March 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:39 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:26 pm Today is a beautiful. Wish I could bottle this up and serve it every day.
Congratulations Jason. It's 30 and snowing across the Smokey Mountains tonight...lol. My Mom said she is running the A/C in Deer Park this evening.
Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
I hope you have a safe trip and enjoy your time up there. Sounds beautiful!

I am glad Spring seems to be here for real this time. Time for me to get out and get some much-needed yard work done.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:24 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:39 pm
Congratulations Jason. It's 30 and snowing across the Smokey Mountains tonight...lol. My Mom said she is running the A/C in Deer Park this evening.
Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
I hope you have a safe trip and enjoy your time up there. Sounds beautiful!

I am glad Spring seems to be here for real this time. Time for me to get out and get some much-needed yard work done.

Thank you. It’s my favorite place to be no matter the time of year.

Yes, Spring is here in regards to our daily highs. Only a matter of time before I move indoors with my runs and bike outings.

I got my yard work done when we had a north wind And 70 degrees the other day. It was nice.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:39 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:26 pm Today is a beautiful. Wish I could bottle this up and serve it every day.
Congratulations Jason. It's 30 and snowing across the Smokey Mountains tonight...lol. My Mom said she is running the A/C in Deer Park this evening.
Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
haha. That reminds me.

I paid my Atmos Natural Gas bill yesterday: $62 to heat the home, water heater, gas stove.

In the summertime here, the electric bill soars to over $620.


That's why I like winter in Texas!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:06 am
jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:24 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am

Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
I hope you have a safe trip and enjoy your time up there. Sounds beautiful!

I am glad Spring seems to be here for real this time. Time for me to get out and get some much-needed yard work done.

Thank you. It’s my favorite place to be no matter the time of year.

Yes, Spring is here in regards to our daily highs. Only a matter of time before I move indoors with my runs and bike outings.

I got my yard work done when we had a north wind And 70 degrees the other day. It was nice.
Despite rounds of pre-emergence herbicide, because of our fake winter this year, I've been doing yardwork for a month - mowing, pulling weeds, squirting weeds.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

18z GFS has a monster system for basically the whole state of Texas, but it’s like 12 days out. Doubt it verifies or even comes close to it.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:09 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am
srainhoutx wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:39 pm
Congratulations Jason. It's 30 and snowing across the Smokey Mountains tonight...lol. My Mom said she is running the A/C in Deer Park this evening.
Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
haha. That reminds me.

I paid my Atmos Natural Gas bill yesterday: $62 to heat the home, water heater, gas stove.

In the summertime here, the electric bill soars to over $620.

That's why I like winter in Texas!
That is insane! Do you have a pool? We did at our old house and I think our bill topped-out at $350. We don’t have a pool yet in this house but it’s over 4,000 sq. ft., with two A/C units and two refrigerators and our most expensive electric bill last summer was $310. The last three months have been between $50-$60. It does have double-paned, gas filled windows and lots of insulation though.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:21 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:09 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am

Haha, you are in my parents old stomping grounds. I love the weather year around out there!

80s next week in Texas. No thanks, I’m headed to the more beautiful, pristine setting of SW Montana!
haha. That reminds me.

I paid my Atmos Natural Gas bill yesterday: $62 to heat the home, water heater, gas stove.

In the summertime here, the electric bill soars to over $620.

That's why I like winter in Texas!
That is insane! Do you have a pool? We did at our old house and I think our bill topped-out at $350. We don’t have a pool yet in this house but it’s over 4,000 sq. ft., with two A/C units and two refrigerators and our most expensive electric bill last summer was $310. The last three months have been between $50-$60. It does have double-paned, gas filled windows and lots of insulation though.

