March 2020
Well it looks like most of the rain will be north of me again. Really annoying!
There is always a possibility until about Mid-April, but the average date of our last freeze is about March 1st, and I don’t see any arctic outbreaks on the horizon. I’d say chances are slim.
For what it’s worth, this weekend we went to the garden center and bought a bunch of new goodies to plant. Some hardy, and some I know I will need to cover during freezes.
Looks like most of the rain will be north of Houston this week. Probably north of a line from Brenham to Conroe with the way it looks now.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX
we could use some rain, clean off some pollen, feed some vegetation - I say bring it on
we could use some rain, clean off some pollen, feed some vegetation - I say bring it on
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
ALWAYS North of us - sigh
but prayers up for those in Nashville with that nasty tornado....
but prayers up for those in Nashville with that nasty tornado....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6292
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
Have gone ahead and expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to encompass most
of the southern half of the CWA for this morning. Visibilities so far
this morning have been ranging from one quarter to one half mile over
most locations. Conditions inland should be improving by mid/late mor-
ning...but sea fog along the coast will likely be sticking around for
the rest of today (and tonight).
The other forecast issue of note for SE TX looks to be the increasing
rain chances starting tonight through tomorrow. Models remain in good
agreement with the timing of the next upper low as it approaches from
the west. Large scale lifting as the system nears along with abundant
moisture already in place should allow for the widespread development
of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight amd tomorrow. The high-
est rainfall totals will likely be north of Houston proper (generally
along and north of a Brenham to Lake Livingston line) given the broad
divergence aloft and the track of this rather well-defined upper low.
While not officially outlooked for severe weather, SE TX does stay on
its fringes for SPC Days 2 and 3...likely owing to the persistent cap
and limited instability.
As this low moves out to the east Wed night, we should be seeing POPs
decrease as its associated cold front finally moves across the state.
Any lingering wraparound clouds/moisture with this low are progged to
be out of the area by Thurs morning. WPC QPF maps are indicating rain
fall totals averaging from 1 - 2 inches over the northern half of the
CWA (with isolated higher amounts of 3 - 4 inches possible). Over the
southern half of the CWA, rain totals should average from one quarter
to one half inch. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
Dry/quiet weather on tap for Thurs and Fri as the upper ridge builds
in from the west. The return of onshore winds and an increasingly SW
flow aloft is forecast by the weekend. This should allow for warming
temperatures Sat/Sun. As the southern stream jet becomes more active
late in the weekend, increased rain chances are progged to return by
next Mon/Tues. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore flow continues to drag in low level moisture and produce
areas of sea fog (dense at times) along the coast/bays and into the
nearshore waters. Long fetch with seas already running 3-5 feet
should gradually increase as pressures fall over TX this afternoon
through Wednesday afternoon. May be getting into SCEC conditions
this evening and SCA around midnight as seas build to around 7 feet
and further increase Wednesday morning. Cold front associated with
the low should swing east through the waters during the afternoon
Wednesday with increasing offshore flow. Thursday morning the
offshore flow gradient increases and winds may peak near 20 knots
with higher gusts. High pressure rolls eastward through the Southern
Plains and into the MS Valley Friday through Sunday which will turn
winds from the northeast to the east. Stout easterly flow will start
to rebuild the seas late in the weekend and Monday.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
Soupy mess out there with sea fog spreading into the coastal area
TAF sites. VLIFR-LIFR conditions should prevail through 15z then
improve as temperatures warm quickly. Winds should become more
easterly with a frontal boundary sagging down into the area this
morning and draped east to west across the region...by mid afternoon
should be near CXO/UTS. Showers increasing in coverage south of the
frontal boundary this afternoon - VFR. As the system approaches
expect the coverage of showers VCSH to increase across the north
after 00z dropping into IFR/MVFR then prevailing after 06z along
with an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms.
GLS current TAF is more optimistic with MVFR this afternoon through
06z and will likely be taking this down into IFR-LIFR.
45
&&
.CLIMATE...
It was a warm day yesterday and CLL/IAH both tied their record high
minimum temperatures. IAH 66 in 2012 and CLL 68 in 1976.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 63 70 50 68 / 10 90 90 40 0
Houston (IAH) 80 67 77 53 67 / 20 60 70 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 65 72 56 65 / 30 40 40 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern
Liberty...Waller...Wharton.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...99
FXUS64 KHGX 031134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
Have gone ahead and expanded the Dense Fog Advisory to encompass most
of the southern half of the CWA for this morning. Visibilities so far
this morning have been ranging from one quarter to one half mile over
most locations. Conditions inland should be improving by mid/late mor-
ning...but sea fog along the coast will likely be sticking around for
the rest of today (and tonight).
