Re: March 2020
Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:39 pm
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.000
FXUS64 KHGX 111155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
.AVIATION...
A mix of LIFR/IFR conds will prevail early this morning. Drier air
aloft should begin to mix toward the surface and slightly
stronger sfc winds should foster some improvement to MVFR by mid
morning and VFR by afternoon. VFR conds will prevail into this
evening before low level mstr trapped beneath a capping inversion
brings another round of MVFR/IFR conditions.
KGLS will be prone to periods of sea fog this morning and again
tonight. Not much confidence for this TAF site with regard to
ceilings and visibility. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Dense fog has returned to the SW half of the region and satellite
shows this area expanding to the E-NE. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect through 15z for the SW zones and the advisory will
probably need to be expanded to the north and east later this
morning. PW values remain around 1.20 inches today and fcst
soundings show a weak but breakable cap. Won`t mention PoPs today
but can`t completely rule a stray shower or two. Fcst soundings
also show quite a bit of dry air above 700 mb and feel some of the
dry air will mix to the surface and aid in mixing out some of the
cloud cover so there should be some sunshine this afternoon. 850
mb temps are around 13 C and this would support high temperatures
near 80 degrees afternoon.
Much like last night, skies will briefly clear in the evening but
clouds and area of fog will make a return by Thursday morning.
Clouds and light onshore winds will keep temps on the warm side with
low temperatures only expected to cool into the mid 60`s. 850
temperatures warm significantly overnight from 13 C to 17 C by
Thursday afternoon. Capping will increase and not expecting any
precip on Thursday. However, clouds will hang around and blunt some
of the expected warming. That said, high temps will reach the lower
80`s with a few spots probably reaching the mid 80`s. 43
LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
Little change to the overall pattern is expected as we head into
the weekend with surface high pressure remaining in place over
the southeastern CONUS and low pressure off to our northwest. As
a result of this, continued onshore flow will allow for the
unseasonably warm and moist conditions that the SE Texas region
has been experiencing over the past several days to continue. High
temperatures through the weekend will reach the upper 70s to low
80s inland and in the low to mid 70s along the coast, while lows
in the upper 60s can be expected across the forecast area. For
comparison, climatogical normal highs and lows for this time of
year are 71/50 at College Station, 72/54 at Houston, and 70/56 at
Galveston.
The development of marine fog remains a concern through at least
the end of the weekend with these onshore winds and elevated
surface moisture levels still anticipated. Global models continue
to indicate that surface precipitable water values will remain in
the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range across the bays and coastal waters,
thereby continuing to keep dewpoint depressions at a minimum. Some
areas dense fog will continue to be possible in the morning
hours, much like we have been experiencing over the past couple of
days.
On Friday, a surface front looks to approach SE Texas before
eventually stalling out in the vicinity of the northern edge of
the CWA. Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are
expected to accompany this approaching boundary, with the highest
chances for precipitation through the weekend in locations north
of I-10. With the boundary expected to remain offshore heading
into the early part of next week, continued warm and moist
conditions can be expected.
Cady
AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Conditions still favorable for mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or
visibilities to develop overnight at most of our sites. Sea fog
will likely move back onshore/inland for the GLS TAF. There is
currently no rain in the forecast for Wednesday, and expect the
lower morning visibilities/ceilings to become VFR by late in the
morning or early in the afternoon. For the most part look for a
repeat Wednesday night through Thursday morning. 42
MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressures over the
western plains will maintain a weak onshore flow today through
Thursday. The onshore flow will strengthen a bit Thursday night
into Friday as low pressure deepens over West Texas. A cold front
will move into North Texas on Saturday night and stall north of
the coastal waters with a weak to occasionally moderate flow
persisting into early next week. The persistent onshore flow will
help to keep seas slightly elevated through the weekend.
Periods of dense sea fog will prevail this morning and will probably
make another appearance tonight but as water temperatures warm,
conditions will become less favorable for sea fog over the weekend.
That said, SREF probabilities for fog remain high through Saturday.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 63 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 81 65 81 67 79 / 0 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 65 72 65 72 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...99
.000
FXUS64 KHGX 111155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
.AVIATION...