Haha. You get clouds....sometimes some rain ;) It's 100°F+ here, no rain, sun mercilessly beating down every day. Lots of watering - our deep well aquifer water is full of sodium, so it's alkaline. It takes lots of iron and fertilizer to keep things alive. Takes a 10 ton A/C to cool 2450 sq ft with double pane windows. The original builder put in an R22 unit (daglbast him). It's $10-15K for an energy efficient Trane replacement. Some day. But there's still the watering thing.

Oh, and College Station won't let us co-op and charges a premium.

Give me that gas heating!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

That reminds me - in Florida or North Carolina it rained every other day in the summer. Lots of afternoon clouds to block sunlight.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I miss Florida summers, especially on the west coast where we got a late afternoon or evening thunderstorm almost every day. Miss the winters too - convertible weather for three months. We tried to move back there a couple of years ago, but it just didn’t work out. Probably for the best because the schools are pretty iffy. Maybe when the kids are done with school, we will make another go at it. We definitely plan to retire there someday, if the beaches aren’t all under water by then.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:38 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:21 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:09 am

haha. That reminds me.

I paid my Atmos Natural Gas bill yesterday: $62 to heat the home, water heater, gas stove.

In the summertime here, the electric bill soars to over $620.

That's why I like winter in Texas!
That is insane! Do you have a pool? We did at our old house and I think our bill topped-out at $350. We don’t have a pool yet in this house but it’s over 4,000 sq. ft., with two A/C units and two refrigerators and our most expensive electric bill last summer was $310. The last three months have been between $50-$60. It does have double-paned, gas filled windows and lots of insulation though.

Haha. You get clouds....sometimes some rain ;) It's 100°F+ here, no rain, sun mercilessly beating down every day. Lots of watering - our deep well aquifer water is full of sodium, so it's alkaline. It takes lots of iron and fertilizer to keep things alive. Takes a 10 ton A/C to cool 2450 sq ft with double pane windows. The original builder put in an R22 unit (daglbast him). It's $10-15K for an energy efficient Trane replacement. Some day. But there's still the watering thing.

Oh, and College Station won't let us co-op and charges a premium.

Give me that gas heating!
Screw all that. That’s ridiculous paying that.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:14 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:38 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:21 pm

That is insane! Do you have a pool? We did at our old house and I think our bill topped-out at $350. We don’t have a pool yet in this house but it’s over 4,000 sq. ft., with two A/C units and two refrigerators and our most expensive electric bill last summer was $310. The last three months have been between $50-$60. It does have double-paned, gas filled windows and lots of insulation though.

Haha. You get clouds....sometimes some rain ;) It's 100°F+ here, no rain, sun mercilessly beating down every day. Lots of watering - our deep well aquifer water is full of sodium, so it's alkaline. It takes lots of iron and fertilizer to keep things alive. Takes a 10 ton A/C to cool 2450 sq ft with double pane windows. The original builder put in an R22 unit (daglbast him). It's $10-15K for an energy efficient Trane replacement. Some day. But there's still the watering thing.

Oh, and College Station won't let us co-op and charges a premium.

Give me that gas heating!
Screw all that. That’s ridiculous paying that.
Yeah - that's the July bill. We try to get out of town for a week+ in August to kick the bill down. A lot of people here live in Brian just to pay a reduced utility bill. May and June are in the $300-400s.

Some people shut off the sprinklers - but then not only are you down to Buffalo gras, but tries start dying, especially those that barely made the summer of 2011.

If I refi and take enough cash out, I might replace the A/C...but my wife wants new flooring first!
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

