March 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:14 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:38 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:21 pm

That is insane! Do you have a pool? We did at our old house and I think our bill topped-out at $350. We don’t have a pool yet in this house but it’s over 4,000 sq. ft., with two A/C units and two refrigerators and our most expensive electric bill last summer was $310. The last three months have been between $50-$60. It does have double-paned, gas filled windows and lots of insulation though.

Haha. You get clouds....sometimes some rain ;) It's 100°F+ here, no rain, sun mercilessly beating down every day. Lots of watering - our deep well aquifer water is full of sodium, so it's alkaline. It takes lots of iron and fertilizer to keep things alive. Takes a 10 ton A/C to cool 2450 sq ft with double pane windows. The original builder put in an R22 unit (daglbast him). It's $10-15K for an energy efficient Trane replacement. Some day. But there's still the watering thing.

Oh, and College Station won't let us co-op and charges a premium.

Give me that gas heating!
Screw all that. That’s ridiculous paying that.
Yeah - that's the July bill. We try to get out of town for a week+ in August to kick the bill down. A lot of people here live in Brian just to pay a reduced utility bill. May and June are in the $300-400s.

Some people shut off the sprinklers - but then not only are you down to Buffalo gras, but tries start dying, especially those that barely made the summer of 2011.

If I refi and take enough cash out, I might replace the A/C...but my wife wants new flooring first!
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Katdaddy
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A beautiful VIS satellite image across SE TX this evening as an active pattern continues onward through the upcoming week. Lots of streaming cirrus.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF issuance]...
Latest satellite imagery shows low stratus decks across the region
this morning, with most terminals reporting BKN to OVC MVFR decks
as of 12Z. Cigs are expected to lift to VFR by the mid to late
morning hours, after which south winds should pick up to around 10
knots. As a shortwave trough passes to our north this afternoon,
expect periods of scattered showers to impact metro and northern
terminals until around sunset. Have included VCSH language at all
sites as the timing and location of any developing showers remains
uncertain. Conditions look favorable to the development of fog
this evening, and reduced visibilities appear in store at all
terminals by tomorrow morning. Cigs should concurrently drop to
MVFR to IFR levels by early tomorrow morning.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Today will be the first day of an extended period characterized by
unseasonably warm temperatures, mostly cloudy to overcast skies,
elevated dew points, and the development of marine fog. Onshore
winds have developed overnight across SE Texas in the wake of a
departing surface high, which will bring an apple supply of warm and
moist Gulf air to the region. Highs this afternoon will rise into
the mid 70s at most locations, with cloud cover increasing further.
Scattered showers are expected throughout the day as a shortwave
trough axis passes to our north, with the greatest development
expected to occur around and north of the Houston metro area. With
widespread overcast conditions in place this evening to inhibit
radiative cooling, tonight`s low temperatures in the low to mid 60s
will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal for early March.

Conditions will be favorable for the development of marine fog this
evening. With south winds providing a long southerly fetch, elevated
dew points, and water temperatures in the mid 60s, fog development
across the bays and coastal waters should begin in the overnight
hours this evening. This development may extend further inland by
the morning, with the entirety of the CWA potentially seeing at
least patchy fog.

Further shower activity associated with the eastward advancing
shortwave is expected across SE Texas on Tuesday, with a few
isolated thunderstorms possible. Temperatures will continue to rise
to unseasonably warm levels with many locations reaching the mid
80s, with overcast skies and favorable marine fog conditions
remaining in place.

Cady

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Tuesday evening expect sea fog to spread inland as well as with
radiation fog to develop over the inland areas hampered by cloud
cover. Dense fog advisories will probably be needed. Upper
ridging building over the state with light southerly flow
overnight and Wednesday. Temperatures steadily rising through
Saturday with well above normal readings but shy of
records...still plenty warm and humid. Wednesday should be rain
free and fog could well linger into the late morning hours.
Thursday has a slight chance of showers. Thursday night cold
front should be sagging down into the northern portions of the
state and rain chances edging upwards over the northern half of
the area. Cloud cover should be relatively abundant with the
continued sea fog threat as dewpoints continue to creep up. 00z
GFS made some big changes and given the upper level pattern these
changes looks suspect so have favored an NBM/ECMWF blend (heavier
on the ECMWF) this keeps the greater rain chances over the
northern counties and probably rain free at the coast Friday
(still foggy) front creeps southward and again rain chances mainly
north on Saturday and then finally the cold front arrives early
Sunday. Models differ greatly and confidence isn`t stellar in the
ECMWF and certainly not the 00z GFS. This weekend could be a
cloudy wet one.
45

MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow will continue well into the week, and as a
result conditions will remain favorable for the development of
marine fog for an extended period of time. Winds overnight tonight
have shifted further south, with wind speeds expected to diminish by
the afternoon hours. With these lighter winds and both water
temperatures and dew points in the mid 60s, sea fog development is
likely beginning this evening and persisting over the following
several days. While wind speeds and seas are not expected to
approach caution or advisory levels in the immediate term, mariners
should remain vigilant of potentially poor visibility conditions
over the next several days.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 62 81 63 83 / 30 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 75 63 79 64 81 / 30 20 30 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 64 71 64 70 / 20 20 20 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
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The GFS model has a fairly strong wet signal, but it’s 10+ days out.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091812
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
112 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

With the wide swath of mostly light rain moving across the CWA
this afternoon CIGS will continue to fluctuate between VFR and
MVFR. As the shortwave responsible for this activity moves off
to the E/NE, we should see improved conditions briefly by this
evening. Light winds/increasing low-level moisture will all be
favorable for the development of patchy fog overnight into Tue
morning. Did keep with mostly MVFR (to occasionally IFR) CIGS/
VIS for this time frame. Will also have to keep a close eye on
GLS, where sea fog development is likely this evening and cap-
able of persisting there through much of the week. 41

&&
Cpv17
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The GFS and Euro are both keeping the heavier rains north of SETX over the next couple weeks. Looks like a major washout for the northern half of the state into Oklahoma and Arkansas. For whatever reason the rain has had a real hard time making it very far south lately. Don’t exactly know what it is. Jet stream configuration, I guess?
CrashTestDummy
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
HUH?!?
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 101525
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020

.UPDATE...

With visibilities increasing over inland areas, did let the Dense
Fog Advisory expire as planned for these locations. However, this
does not appear to be the case for the bays/nearshore waters. Sea
fog appears to be sticking around a bit longer, and have extended
the Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 2PM. The lowered visibilities
could be improving sooner given the possible development of wide-
ly scattered showers (and perhaps isolated thunderstorms) by noon
or so as the next shortwave moves in from the west. Current traj-
ectory of this disturbance does seem to keep the best POPs closer
to the coast for this afternoon. Current grids have this covered,
and not planning on any other major changes at this time. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Afternoon]...
Upper level ridging will try to expand into the area from the
southern Gulf but a weak short wave riding over the top of the ridge
will keep skies generally cloudy today. The short wave coupled with
favorable jet dynamics will bring a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area later this morning into the afternoon.
Fcst soundings show a semi-saturated looking profile with little to
no capping between 15-21z. Will go with chance PoPs for now but
these might be a tad conservative. 850 temps and a warm start to the
day should allow temperatures to warm to around 80 degrees this
afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of the short wave will allow skies
to clear briefly this evening but cirrus will return by mid evening
with lower clouds developing overnight. The clouds will help
insulate so overnight lows will remain warmer than normal and only
fall into the low/mid 60`s. Some potential for fog especially near
the coast but water temps are warming so the T-Td differential not
quite as conducive for sea fog. At this time, not seeing another
disturbance for Wednesday so will keep it dry. 850 temps look
similar to today but a bit more sunshine will help to boost temps
into the lower 80`s. 43

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Next Tuesday]...
Warm and relatively humid conditions remain in store across SE
Texas through the remainder of the week as an area of surface high
pressure to our east promotes a south to southeasterly flow
pattern. As a result daytime highs should reach around 5 to 10
degrees above climatological normals across much of the area, with
inland locations reaching the upper 70s to low 80s and coastal
locations staying in the lower 70s. Furthermore, late spring-like
dew points in the mid 60s will persist heading into the weekend as
these southerly winds continue to supply the area with Gulf
moisture. Global guidance (NAM, ECMWF, GFS) indicates a rise in
PWAT levels across the CWA to around 1.5 inches by Thursday
afternoon, which would fall comfortably into the upper decile of
previously observed values at nearby sites in early March per
SPC`s sounding climatology tool. Marine fog will continue to be an
issue with this pattern holding in place, with SREF probabilistic
guidance remaining in favor of fog development between Wednesday
night and Friday. Have included fog across the bays and nearshore
waters in the forecast, but this may need to be further refined
to include inland areas as we get closer to the event.