The other forecast issue of note for SE TX looks to be the increasing
rain chances starting tonight through tomorrow. Models remain in good
agreement with the timing of the next upper low as it approaches from
the west. Large scale lifting as the system nears along with abundant
moisture already in place should allow for the widespread development
of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight amd tomorrow. The high-
est rainfall totals will likely be north of Houston proper (generally
along and north of a Brenham to Lake Livingston line) given the broad
divergence aloft and the track of this rather well-defined upper low.
While not officially outlooked for severe weather, SE TX does stay on
its fringes for SPC Days 2 and 3...likely owing to the persistent cap
and limited instability.
As this low moves out to the east Wed night, we should be seeing POPs
decrease as its associated cold front finally moves across the state.
Any lingering wraparound clouds/moisture with this low are progged to
be out of the area by Thurs morning. WPC QPF maps are indicating rain
fall totals averaging from 1 - 2 inches over the northern half of the
CWA (with isolated higher amounts of 3 - 4 inches possible). Over the
southern half of the CWA, rain totals should average from one quarter
to one half inch. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
Dry/quiet weather on tap for Thurs and Fri as the upper ridge builds
in from the west. The return of onshore winds and an increasingly SW
flow aloft is forecast by the weekend. This should allow for warming
temperatures Sat/Sun. As the southern stream jet becomes more active
late in the weekend, increased rain chances are progged to return by
next Mon/Tues. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore flow continues to drag in low level moisture and produce
areas of sea fog (dense at times) along the coast/bays and into the
nearshore waters. Long fetch with seas already running 3-5 feet
should gradually increase as pressures fall over TX this afternoon
through Wednesday afternoon. May be getting into SCEC conditions
this evening and SCA around midnight as seas build to around 7 feet
and further increase Wednesday morning. Cold front associated with
the low should swing east through the waters during the afternoon
Wednesday with increasing offshore flow. Thursday morning the
offshore flow gradient increases and winds may peak near 20 knots
with higher gusts. High pressure rolls eastward through the Southern
Plains and into the MS Valley Friday through Sunday which will turn
winds from the northeast to the east. Stout easterly flow will start
to rebuild the seas late in the weekend and Monday.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
Soupy mess out there with sea fog spreading into the coastal area
TAF sites. VLIFR-LIFR conditions should prevail through 15z then
improve as temperatures warm quickly. Winds should become more
easterly with a frontal boundary sagging down into the area this
morning and draped east to west across the region...by mid afternoon
should be near CXO/UTS. Showers increasing in coverage south of the
frontal boundary this afternoon - VFR. As the system approaches
expect the coverage of showers VCSH to increase across the north
after 00z dropping into IFR/MVFR then prevailing after 06z along
with an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms.
GLS current TAF is more optimistic with MVFR this afternoon through
06z and will likely be taking this down into IFR-LIFR.
45
&&
.CLIMATE...
It was a warm day yesterday and CLL/IAH both tied their record high
minimum temperatures. IAH 66 in 2012 and CLL 68 in 1976.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 63 70 50 68 / 10 90 90 40 0
Houston (IAH) 80 67 77 53 67 / 20 60 70 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 65 72 56 65 / 30 40 40 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Northern Liberty...Southern
Liberty...Waller...Wharton.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...99
It seems like when storm systems come in from the Pacific, most of the rain stays north of us unless the low really digs deep into Mexico and ejects out towards us which is really rare.Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:04 am ALWAYS North of us - sigh
but prayers up for those in Nashville with that nasty tornado....
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6292
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Nineteen people have died across central Tennessee as a result of severe storms and at least one tornado that raked Nashville and the region late Monday and early Tuesday, officials said.
The storms left numerous homes and other buildings in ruins across several counties, and left tens of thousands of people without power and hundreds at least temporarily looking for another place to live.
In Nashville, dozens of buildings were damaged, and more than 150 people have been taken to hospitals because of the storm, city Fire Chief William Swann said.
At Nashville's Germantown area alone, parts of apartment and other multi-story buildings were ripped open, with bricks and pieces of roods and glass strewn about, images from CNN affiliate WTVF show.
