March 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Today is a beautiful. Wish I could bottle this up and serve it every day.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:53 am
JDsGN wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:09 pm I understand the weather Apps and local weathermen go off of the models and they update per run but how is there a continual 70-80% chance for so many hours all last night and today and yet as soon as i woke up this morning you could see if was a thin line that would pass by in 15 minutes. It seems like this has been the case for all of 2020 so far and much of the previous years. What are the forecasters seeing to warrant the high chances? A good inch or soaking rain would be pretty beneficial for most of the area.
Did you get measurable precipitation? If you did, the forecast was correct. Higher rain chances equate to higher chances of seeing measurable precipitation — not necessarily higher rainfall totals.

And 80% still does not mean they are certain you will get anything at all. If that were the case, rain chances would have been 100%.

Yep, this bugs me when someone complains yet got a brief downpour. Forecast was right yet perception from Joe Blow says it was wrong.
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JDsGN
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:53 am
JDsGN wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:09 pm I understand the weather Apps and local weathermen go off of the models and they update per run but how is there a continual 70-80% chance for so many hours all last night and today and yet as soon as i woke up this morning you could see if was a thin line that would pass by in 15 minutes. It seems like this has been the case for all of 2020 so far and much of the previous years. What are the forecasters seeing to warrant the high chances? A good inch or soaking rain would be pretty beneficial for most of the area.
Did you get measurable precipitation? If you did, the forecast was correct. Higher rain chances equate to higher chances of seeing measurable precipitation — not necessarily higher rainfall totals.

And 80% still does not mean they are certain you will get anything at all. If that were the case, rain chances would have been 100%.
I’m well aware of what the chance means... it was showing 80% from midnight on through the entire morning yet radar showed nothing within 70+ miles and well off to the north. And no at my house it was enough to make water pollen drops on the cars but did not move the rain gauge. I watched model runs that didn’t show rain until that band came through around noon which seemed accurate yet the forecast hour by hour on multiple weather forecast showed a high chances of rain for hours when almost anybody could look at the radar and see it wasnt.
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tireman4
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XUS64 KHGX 061132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF issuance]...
No major concerns through the TAF period once again as conditions
look to remain within VFR thresholds at all terminals. Expect some
gusty winds of up to around 20 knots this morning as a weak cold
front traverses SE Texas. Winds will shift to the northwest
heading into this afternoon following the passage of the boundary,
and will again become light and variable this evening.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Afternoon]...
Dry, clear, and relatively benign weather remains in store for SE
Texas in the immediate term with upper ridging continuing to hold
over the central CONUS. The passage of a weak cold front this
morning will provide a slight increase to surface wind speeds across
most areas this morning, with winds diminishing and shifting to the
northeast by the afternoon. Highs this afternoon look to reach
around 70 across the Houston metro, while the northern and coastal
zones should reach the upper 60s. Relative humidity will remain low
with offshore winds continuing to bring drier air into the area.
With little to no cloud cover to inhibit radiative cooling tonight,
expect lows to once again drop into the 40s inland and low to mid
50s along the coast. A shift to east winds on Saturday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east will result in a rise moisture
and increasing cloudiness. Look for slightly lower afternoon highs
in the low to mid 60s as a result.

Cady

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...
Saturday night the Nor`easter pulls away as strengthening high
pressure builds into the eastern states and extends down into E
TX. Subtropical jet will be active through the period bringing
high level moisture and a series of s/w streaming through SETX
periodically. Temperatures will be on an uphill trend through the
period with increasingly warm overnight lows and abundant cloud
cover with afternoon temperatures frequently near 70 Sunday rising
into the upper 70s Tuesday and hovering around the 78-81 degree
mark through Friday...well above normal for this time of year but
not into record territory. A shortwave on Monday could bring some
showers to the area more favorable over the northern counties but
a strong cap will start off the day and may have trouble eroding
over the south so have limited POPs to 35 or less over the
southern half of the area. Areas from Huntsville have a decent
chance of either breaking the cap or at least getting scattered
showers. Low level moisture remains after the s/w passage and may
be getting into some patchy sea fog Tuesday afternoon/night
potentially the threat continues until the cold front arrives
Friday. Rain chances looks slim on Tuesday and Wednesday as
weakening (difficult to time/estimate) s/w traverse the region.
Upper ridge builds in Thursday and limits rain chances greatly
over the southern half of the area though the north still has a
chance for some showers. Friday looks to be greater chance for
widespread rainfall in the form of showers and thunderstorms as
vigorous upper level trough sweeps eastward through the state.
Rainfall amounts should be a good deal more generous across SETX
and probably a threat of strong/severe storms. Of course this is a
day 7-8 forecast and is subject to change.
45

FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry across the area today with the reinforcing shot of
cool and dry air. RH dips into the 20-25 degree range over much of
the area to 30-35 percent near the coast. Winds though should be
northeasterly and closer to 8-12 mph range...stronger near the
coast. Winds relax tonight and become more easterly on Saturday
with RH values edging up.
45

MARINE...

