March 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Re: March 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:39 am

Back to weather...



.000
FXUS64 KHGX 111155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of LIFR/IFR conds will prevail early this morning. Drier air
aloft should begin to mix toward the surface and slightly
stronger sfc winds should foster some improvement to MVFR by mid
morning and VFR by afternoon. VFR conds will prevail into this
evening before low level mstr trapped beneath a capping inversion
brings another round of MVFR/IFR conditions.

KGLS will be prone to periods of sea fog this morning and again
tonight. Not much confidence for this TAF site with regard to
ceilings and visibility. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...

Dense fog has returned to the SW half of the region and satellite
shows this area expanding to the E-NE. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect through 15z for the SW zones and the advisory will
probably need to be expanded to the north and east later this
morning. PW values remain around 1.20 inches today and fcst
soundings show a weak but breakable cap. Won`t mention PoPs today
but can`t completely rule a stray shower or two. Fcst soundings
also show quite a bit of dry air above 700 mb and feel some of the
dry air will mix to the surface and aid in mixing out some of the
cloud cover so there should be some sunshine this afternoon. 850
mb temps are around 13 C and this would support high temperatures
near 80 degrees afternoon.

Much like last night, skies will briefly clear in the evening but
clouds and area of fog will make a return by Thursday morning.
Clouds and light onshore winds will keep temps on the warm side with
low temperatures only expected to cool into the mid 60`s. 850
temperatures warm significantly overnight from 13 C to 17 C by
Thursday afternoon. Capping will increase and not expecting any
precip on Thursday. However, clouds will hang around and blunt some
of the expected warming. That said, high temps will reach the lower
80`s with a few spots probably reaching the mid 80`s. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

Little change to the overall pattern is expected as we head into
the weekend with surface high pressure remaining in place over
the southeastern CONUS and low pressure off to our northwest. As
a result of this, continued onshore flow will allow for the
unseasonably warm and moist conditions that the SE Texas region
has been experiencing over the past several days to continue. High
temperatures through the weekend will reach the upper 70s to low
80s inland and in the low to mid 70s along the coast, while lows
in the upper 60s can be expected across the forecast area. For
comparison, climatogical normal highs and lows for this time of
year are 71/50 at College Station, 72/54 at Houston, and 70/56 at
Galveston.

The development of marine fog remains a concern through at least
the end of the weekend with these onshore winds and elevated
surface moisture levels still anticipated. Global models continue
to indicate that surface precipitable water values will remain in
the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range across the bays and coastal waters,
thereby continuing to keep dewpoint depressions at a minimum. Some
areas dense fog will continue to be possible in the morning
hours, much like we have been experiencing over the past couple of
days.

On Friday, a surface front looks to approach SE Texas before
eventually stalling out in the vicinity of the northern edge of
the CWA. Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are
expected to accompany this approaching boundary, with the highest
chances for precipitation through the weekend in locations north
of I-10. With the boundary expected to remain offshore heading
into the early part of next week, continued warm and moist
conditions can be expected.

Cady

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Conditions still favorable for mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or
visibilities to develop overnight at most of our sites. Sea fog
will likely move back onshore/inland for the GLS TAF. There is
currently no rain in the forecast for Wednesday, and expect the
lower morning visibilities/ceilings to become VFR by late in the
morning or early in the afternoon. For the most part look for a
repeat Wednesday night through Thursday morning. 42

MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressures over the
western plains will maintain a weak onshore flow today through
Thursday. The onshore flow will strengthen a bit Thursday night
into Friday as low pressure deepens over West Texas. A cold front
will move into North Texas on Saturday night and stall north of
the coastal waters with a weak to occasionally moderate flow
persisting into early next week. The persistent onshore flow will
help to keep seas slightly elevated through the weekend.