A beautiful VIS satellite image across SE TX this evening as an active pattern continues onward through the upcoming week. Lots of streaming cirrus.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2020-03-08 at 6.53.24 PM.png
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF issuance]...
Latest satellite imagery shows low stratus decks across the region
this morning, with most terminals reporting BKN to OVC MVFR decks
as of 12Z. Cigs are expected to lift to VFR by the mid to late
morning hours, after which south winds should pick up to around 10
knots. As a shortwave trough passes to our north this afternoon,
expect periods of scattered showers to impact metro and northern
terminals until around sunset. Have included VCSH language at all
sites as the timing and location of any developing showers remains
uncertain. Conditions look favorable to the development of fog
this evening, and reduced visibilities appear in store at all
terminals by tomorrow morning. Cigs should concurrently drop to
MVFR to IFR levels by early tomorrow morning.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Today will be the first day of an extended period characterized by
unseasonably warm temperatures, mostly cloudy to overcast skies,
elevated dew points, and the development of marine fog. Onshore
winds have developed overnight across SE Texas in the wake of a
departing surface high, which will bring an apple supply of warm and
moist Gulf air to the region. Highs this afternoon will rise into
the mid 70s at most locations, with cloud cover increasing further.
Scattered showers are expected throughout the day as a shortwave
trough axis passes to our north, with the greatest development
expected to occur around and north of the Houston metro area. With
widespread overcast conditions in place this evening to inhibit
radiative cooling, tonight`s low temperatures in the low to mid 60s
will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal for early March.

Conditions will be favorable for the development of marine fog this
evening. With south winds providing a long southerly fetch, elevated
dew points, and water temperatures in the mid 60s, fog development
across the bays and coastal waters should begin in the overnight
hours this evening. This development may extend further inland by
the morning, with the entirety of the CWA potentially seeing at
least patchy fog.

Further shower activity associated with the eastward advancing
shortwave is expected across SE Texas on Tuesday, with a few
isolated thunderstorms possible. Temperatures will continue to rise
to unseasonably warm levels with many locations reaching the mid
80s, with overcast skies and favorable marine fog conditions
remaining in place.

Cady

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Tuesday evening expect sea fog to spread inland as well as with
radiation fog to develop over the inland areas hampered by cloud
cover. Dense fog advisories will probably be needed. Upper
ridging building over the state with light southerly flow
overnight and Wednesday. Temperatures steadily rising through
Saturday with well above normal readings but shy of
records...still plenty warm and humid. Wednesday should be rain
free and fog could well linger into the late morning hours.
Thursday has a slight chance of showers. Thursday night cold
front should be sagging down into the northern portions of the
state and rain chances edging upwards over the northern half of
the area. Cloud cover should be relatively abundant with the
continued sea fog threat as dewpoints continue to creep up. 00z
GFS made some big changes and given the upper level pattern these
changes looks suspect so have favored an NBM/ECMWF blend (heavier
on the ECMWF) this keeps the greater rain chances over the
northern counties and probably rain free at the coast Friday
(still foggy) front creeps southward and again rain chances mainly
north on Saturday and then finally the cold front arrives early
Sunday. Models differ greatly and confidence isn`t stellar in the
ECMWF and certainly not the 00z GFS. This weekend could be a
cloudy wet one.
45

MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow will continue well into the week, and as a
result conditions will remain favorable for the development of
marine fog for an extended period of time. Winds overnight tonight
have shifted further south, with wind speeds expected to diminish by
the afternoon hours. With these lighter winds and both water
temperatures and dew points in the mid 60s, sea fog development is
likely beginning this evening and persisting over the following
several days. While wind speeds and seas are not expected to
approach caution or advisory levels in the immediate term, mariners
should remain vigilant of potentially poor visibility conditions
over the next several days.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 62 81 63 83 / 30 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 75 63 79 64 81 / 30 20 30 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 64 71 64 70 / 20 20 20 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The GFS model has a fairly strong wet signal, but it’s 10+ days out.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091812
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
112 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

With the wide swath of mostly light rain moving across the CWA
this afternoon CIGS will continue to fluctuate between VFR and
MVFR. As the shortwave responsible for this activity moves off
to the E/NE, we should see improved conditions briefly by this
evening. Light winds/increasing low-level moisture will all be
favorable for the development of patchy fog overnight into Tue
morning. Did keep with mostly MVFR (to occasionally IFR) CIGS/
VIS for this time frame. Will also have to keep a close eye on
GLS, where sea fog development is likely this evening and cap-
able of persisting there through much of the week. 41

&&
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The GFS and Euro are both keeping the heavier rains north of SETX over the next couple weeks. Looks like a major washout for the northern half of the state into Oklahoma and Arkansas. For whatever reason the rain has had a real hard time making it very far south lately. Don’t exactly know what it is. Jet stream configuration, I guess?
CrashTestDummy
Posts: 187
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
HUH?!?
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 101525
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020

.UPDATE...