Some gusty winds are expected across the Gulf waters this morning as
a weak cold front traverses the area. As a result, have posted
caution flags for the bays and advisories for the nearshore and
offshore waters through the remainder of the morning. Winds look to
diminish by the afternoon as eastward moving surface high pressure
will gradually shift flow to the northeast. A further shift to
onshore winds is expected by the end of the weekend as the surface
high exits the area. Some scattered showers are possible on Sunday
night and Monday as an upper-level disturbance approaches the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 43 63 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 45 64 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 54 61 57 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
Cpv17
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According to the latest CPC forecast, we won’t be getting much rain for the remainder of the month. Drought conditions will definitely be setting in for a lot of us if that verifies. We’re already in a severe drought down here in Wharton County.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:32 pm According to the latest CPC forecast, we won’t be getting much rain for the remainder of the month. Drought conditions will definitely be setting in for a lot of us if that verifies. We’re already in a severe drought down here in Wharton County.
Yeah, a nice string of Chamber of Commerce days. We're a little of soggy, but as things heat and dry up there will be a need for more rain. GFS and Canadian are 180° out of phase in precip solutions. GFS brings through 2-3 systems before late September. The Ensemble splits the difference.

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Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Just a brief PSA related to the corona/COVD-19/SARS-CoV2 virus preparedness...passing on information from a contact in the Omaha National Quarantine Center.

Of interest to all, particularly if you have loved ones at risk: co-morbidities - particularly respiratory, cardiovascular, over 70, compromised immune system, disabled, etc.

- there are 2 known cases now in Harris County

- the virus is no longer expected to be containable (my contact and multiple experts in infectious disease epidemiology)

- because of limited testing in the US, those actually infected are orders of magnitude greater than reported

- most people don't have severe symptoms, or any at all (especially young)

- however, SARS-CoV2 is highly contagious (2-3X more than the flu), long incubation period (14 days)

- High risk of asymptomatic carriers.

- transmission through direct contact - germ to hands, hands to surface, droplets from cough, sneeze

- There will be great health care and overall infrastructure stressors


Given all the above, prepare at a level of a CAT4 hurricane.

The expected severity/intensity cone (without sharpie) for morbidity/disruption/quarantine is between the 1918 Spanish flu and 1958 Asian flu

- Have 2 weeks worth of non-perishables, water - possible quarantines

- Renew all prescriptions

- Prepare for extended closures (including schools, possibly universities). SXSW was canceled today.

- Wash hands frequently (20 sec with soap, water) as needed during day - after being out. hand sanitizers on wipes to disinfect surfaces.

- Limit travel. I'm heading out of town for 2 days on Sunday, then back Texas to hunker down.

- As always, Texans help Texans prepare...even if that means waving to your neighbor.


Fingers crossed we get lucky. Nothing is guaranteed, either way...ergo the hurricane preparedness mindset.
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srainhoutx
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:26 pm Today is a beautiful. Wish I could bottle this up and serve it every day.
Congratulations Jason. It's 30 and snowing across the Smokey Mountains tonight...lol. My Mom said she is running the A/C in Deer Park this evening.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:12 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:32 pm According to the latest CPC forecast, we won’t be getting much rain for the remainder of the month. Drought conditions will definitely be setting in for a lot of us if that verifies. We’re already in a severe drought down here in Wharton County.
Yeah, a nice string of Chamber of Commerce days. We're a little of soggy, but as things heat and dry up there will be a need for more rain. GFS and Canadian are 180° out of phase in precep solutions. GFS brings through 2-3 systems before late September. The Ensemble splits the difference.

Image

Image

Image
Looks to me like severe weather season is really about to start cranking up for areas to our north and east.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:39 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:26 pm Today is a beautiful. Wish I could bottle this up and serve it every day.
Congratulations Jason. It's 30 and snowing across the Smokey Mountains tonight...lol. My Mom said she is running the A/C in Deer Park this evening.
Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
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