"As tragic as this is -- and our hearts are broken -- we are certain that we'll surround these folks and we'll do what is necessary" to recover, Gov. Bill Lee said.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/weather/ ... index.html
The storms left numerous homes and other buildings in ruins across several counties, and left tens of thousands of people without power and hundreds at least temporarily looking for another place to live.
In Nashville, dozens of buildings were damaged, and more than 150 people have been taken to hospitals because of the storm, city Fire Chief William Swann said.
At Nashville's Germantown area alone, parts of apartment and other multi-story buildings were ripped open, with bricks and pieces of roods and glass strewn about, images from CNN affiliate WTVF show.
"As tragic as this is -- and our hearts are broken -- we are certain that we'll surround these folks and we'll do what is necessary" to recover, Gov. Bill Lee said.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/weather/ ... index.html
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2519
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Another warm cloudy morning with fog along the coastal areas. A squall line is moving through Central TX this morning. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across SE TX today especially the N and Central portions of SE TX. Very nice weather arrives tomorrow through Saturday however remain weather aware today.
- Attachments
-
Right now all I'm seeing is a squall line headed for us in about 8 hours. Everything else is WAY up north. Is that what we should expect today?
-
CrashTestDummy
- Posts: 198
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
- Location: Pearland, Texas
- Contact:
From just watching the radar loop, it does look like most of the energy is skating northward. Hopefully that trend continues, but who knows what happens as the squall line approaches the coast?
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6292
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tonight]...
Another foggy and wet start is expected this morning, but activity
may be increasing later this morning as a line of showers/thunder-
storms approaches from the west. The elevated onshore winds should
keep visibilities from falling too much more, and not anticipating
any addition/extension of our current Dense Fog Advisories (as the
sea fog lingers along the coast).
Elevated rain chances should continue across SE TX today given the
large scale lift already in place...which will be further enhanced
by the progged development of a surface low through this afternoon.
While the majority of the activity will likely be along an east-to-
west line across our northern counties, the possibility of strong/
severe storms should exist across the entire CWA (Marginal Risk as
per SPC Day 1 Outlook). However, instability should remain limited
through this afternoon/early evening. We are still looking for the
highest rainfall totals over the northern half of the CWA, with 1-
2 inch averages...one quarter to one half over the southern half.
We should see the bulk of this more organized development move off
to the E/SE this evening...but the slow trek of the upper low will
help to keep wrap-around cloud cover and rain in the forecast into
the overnight hours. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Wednesday]...
Dry/quiet weather on tap for Thurs and Fri as the upper ridge builds
in from the west. The return of onshore winds and an increasingly SW
flow aloft is forecast by the weekend. This should allow for warming
temperatures through the start of next week. As the southern jet be-
comes more active, increased rain chances are progged to return late
Sun...with POPs likely going up Mon/Tues with the passage of a fair-
ly well-defined/fast moving shortwave and an associated cold front.
41
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have backed inland and into Galveston Bay with dense fog in
obs and coastal webcams. As pressures fall over the Hill Country
expect winds near the coast to veer back to the southeast and
strengthen a little which will probably only keep the fog threat
high. As the low moves through SETX expect a cold front to swing
through from west to east and turn winds to the west and northwest
this afternoon into the evening. This should finally end the fog
threat. In the meantime swells will continue with the long fetch and
seas of 5-6 feet should be pretty common through the mid afternoon
hours (SCEC). With the winds swinging around to the W and NW winds
should strengthen and build seas into SCA conditions this evening.
The offshore flow continues as high pressure settles into the state
then slowly slides east with SCA to SCEC conditions on tap through
Friday even with slight lull Thursday. High pressure finally slides
east and easterly onshore flow commences Saturday and gradually
comes around to the southeast Sunday with richer moisture arriving
Monday and Tuesday and could be back into a fog threat again.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VLIFR near the coast to IFR at CXO and MVFR at UTS with fog
across the southern half of the area and areas of dense fog near
the coast. VLIFR-IFR should continue through late morning 15-17z
before gradually improving inland. Rain chances increasing today
with showers the main threat though isolated thunderstorms
certainly possible especially across the north and VCTS or TEMPO
TSRA should be the norm - CLL around 16z and UTS/CXO around 18z.
