February 2020

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:56 pm

I meant last real shot for a freeze. Of course we will continue to have cold fronts, probably into May. But the trend will be up.

NWS has raised tomorrow night’s forecast low to 33.

unome
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Re: February 2020

Post by unome » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:00 am

5 hrs at or below freezing :cry: :(
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Katdaddy
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Re: February 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:48 am

Clouds have streamed across SE TX overnight behind the cold front with some wrap around clouds headed S from NTX. Temps in the 40s and 50s across SE TX with gusty NW winds. Highs in the 50s today with a Wind Advisory for much of SE TX and Gale Warning for the offshore waters. Skies still expected to clear this evening across most of the area resulting in a light freeze for many areas except the immediate coast. Remember the plants and pets tonight. The warming trend begins Friday with continued sun through Saturday.

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North to northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
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unome
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Re: February 2020

Post by unome » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:35 am

Happy Windsday y'all - it's a rather blustery day

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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:19 am

unome wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:00 am
5 hrs at or below freezing :cry: :(
Yeah back down to 31 for me as well. And brrr that wind is chilly today.

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:07 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:56 pm
I meant last real shot for a freeze. Of course we will continue to have cold fronts, probably into May. But the trend will be up.

NWS has raised tomorrow night’s forecast low to 33.
We’ve had some freezes in March before though. We had one last year if I remember correctly and I think in 2002 we got down into the teens the first week of March.

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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:32 pm

139
FXUS64 KHGX 261745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1145 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Gusty northwest winds 15-25kt G 25-35kts this afternoon
diminishing and becoming light and variable late this evening as
high pressure settles into the Hill country/Coastal Bend. BKN-OVC
3500-4500ft deck wrapping around shifting southeastward with time
through the afternoon while eroding from the edges. SKC should
follow after this departs into East Texas.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1001 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/...


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Cloud deck expanding southward with some erosion on the western
fringes. Temperatures will be nearly steady or rising only
slightly this afternoon as the sun peeks through. Wind advisory
remains in effect and don`t foresee expansing the advisory as
stronger winds should be in a belt across the western half of the
area.


45


.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Wednesday]...

The first half of this period will be uneventful as the state
still remains under a mid to upper level northwesterly flow
pattern. At the surface, high pressure will rule through the
weekend. This will translate to very dry and pleasant late week
weather conditions...clear skies with light and north/west veering
variable breezes. Subsequent late February days will warm from
the early morning upper 30s/lower 40s (Thursday) to the 50s (by
Sunday AM) as days warm from Thursday afternoon`s mid to upper 50s
to Leap Year - Saturday`s lower 70s.

March begins on a different yet very familiar note. Return flow
overnight Sunday morning will begin the moisture pump that will
take weekend sub-inch pwats to around 1.3 inches (between the 75th
and 99th percentile for early March) by Monday. Early week zonal
flow will back more southwesterly as models forecast a sharp
Plains trough that will dig well into northern Mexico. This deep
trough axis is forecast to sweep/lift across the state early
Wednesday. This scenario will strengthen Sunday through Tuesday`s
southerlies, thicken up clouds and introduce low end chance
drizzle/streamer shower chances to Monday`s forecast. Despite the
fairly aggressive nature of the mid-upper longwave trough`s
approach and passage (or lift across the Piney Woods), the
surface reflection of the associated cold front will not come
through with much fanfare Tuesday. Moderate chances for rain and
isolated thunderstorms focuses across the northern CWA Tuesday
afternoon in relation to this front`s dynamics. The larger story
may be the unseasonable warmth as this warm air advection pattern
may stick morning lows in the middle to upper 60s with afternoons
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s (by Tuesday). A more
westerly wind on Wednesday in the wake of the lower level boundary
will `regulate` temperatures back into the morning 50s/afternoon
upper 60s to lower 70s. 31


.MARINE...
NNW winds and seas will further increase into the morning hours.
Will maintain current hazard setup with advisories in the bays thru
sunset. Gale warnings will continue in the Gulf until noon, then
being replaced with advisories into tonight. Water levels will
bottom out between -0.5ft and -1ft MLLW during the next low tide
cycle. This is just above low water advsy criteria, but should be
taken into account of regardless esp larger vessels for grounding
purposes. Winds/sea begin to slowly diminish tonight and Thursday as
surface high pressure expands into the region. As the high moves off
to the east, look for onshore winds will resume Saturday and gradually
strengthen into early next week. Caution/advisories may be required
again by late weekend. 47


.FIRE...
Elevated fire danger today. Afternoon humidity falling into the 30
to 35 percent range or lower with gusty NNW winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 30 58 38 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 32 58 42 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 54 48 62 53 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel
TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport
TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$



AVIATION...45

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Belmer
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Re: February 2020

Post by Belmer » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:08 pm

Tonight very well could be the last area wide freeze until next winter. Outlying areas could dip near freezing again Friday morning, but most should stay in the mid 30s.

Very spring like weather looks to take hold across much of the country as we head into March.
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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:46 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:07 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:56 pm
I meant last real shot for a freeze. Of course we will continue to have cold fronts, probably into May. But the trend will be up.

NWS has raised tomorrow night’s forecast low to 33.
We’ve had some freezes in March before though. We had one last year if I remember correctly and I think in 2002 we got down into the teens the first week of March.
True. We even had snow flurries in April a few years ago. But the pattern looks like it’s shifting such that this is probably the last freeze threat for the season.

My low has been raised back up to 33.

My lips are chapped and my face feels like sandpaper today.

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Re: February 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:34 pm

Meanwhile it's snowing across the Smokey Mountains this evening. Cheers!
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