Periods of dense sea fog will prevail this morning and will probably
make another appearance tonight but as water temperatures warm,
conditions will become less favorable for sea fog over the weekend.
That said, SREF probabilities for fog remain high through Saturday.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 63 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 81 65 81 67 79 / 0 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 65 72 65 72 / 10 10 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...99

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Re: March 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:33 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111820
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
120 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions finally in place across most of SE TX at this time,
with coastal locations as the exception. Sea fog is lingering over
these areas (GLS) and should move further offshore later this aft-
ernoon/early evening before moving back inland overnight. Else, we
could still see some very isolated activity this afternoon, mainly
near to the coast. But, did not add any mention of VCSH in the LBX
/SGR/GLS TAFs at this time given the expected sparse coverage. For
tonight, did keep with previous trends of MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS as fog
and low clouds return. 41

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Re: March 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:54 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:45 am
jasons2k wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:18 am
GBinGrimes wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:47 pm


This is the biggest farce of all times. Pure media play + politically motivated and stock market shorted to the Nth degree. Come on...a TV copter showing a teacher from ATL being escorted out on a stretcher? Propaganda. It's the flu with a different name.

At the least, a world wide Pandemic test. At the worst...a bad game affecting far too many people and proof that blind sheep will follow anything.

Now...weather...I had to travel north of I 20 today to see sunshine. Down here in SE Texas, the grayness rules. Sorry Mr. Montgomery...give me 98, a partly cloudy sky and a solid chance of afternoon seabreeze showers or T storms. I do love me some bitter cold but the summer beckons. I want to be outside and sweat, then jump in the pool followed by an iced watermelon.
There is a lot of hype, yes, but I think it’s premature to call this all a farce. The mortality rate for the flu is .1%. The coronavirus mortality rate is about 2% (thus far) and much higher for seniors. Do the math. The potential loss of life is significant if this becomes widespread.

You can also get a flu vaccine. There is no vaccine for this coronavirus. You can’t equate the two. That’s based on science, not hype. The statistics are easily found on the CDC website.

This is nothing to sneeze at (pardon the pun).

Agreed on summer. Although I don’t care for the heat when it’s above 95 and the lows get into the 80’s. When it’s that hot there usually isn’t any rain either (death ridge). I much prefer mid 70’s to low 90’s with a chance of sea breeze storms. Can’t wait until it’s warm enough to jump in the pool too!
Corona virus and the media is going to kill the economy worldwide with the way it’s going.

Yep, the old Statist Cloward-Piven theory thinking.... never let a crisis go to waste. I hate 9/10 of Government bodies, LOL.


Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right... here I am, stuck in the middle with you....
Team #NeverSummer

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Re: March 2020

Post by tireman4 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:41 pm

And.....back....to weather......

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

With the fog dissipating early this morning, we have given way to
BKN/OVC but VFR conditions over much of SE TX this afternoon. Not
expecting any precipitation the rest of the day, but the mid/high
clouds will be persisting. Have trended more to MVFR restrictions
for low clouds/CIGS vs fog/VIS tonight given the progs of slight-
ly elevated (15-25kts) SW winds persisting through early tomorrow
morning. Conditions to improve back to VFR tomorrow afternoon. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 432 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/...

SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...
Persistence forecasting has driven the forecast in the short term
as not much change in the weather pattern is expected over the
next couple of days (or even for the next week for that matter).
Temperatures will continue to run 10 to 15 degrees above normal
with high temperatures in the low 80s and low temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s.

Light, moist onshore flow will lead to the continuation of the fog
threat near the coast and over the Bays and near shore waters. A
Dense Fog advisory continues through 10am when daytime heating
should help bring lift some of the fog, although the advisory may
need to be extended over the near shore waters. But, the fog is
again expected to return tonight and be a repeat tomorrow.