A slow-moving frontal boundary approaches the northern counties
on Friday, which will bring the next chance of precipitation to
the region. While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact
timing of the frontal passage as it looks to potentially stall out
before pushing towards the coast, a wet weekend characterized by
scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms should be in
store for most locations. Warm and muggy conditions with scattered
showers appear in store heading into the early part of next week
with the prevailing onshore flow pattern looking to remain in
place.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 63 82 66 82 / 20 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 63 81 64 81 / 40 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 63 71 65 72 / 20 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$
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MontgomeryCoWx
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CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
HUH?!?
Oil was down 30% and a lot of small publics and leveraged independents are going under.
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:52 pm
CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
HUH?!?
Oil was down 30% and a lot of small publics and leveraged independents are going under.
All this from a virus. Unfortunately, the economic impacts are just beginning. It’s going to be tough for the next several months.
unome
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:54 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:52 pm
CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am

HUH?!?
Oil was down 30% and a lot of small publics and leveraged independents are going under.
All this from a virus. Unfortunately, the economic impacts are just beginning. It’s going to be tough for the next several months.
most definitely just beginning, rock the energy sector & watch the supporting/supported jobs fall as well. HCAD will probably get a lot of protests on valuation this year. Re covid-19, wondering if all the NHC & weather conferences, community outreach will go on as planned? How about continuing the rodeo thru Mar 22nd?
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jasons2k
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I don’t know. Things are changing quickly. National Guard deployed in New York and one of the suburbs of NYC is getting sealed off, essentially.

We’re supposed to go to Disney World in June. Unfortunately that’s looking iffy. All we can do is monitor and see how it goes over the next couple of months. It’s like watching a slow-moving train wreck.

In other news - the weather - it sure is heating up now. It’s like the switch was flipped to Spring and here we are.
Cpv17
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People are overreacting like crazy over the virus. You can thank the media for it. They’re just looking for headliners to get a rating bump.
unome
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:43 pmIn other news - the weather - it sure is heating up now. It’s like the switch was flipped to Spring and here we are.
for sure - I had to do the yard in 2 days, between the oak pollen & being 80s today it took me longer than normal. I let the weeding go too long, have a new dog & won't use chemicals to knock them back any more, as he likes to chew on the grass - so a bit more work. Won't be long before I am wishing for cool 80s though !
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GBinGrimes
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:16 pm People are overreacting like crazy over the virus. You can thank the media for it. They’re just looking for headliners to get a rating bump.
This is the biggest farce of all times. Pure media play + politically motivated and stock market shorted to the Nth degree. Come on...a TV copter showing a teacher from ATL being escorted out on a stretcher? Propaganda. It's the flu with a different name.

At the least, a world wide Pandemic test. At the worst...a bad game affecting far too many people and proof that blind sheep will follow anything.

Now...weather...I had to travel north of I 20 today to see sunshine. Down here in SE Texas, the grayness rules. Sorry Mr. Montgomery...give me 98, a partly cloudy sky and a solid chance of afternoon seabreeze showers or T storms. I do love me some bitter cold but the summer beckons. I want to be outside and sweat, then jump in the pool followed by an iced watermelon.
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jasons2k
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GBinGrimes wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:47 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:16 pm People are overreacting like crazy over the virus. You can thank the media for it. They’re just looking for headliners to get a rating bump.
This is the biggest farce of all times. Pure media play + politically motivated and stock market shorted to the Nth degree. Come on...a TV copter showing a teacher from ATL being escorted out on a stretcher? Propaganda. It's the flu with a different name.

At the least, a world wide Pandemic test. At the worst...a bad game affecting far too many people and proof that blind sheep will follow anything.

Now...weather...I had to travel north of I 20 today to see sunshine. Down here in SE Texas, the grayness rules. Sorry Mr. Montgomery...give me 98, a partly cloudy sky and a solid chance of afternoon seabreeze showers or T storms. I do love me some bitter cold but the summer beckons. I want to be outside and sweat, then jump in the pool followed by an iced watermelon.
There is a lot of hype, yes, but I think it’s premature to call this all a farce. The mortality rate for the flu is .1%. The coronavirus mortality rate is about 2% (thus far) and much higher for seniors. Do the math. The potential loss of life is significant if this becomes widespread.