A mix of LIFR/IFR conds will prevail early this morning. Drier air
aloft should begin to mix toward the surface and slightly
stronger sfc winds should foster some improvement to MVFR by mid
morning and VFR by afternoon. VFR conds will prevail into this
evening before low level mstr trapped beneath a capping inversion
brings another round of MVFR/IFR conditions.
KGLS will be prone to periods of sea fog this morning and again
tonight. Not much confidence for this TAF site with regard to
ceilings and visibility. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Dense fog has returned to the SW half of the region and satellite
shows this area expanding to the E-NE. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect through 15z for the SW zones and the advisory will
probably need to be expanded to the north and east later this
morning. PW values remain around 1.20 inches today and fcst
soundings show a weak but breakable cap. Won`t mention PoPs today
but can`t completely rule a stray shower or two. Fcst soundings
also show quite a bit of dry air above 700 mb and feel some of the
dry air will mix to the surface and aid in mixing out some of the
cloud cover so there should be some sunshine this afternoon. 850
mb temps are around 13 C and this would support high temperatures
near 80 degrees afternoon.
Much like last night, skies will briefly clear in the evening but
clouds and area of fog will make a return by Thursday morning.
Clouds and light onshore winds will keep temps on the warm side with
low temperatures only expected to cool into the mid 60`s. 850
temperatures warm significantly overnight from 13 C to 17 C by
Thursday afternoon. Capping will increase and not expecting any
precip on Thursday. However, clouds will hang around and blunt some
of the expected warming. That said, high temps will reach the lower
80`s with a few spots probably reaching the mid 80`s. 43
LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
Little change to the overall pattern is expected as we head into
the weekend with surface high pressure remaining in place over
the southeastern CONUS and low pressure off to our northwest. As
a result of this, continued onshore flow will allow for the
unseasonably warm and moist conditions that the SE Texas region
has been experiencing over the past several days to continue. High
temperatures through the weekend will reach the upper 70s to low
80s inland and in the low to mid 70s along the coast, while lows
in the upper 60s can be expected across the forecast area. For
comparison, climatogical normal highs and lows for this time of
year are 71/50 at College Station, 72/54 at Houston, and 70/56 at
Galveston.
The development of marine fog remains a concern through at least
the end of the weekend with these onshore winds and elevated
surface moisture levels still anticipated. Global models continue
to indicate that surface precipitable water values will remain in
the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range across the bays and coastal waters,
thereby continuing to keep dewpoint depressions at a minimum. Some
areas dense fog will continue to be possible in the morning
hours, much like we have been experiencing over the past couple of
days.
On Friday, a surface front looks to approach SE Texas before
eventually stalling out in the vicinity of the northern edge of
the CWA. Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are
expected to accompany this approaching boundary, with the highest
chances for precipitation through the weekend in locations north
of I-10. With the boundary expected to remain offshore heading
into the early part of next week, continued warm and moist
conditions can be expected.
Cady
AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Conditions still favorable for mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or
visibilities to develop overnight at most of our sites. Sea fog
will likely move back onshore/inland for the GLS TAF. There is
currently no rain in the forecast for Wednesday, and expect the
lower morning visibilities/ceilings to become VFR by late in the
morning or early in the afternoon. For the most part look for a
repeat Wednesday night through Thursday morning. 42
MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressures over the
western plains will maintain a weak onshore flow today through
Thursday. The onshore flow will strengthen a bit Thursday night
into Friday as low pressure deepens over West Texas. A cold front
will move into North Texas on Saturday night and stall north of
the coastal waters with a weak to occasionally moderate flow
persisting into early next week. The persistent onshore flow will
help to keep seas slightly elevated through the weekend.
Periods of dense sea fog will prevail this morning and will probably
make another appearance tonight but as water temperatures warm,
conditions will become less favorable for sea fog over the weekend.
That said, SREF probabilities for fog remain high through Saturday.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 63 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 81 65 81 67 79 / 0 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 65 72 65 72 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...99