can "burn out." The human immune system and genome attempts to mutat the virus - which now has a deletion mutation.

We need more data to see if COVID-19 will swell during the Southern Hemisphere winter, whether it's surpressed here beginning in May, and whether there's a boomerang effect in October. More questions than answers still!

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:31 pm
by DoctorMu
Ptarmigan wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:16 pm Increased UV exposure may limit spread of new coronavirus
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rus/703393

Spring and Summer is coming. It could curb the spread of COVID-19.
Right - get outside in your yard, but not near people yet!

UV light is a great viral disinfectant.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:20 pm
by Ptarmigan
COVID-19 Projections
https://covid19.healthdata.org

The peak for America is forecasted in mid-April. Texas see its peak in early May.

Forecast model is subject to change.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:14 am
by BlueJay
This is very grim.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:03 pm
by unome
it is also affecting the amount of observations available to weather models

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1245729628473483265

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the amount of aircraft observations available to weather prediction models. Daily totals over Europe have decreased by around 80% (from around 50 000 per day down to 10 000) since flight restrictions came into force. @WMO

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:51 am
by BlueJay
unome wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:03 pm it is also affecting the amount of observations available to weather models

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1245729628473483265

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the amount of aircraft observations available to weather prediction models. Daily totals over Europe have decreased by around 80% (from around 50 000 per day down to 10 000) since flight restrictions came into force. @WMO

This could interfere with our projected active hurricane season. Yikes!!

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:29 pm
by Ptarmigan
Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

COVID-19 is the third leading cause of daily death in America.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:35 pm
by Ptarmigan
Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
https://medium.com/@ra.hobday/coronavir ... 9151dc8065

During the Spanish Flu pandemic, patients who were exposed to sunlight and fresh air had better chance of survival and recovery.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:36 pm
by Ptarmigan
BlueJay wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:51 am
unome wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:03 pm it is also affecting the amount of observations available to weather models

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1245729628473483265

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the amount of aircraft observations available to weather prediction models. Daily totals over Europe have decreased by around 80% (from around 50 000 per day down to 10 000) since flight restrictions came into force. @WMO

This could interfere with our projected active hurricane season. Yikes!!
Or any weather forecast including severe weather season of spring.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:58 am
by BlueJay
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:29 pm Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

COVID-19 is the third leading cause of daily death in America.
This is an amazing and EYE OPENING graph.

Thanks for sharing, Pt

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:42 pm
by Cromagnum
Well, accidents are WAY down because so few are commuting so there is that going for us at least.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:04 pm
by Ptarmigan
BlueJay wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:58 am
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:29 pm Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

COVID-19 is the third leading cause of daily death in America.
This is an amazing and EYE OPENING graph.

Thanks for sharing, Pt
I agree. It is very eye opening. :( :cry:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:05 pm
by Ptarmigan
No Association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities
https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/ear ... 00517-2020

This study suggests there is no connection between temperature or ultraviolet radiation and COVID-19. Other studies have suggested it.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:14 pm
by Ptarmigan
Researchers probe whether heat & humidity will slow COVID-19
http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/rep ... -covid-19/

Heat and humidity likely slows the spread of COVID-19 from a MIT study.

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Posted: Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:25 pm
by Ptarmigan
Researchers seek what weather can reveal about COVID-19's future areas of highest risk
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... isk/721277?

Most COVID-19 cases in America have been up north, mainly New York City, Detroit, Boston, Seattle, and Chicago area.