You can also get a flu vaccine. There is no vaccine for this coronavirus. You can’t equate the two. That’s based on science, not hype. The statistics are easily found on the CDC website.

This is nothing to sneeze at (pardon the pun).

Agreed on summer. Although I don’t care for the heat when it’s above 95 and the lows get into the 80’s. When it’s that hot there usually isn’t any rain either (death ridge). I much prefer mid 70’s to low 90’s with a chance of sea breeze storms. Can’t wait until it’s warm enough to jump in the pool too!
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:18 am
GBinGrimes wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:47 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:16 pm People are overreacting like crazy over the virus. You can thank the media for it. They’re just looking for headliners to get a rating bump.
This is the biggest farce of all times. Pure media play + politically motivated and stock market shorted to the Nth degree. Come on...a TV copter showing a teacher from ATL being escorted out on a stretcher? Propaganda. It's the flu with a different name.

At the least, a world wide Pandemic test. At the worst...a bad game affecting far too many people and proof that blind sheep will follow anything.

Now...weather...I had to travel north of I 20 today to see sunshine. Down here in SE Texas, the grayness rules. Sorry Mr. Montgomery...give me 98, a partly cloudy sky and a solid chance of afternoon seabreeze showers or T storms. I do love me some bitter cold but the summer beckons. I want to be outside and sweat, then jump in the pool followed by an iced watermelon.
There is a lot of hype, yes, but I think it’s premature to call this all a farce. The mortality rate for the flu is .1%. The coronavirus mortality rate is about 2% (thus far) and much higher for seniors. Do the math. The potential loss of life is significant if this becomes widespread.

You can also get a flu vaccine. There is no vaccine for this coronavirus. You can’t equate the two. That’s based on science, not hype. The statistics are easily found on the CDC website.

This is nothing to sneeze at (pardon the pun).

Agreed on summer. Although I don’t care for the heat when it’s above 95 and the lows get into the 80’s. When it’s that hot there usually isn’t any rain either (death ridge). I much prefer mid 70’s to low 90’s with a chance of sea breeze storms. Can’t wait until it’s warm enough to jump in the pool too!
Corona virus and the media is going to kill the economy worldwide with the way it’s going.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:45 am
jasons2k wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:18 am
GBinGrimes wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:47 pm

This is the biggest farce of all times. Pure media play + politically motivated and stock market shorted to the Nth degree. Come on...a TV copter showing a teacher from ATL being escorted out on a stretcher? Propaganda. It's the flu with a different name.

At the least, a world wide Pandemic test. At the worst...a bad game affecting far too many people and proof that blind sheep will follow anything.

Now...weather...I had to travel north of I 20 today to see sunshine. Down here in SE Texas, the grayness rules. Sorry Mr. Montgomery...give me 98, a partly cloudy sky and a solid chance of afternoon seabreeze showers or T storms. I do love me some bitter cold but the summer beckons. I want to be outside and sweat, then jump in the pool followed by an iced watermelon.
There is a lot of hype, yes, but I think it’s premature to call this all a farce. The mortality rate for the flu is .1%. The coronavirus mortality rate is about 2% (thus far) and much higher for seniors. Do the math. The potential loss of life is significant if this becomes widespread.

You can also get a flu vaccine. There is no vaccine for this coronavirus. You can’t equate the two. That’s based on science, not hype. The statistics are easily found on the CDC website.

This is nothing to sneeze at (pardon the pun).

Agreed on summer. Although I don’t care for the heat when it’s above 95 and the lows get into the 80’s. When it’s that hot there usually isn’t any rain either (death ridge). I much prefer mid 70’s to low 90’s with a chance of sea breeze storms. Can’t wait until it’s warm enough to jump in the pool too!
Corona virus and the media is going to kill the economy worldwide with the way it’s going.
Unfortunately, you are right about this. I predicted this back in January. Texted my friends and family back on Jamuary 27 that this may cost Trump the election, a full month to the day before Goldman-Sachs issued an analysis saying the same thing. They should hire my to be an analyst ;)

The Rodeo has been cancelled. Montgomery ISD cancelling classes now too.
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jasons2k
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Sorry for the duplicate post. I can't delete it - maybe the Mods can.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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