Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3355
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:40 am

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Coronavirus Dashboard
https://ncov2019.live/data

Worldometer-Coronavirus Cases, Includes New Cases
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1Point3Acres-COVID-19 In US And Canada
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

unome
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm
Location: Cypress

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by unome » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:47 pm

these may be of help to someone?

https://www.projectn95.com/

https://www.usdigitalresponse.org/

share their info if you know of someone who could benefit from their assistance

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3355
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:11 pm

unome wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:47 pm
these may be of help to someone?

https://www.projectn95.com/

https://www.usdigitalresponse.org/

share their info if you know of someone who could benefit from their assistance
Thank you Unome.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3355
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:34 pm

Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3556998

COVID-19 has been spreading mostly in cooler areas like Wuhan, Milan, Tehran, London, Madrid, and New York City.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 1827
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:17 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:58 am
Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3550308

COVID-19 is mostly striking areas between 30 to 50 degrees latitude, like Wuhan, Daegu, Northern Iran, Northern Italy, Seattle, and New York City.
That's where most people live.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 1827
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:24 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:03 pm
Deep dive: Coronavirus vs. population and temperatures
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... res/701036

Interesting article. Some highly populated areas are affected by COVID-19 like China, South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, Spain, and France. Same goes with Seattle, New York City, and Boston. India on the other hand has not seen many cases.

There are other factors that come to play.

The SARS-CoV 2 virus that causes COVID-19 has an outer cell membrane or lipid bilayer with embedded proteins surround the RNA core. Anything that

1. dissolves the membrane

or

2. oxidized the membrane bilayer will inactivate the virus

Soap, alcohol, ammonia products, hydrogen peroxide, bleach, UV rays, heat

The incidence right now is lower in the Southern Hemisphere and across the equator. Will that last? Coronaviruses, unlike flu are technically not seasonal...but they do mutate and can "burn out." The human immune system and genome attempts to mutat the virus - which now has a deletion mutation.

We need more data to see if COVID-19 will swell during the Southern Hemisphere winter, whether it's surpressed here beginning in May, and whether there's a boomerang effect in October. More questions than answers still!

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 1827
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:31 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:16 pm
Increased UV exposure may limit spread of new coronavirus
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rus/703393

Spring and Summer is coming. It could curb the spread of COVID-19.
Right - get outside in your yard, but not near people yet!

UV light is a great viral disinfectant.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3355
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by Ptarmigan » Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:20 pm

COVID-19 Projections
https://covid19.healthdata.org

The peak for America is forecasted in mid-April. Texas see its peak in early May.

Forecast model is subject to change.

BlueJay
Posts: 860
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by BlueJay » Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:14 am

This is very grim.

unome
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm
Location: Cypress

Re: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Post by unome » Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:03 pm

it is also affecting the amount of observations available to weather models

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1245729628473483265

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the amount of aircraft observations available to weather prediction models. Daily totals over Europe have decreased by around 80% (from around 50 000 per day down to 10 000) since flight restrictions came into force. @WMO

Post Reply