With visibilities increasing over inland areas, did let the Dense
Fog Advisory expire as planned for these locations. However, this
does not appear to be the case for the bays/nearshore waters. Sea
fog appears to be sticking around a bit longer, and have extended
the Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 2PM. The lowered visibilities
could be improving sooner given the possible development of wide-
ly scattered showers (and perhaps isolated thunderstorms) by noon
or so as the next shortwave moves in from the west. Current traj-
ectory of this disturbance does seem to keep the best POPs closer
to the coast for this afternoon. Current grids have this covered,
and not planning on any other major changes at this time. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Afternoon]...
Upper level ridging will try to expand into the area from the
southern Gulf but a weak short wave riding over the top of the ridge
will keep skies generally cloudy today. The short wave coupled with
favorable jet dynamics will bring a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area later this morning into the afternoon.
Fcst soundings show a semi-saturated looking profile with little to
no capping between 15-21z. Will go with chance PoPs for now but
these might be a tad conservative. 850 temps and a warm start to the
day should allow temperatures to warm to around 80 degrees this
afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of the short wave will allow skies
to clear briefly this evening but cirrus will return by mid evening
with lower clouds developing overnight. The clouds will help
insulate so overnight lows will remain warmer than normal and only
fall into the low/mid 60`s. Some potential for fog especially near
the coast but water temps are warming so the T-Td differential not
quite as conducive for sea fog. At this time, not seeing another
disturbance for Wednesday so will keep it dry. 850 temps look
similar to today but a bit more sunshine will help to boost temps
into the lower 80`s. 43

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Next Tuesday]...
Warm and relatively humid conditions remain in store across SE
Texas through the remainder of the week as an area of surface high
pressure to our east promotes a south to southeasterly flow
pattern. As a result daytime highs should reach around 5 to 10
degrees above climatological normals across much of the area, with
inland locations reaching the upper 70s to low 80s and coastal
locations staying in the lower 70s. Furthermore, late spring-like
dew points in the mid 60s will persist heading into the weekend as
these southerly winds continue to supply the area with Gulf
moisture. Global guidance (NAM, ECMWF, GFS) indicates a rise in
PWAT levels across the CWA to around 1.5 inches by Thursday
afternoon, which would fall comfortably into the upper decile of
previously observed values at nearby sites in early March per
SPC`s sounding climatology tool. Marine fog will continue to be an
issue with this pattern holding in place, with SREF probabilistic
guidance remaining in favor of fog development between Wednesday
night and Friday. Have included fog across the bays and nearshore
waters in the forecast, but this may need to be further refined
to include inland areas as we get closer to the event.

A slow-moving frontal boundary approaches the northern counties
on Friday, which will bring the next chance of precipitation to
the region. While some uncertainty remains regarding the exact
timing of the frontal passage as it looks to potentially stall out
before pushing towards the coast, a wet weekend characterized by
scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms should be in
store for most locations. Warm and muggy conditions with scattered
showers appear in store heading into the early part of next week
with the prevailing onshore flow pattern looking to remain in
place.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 63 82 66 82 / 20 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 63 81 64 81 / 40 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 63 71 65 72 / 20 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:26 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am Bloody Monday in Houston. T&P to the energy sector
HUH?!?
Oil was down 30% and a lot of small publics and leveraged independents are going under.
Team #NeverSummer
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 56 guests