No chance of precipitation is expected today or tonight, but there
might be some isolated showers across the northern counties on
Friday as a boundary approaches the area. The front is not expected
to reach our region as it stalls and retreats near I20 on Friday.
Right now there is a better chance of seeing no precipitation than
seeing anything. However, do keep a mention of a slight chance of
showers in Houston County and the surrounding areas tomorrow
afternoon just in case that front decides to dig a bit further
south.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 67 80 68 82 / 0 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 81 67 79 68 81 / 0 10 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 66 71 67 72 / 0 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Re: March 2020

Post by tireman4 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:25 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 131143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR to MVFR CIGs will continue through the next few hours before
lifting to VFR conditions around noon with a light to moderate
southeasterly flow expected. GLS may see some patchy fog bringing
visibility down to 4 to 6 miles for the next few hours as well.
The MVFR CIGs return tonight after sunset.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 339 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...

Continuing with the persistence forecast through the short term
period with warm, moist onshore flow expected. Temperatures as of
3am this morning were around 70 degrees across the area, and am not
expecting much of a cool down through the rest of the morning due to
the overcast skies. These temperatures would be considered normal,
if we were in late May. But, since we are in mid March, these
temperatures are about 15 degrees above normal. And don`t expect any
major changes to the expected high temperature today with much of
the area getting into the low to even mid 80s. Then a repeat is
expected tonight and tomorrow as the onshore flow continues.

A frontal boundary to the north will stall before reaching our
region today and remain in place through the day tomorrow before
retreating back northward. There is a slight chance of a shower
reaching down into our northern counties this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon.

Patchy sea fog and fog along the coast will still be possible
tonight and tomorrow night, but the fog is looking to be much more
patchier and less dense (maybe 2 to 4 mile visibilities) as the
previous few nights.

Fowler


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Some model differences are evident in the first half of the long
term as the NAM continues to insist on bringing a cold front off
the coast. Don`t want to to discount the NAM completely as it has
done well with cool shallow air masses in the past.That said,
have gone with the consensus which keeps the front north of the
area. If the front does it make through, high temperatures will be
10-15 degrees cooler than currently forecast. A strong upper
level ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico will gradually weaken
through the weekend with 500 mb heights falling from 588 dM to 584
dM by Tuesday. An upper level low will remain anchored near CA
and the upper flow between the low and high will remain out of the
southwest. This will allow a series of upper level disturbances
embedded in the flow to move across TX. Although the upper high
weakens, it still looks close enough to the area to shunt the
higher rain chances toward Central and Northeast Texas. A
stronger short wave will move across the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday so higher rain chances may be warranted at that time.
The upper level high over the Gulf shifts slightly west on
Thursday so the area will begin to dry a bit from the east.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for much of the
extended period with the exception on Sunday depending on the
frontal position.

Late Thursday night into Friday, the upper low over CA pushes
toward the Central Plains. A surface low will develop over the
Central Plains on Friday and move toward the Great Lakes and this
will drag a cold front into the area next Friday night. The front
will bring higher rain chances to most of SE TX and a cool down
for next weekend. 43

&&

.Marine...

Persistent onshore flow is expected through the next several days
with no chance of precipitation. The winds in the offshore waters
may approach caution criteria tonight for a few hours, but that
will be the only wind concern through the next week.

Sea fog remains possible through the next couple of days, but will
not be as prevalent as the past few days. Sea temperatures are
warming, so the chance that the fog forms or becomes dense is
decreasing.

Fowler

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 82 68 82 66 78 / 10 20 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 83 68 81 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 73 67 72 67 71 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

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Re: March 2020

Post by jasons2k » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am

A few days ago, they had a 40% chance of rain for tomorrow (Saturday). That is now gone. Lowered rain chances for Sun-Mon too.

There are some 40% chances next week. I wonder if those will go up or down? I haven’t ran the numbers yet but I’m sure I’m several inches below normal rainfall for 2020 thus far.

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Re: March 2020

Post by BlueJay » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:11 am

I think we need a heavy rain to wash away at least some of the pollen. That may help with allergy season.