Showers will probably still be going on across much of the area
from GLS-11R northeastward underneath the lagging upper trough
late this afternoon through midnight. Wrap around MVFR deck will
likely linger into Thursday 18z. 45
&&
.CLIMATE...
Another warm day yesterday with the record high minimum temperature
tied at HOU - 69 degrees previously 1985. At Galveston overnight
temperature only bottomed out at 67 degrees which was 1 degree
warmer than the old record of 66 from 1945. With the front coming
through no records should fall today.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 51 71 47 71 / 100 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 54 72 51 72 / 80 40 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 55 70 55 69 / 60 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Galveston...
Matagorda Islands.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 041127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tonight]...
Another foggy and wet start is expected this morning, but activity
may be increasing later this morning as a line of showers/thunder-
storms approaches from the west. The elevated onshore winds should
keep visibilities from falling too much more, and not anticipating
any addition/extension of our current Dense Fog Advisories (as the
sea fog lingers along the coast).
Elevated rain chances should continue across SE TX today given the
large scale lift already in place...which will be further enhanced
by the progged development of a surface low through this afternoon.
While the majority of the activity will likely be along an east-to-
west line across our northern counties, the possibility of strong/
severe storms should exist across the entire CWA (Marginal Risk as
per SPC Day 1 Outlook). However, instability should remain limited
through this afternoon/early evening. We are still looking for the
highest rainfall totals over the northern half of the CWA, with 1-
2 inch averages...one quarter to one half over the southern half.
We should see the bulk of this more organized development move off
to the E/SE this evening...but the slow trek of the upper low will
help to keep wrap-around cloud cover and rain in the forecast into
the overnight hours. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Wednesday]...
Dry/quiet weather on tap for Thurs and Fri as the upper ridge builds
in from the west. The return of onshore winds and an increasingly SW
flow aloft is forecast by the weekend. This should allow for warming
temperatures through the start of next week. As the southern jet be-
comes more active, increased rain chances are progged to return late
Sun...with POPs likely going up Mon/Tues with the passage of a fair-
ly well-defined/fast moving shortwave and an associated cold front.
41
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have backed inland and into Galveston Bay with dense fog in
obs and coastal webcams. As pressures fall over the Hill Country
expect winds near the coast to veer back to the southeast and
strengthen a little which will probably only keep the fog threat
high. As the low moves through SETX expect a cold front to swing
through from west to east and turn winds to the west and northwest
this afternoon into the evening. This should finally end the fog
threat. In the meantime swells will continue with the long fetch and
seas of 5-6 feet should be pretty common through the mid afternoon
hours (SCEC). With the winds swinging around to the W and NW winds
should strengthen and build seas into SCA conditions this evening.
The offshore flow continues as high pressure settles into the state
then slowly slides east with SCA to SCEC conditions on tap through
Friday even with slight lull Thursday. High pressure finally slides
east and easterly onshore flow commences Saturday and gradually
comes around to the southeast Sunday with richer moisture arriving
Monday and Tuesday and could be back into a fog threat again.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
VLIFR near the coast to IFR at CXO and MVFR at UTS with fog
across the southern half of the area and areas of dense fog near
the coast. VLIFR-IFR should continue through late morning 15-17z
before gradually improving inland. Rain chances increasing today
with showers the main threat though isolated thunderstorms
certainly possible especially across the north and VCTS or TEMPO
TSRA should be the norm - CLL around 16z and UTS/CXO around 18z.
Showers will probably still be going on across much of the area
from GLS-11R northeastward underneath the lagging upper trough
late this afternoon through midnight. Wrap around MVFR deck will
likely linger into Thursday 18z. 45
&&
.CLIMATE...
Another warm day yesterday with the record high minimum temperature
tied at HOU - 69 degrees previously 1985. At Galveston overnight
temperature only bottomed out at 67 degrees which was 1 degree
warmer than the old record of 66 from 1945. With the front coming
through no records should fall today.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 51 71 47 71 / 100 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 54 72 51 72 / 80 40 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 55 70 55 69 / 60 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Galveston...
Matagorda Islands.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
A whole lot of nothing. Again. Maybe a thin squall line in beaumont. But thats it! We were forecasted 80% overnight lastnight and 90% today. Nothing so far. This seems to be the new norm around here. Cloudy dreary Weather it is... next...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
The jet stream has been too far north of SETX lately to provide any lift around this part of the state. Same thing will continue till the jet stream comes further south.
That line headed towards SE Texas looks pretty weaksauce.