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Re: March 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:31 am

jasons2k wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:59 am
A few days ago, they had a 40% chance of rain for tomorrow (Saturday). That is now gone. Lowered rain chances for Sun-Mon too.

There are some 40% chances next week. I wonder if those will go up or down? I haven’t ran the numbers yet but I’m sure I’m several inches below normal rainfall for 2020 thus far.
Yeah it sucks. All the rain looks to be staying well north of us just like it has been for the past several weeks.

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Re: March 2020

Post by Ptarmigan » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:30 am

It has been dry.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX

Blame it on COVID-19. Just saying.

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Re: March 2020

Post by unome » Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:05 am

what I wouldn't give for a nice thunderstorm today, choking on pollen here https://www.pollen.com/ :(

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog affecting most of the TAF sites this morning with GLS seeing the worst fog due to its proximity to the coast. This fog will lift out of the inland sites later this morning, but GLS could be dealing with at least 4 to 6 mile visibilities all day. CIGs this morning around generally around 500 to 1000 feet, and these will rise through the day and even scatter out for most of the sites but CLL and UTS. This is because of a near stationary front that has pushed into the Brazos Valley this morning continuing to bring lower clouds through the day. There will be a chance of some scattered showers of forming this afternoon for these northern TAF sites. Winds north of this boundary will be out of the north (CLL and maybe UTS), then south of this front will be southeasterly (all other sites).

CIGS dip back down to around 1000 feet tonight along with a return of the patchy fog.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...

Well, not much is going to be changing in this discussion that you haven`t read already the past few days. Mostly cloudy skies with patchy dense fog near the coast will persist through the short term period as onshore flow continues. Temperatures over the next few days will continue to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Yesterday, Houston/Hobby saw a record high minimum temperature of 71 degrees, which is actually the normal high for this time of year. The City of Houston also saw a record high minimum temperature yesterday Galveston and College Station missing it by a few degrees.

That front that has been just to the north the past few days finally sags a bit further south entering our northern counties. It looks to stall again somewhere between College Station and Huntsville before lifting back north. The HRRR and TT-WRF are showing some light rain showers popping up along this boundary, but keeping the coverage mainly near Brazos Valley area. These showers, if they form, will be scattered and light in nature, and then dissipate this evening. With the frontal boundary back to the north on Monday, precipitation chances decrease for our area on Monday.

Fowler


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

On Tuesday, the center of the upper ridge will be over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low will be approaching southern CA and the flow aloft over TX will remain out of the southwest. A series of weak upper level disturbances embedded in the SW upper flow will bring a few showers to SE TX during the day. Cloud cover and slightly cooler 850 temps should lead to slightly cooler daytime high temperatures, mainly in the upper 70`s. The upper ridge strengthens and will slowly expand westward on Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, it looks like most of the upper level disturbances will be west of the region so think rain chances on Wednesday look rather low with maybe a subtle increase in PoPs for Thursday as a stronger short wave moves into Central Texas. Both days look unseasonably warm with warming temperatures at 850 mb and sfc temperatures should reach the lower and middle 80`s. The upper low currently over CA will move toward the central plains on Thursday and sfc low pressure will develop over western KS. The sfc low will move east Thursday night and drag a cold front into the state on Friday and crossing SE TX Friday night. Some timing differences between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF and split the timing for now. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the front but higher rain chances will be possible on Saturday in the wake of the front due to isentropic upglide behind the front. The ECMWF has much better jet dynamics for Saturday showing a nice split in the jet while the GFS keeps the jet dynamics weak. Have leaned a bit toward the ECMWF but models have been bullish with PoPs in the extended forecast only for systems to fizzle out before producing much rain over the forecast area. 43

&&

.Marine...

Not much change in the weather through the rest of the week. Light to moderate onshore flow with patchy sea fog near the coast possible each day. By late Wednesday or Thursday, winds increase as the gradient tightens leading to caution flag criteria or even advisory levels.

Fowler

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