February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:11 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:23 am
DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:07 am
NOAA: hottest January evah (in recorded weather history).

Mosquito hawks appeared today in BCS weeks (too) early.

As a North Carolinian I can say it's ice that snaps branches and kills pine trees, not so much snow.
I suppose it depends on the location and species. Loblolly and southern longleaf pines are confined to eastern North Carolina. The pines in western North Carolina are better adapted to snow. At higher elevations you get into fir tree conifers, which can handle the snow just fine.

Birmingham is just far enough south to have more of the longleaf variety of pines. You can pull-up a map of Alabama on Google Earth or satellite view, and you can see the terrain in northern Alabama, north of Birmingham, the color of the vegetation transitions to a deeper green, especially on the ridges. This is because those pines are shortleaf pines and have a slightly darker, more blue-ish or olive color versus the bright green of southern pines.

Yes, ice is a major problem for pine trees. But during the storm, we heard lots of pines snapping during the night because of the weight of the heavy snow. It was eerie. The ice wasn’t really a problem until after the first day when the snow re-froze into ice. By then, the damage was already done.
I grew up in eastern NC, but I don't remember our loblollys snapping because of snow alone. If there was only snow the softness of the limbs (plus any wind) caused the snow to fall off branches rather than pile up.

Snow + ice was a different matter. Limb crushing.

I can't address pines in the Birmingham area and snow having only traveled through back and forth to ATL, NC, Texas... except those pines are brittle and prone to disease, insects, including fire ants. I'd only speculate that weakened branches probably cracked. If they were softer limbs, they probably would have been OK.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:24 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:11 pm
I grew up in eastern NC, but I don't remember our loblollys snapping because of snow alone. If there was only snow the softness of the limbs (plus any wind) caused the snow to fall off branches rather than pile up.

Snow + ice was a different matter. Limb crushing.

I can't address pines in the Birmingham area and snow having only traveled through back and forth to ATL, NC, Texas... except those pines are brittle and prone to disease, insects, including fire ants. I'd only speculate that weakened branches probably cracked. If they were softer limbs, they probably would have been OK.
Did you ever see 13-16" of snow?

It snapped one of our cedar trees in half, too.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:52 pm

From Jeff Lindner:

Similar pattern in place this week as with last week.

First part of the week will feature warm and humid conditions with coastal sea fog while the second half of the week will be colder and wetter.

Onshore flow has returned a warm and moist air mass across the region with surface dewpoints rising into the mid and upper 60’s over the area. These warm dewpoints over near 60 degree water temperatures is resulting in ¼ to ½ mile visibilities in sea fog along the entire upper TX coast this afternoon. Sea fog will begin to move inland around sunset and could extend inland to near I-10 by sunrise Tuesday. A strong cold front is currently moving through OK and will arrive into SE TX late Tuesday and push off the coast early Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon and night over the region, but not expecting much with the main core of jet dynamics well to our NE. Front early Wednesday will clear the sea fog threat for a few days.

Shallow yet cold air mass will rapidly entrench over the area Wednesday with high temperatures holding in the 40’s and 50’s under gusty north winds. Upper level trough over the SW US will keep a continued SW flow aloft above the surface cold dome resulting in clouds, drizzle and light rain. Better rain chances enter the forecast, especially north of I-10, Wednesday afternoon and night as strong lift comes to bear along the 850mb frontal slope. Expect widespread showers and some thunderstorms especially in the College Station to Livingston region with lesser amounts of coverage toward the south. Rainfall accumulations of .50 to 2.0 inches will be possible with the higher amounts along and N of HWY 105. Will need to watch for sustained bands of heavier rainfall near the 850mb boundary Wednesday evening as such bands could generate a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall. This is the same area that saw the greater rainfall amounts last week and this incoming rain will fall near the peak of downstream moving floodwaves generated last week on the Trinity and Brazos Rivers.

A cool and dry air mass will advect into the region Thursday into Friday with seasonal lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 50’s to near 60. Southerly flow begins to return to the area as early as Saturday as another system approaches from the WSW and a chance of showers looks to be back in the forecast by Sunday. Additionally, sea fog will likely be back by late in the weekend along the coast.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

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Re: February 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:43 am

Another warm but mostly cloudy day ahead with showers possible this afternoon. The cold front will move off the coast tonight and Wednesday will be much cooler with continue rain and showers especially N of Houston.
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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:52 pm

Update from Jeff:

Another unseasonably warm day will transition to much cooler conditions tonight.

Warm and humid air mass remains in place over the region this morning with southerly flow continuing. A cold front over NW TX will move SE today and arrive into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Could see a line of showers and maybe a thunderstorm develop along the boundary, especially east of I-45 after sunset. Much colder conditions will overtake the area by Wednesday morning as the boundary moves off the coast allowing temperatures to fall into the 40’s and 50’s for highs on Wednesday under gusty N winds.

Better rainfall chances will develop behind the surface front and focus along the 850mb front from College Station to Livingston Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some of the rainfall over this area could be heavy at times with expected storm totals of 1-2 inches with isolated amounts up to 3 inches…mainly north of HWY 105. South of HWY 105 rainfall amounts will average .50 to 1.5 inches with the lesser totals toward the coast and Matagorda Bay and the higher totals north of I-10. Rains will end from NW to SE on NW as a drier air mass finally moves into the region from the southern plains. With clouds, rain, and cold air advection in place Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will struggle to warm much at all and likely remain in the 40’s and 50’s both days.

Clearly skies late Thursday into Friday will allow a larger swing in temperatures with lows in the upper 30’s and highs near 60 on Friday. Southerly winds begin to return as early as midday Saturday and expect a quick return of moisture off the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening. Think most of Saturday will be dry, but showers will enter the forecast by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday and possibly Monday ahead of the next frontal passage. Mid to late next week is looking cold as a strong cold front moves through the area about a week from today.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:44 pm

I'm tired of Fring already. I suspect the Sprummer thunderstorm season is going to be bad this year.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:28 pm

I’m beginning to wonder if this 70% chance of rain for tonight is going to materialize. The front came through dry and all the showers are up north.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:44 am

No rain here, just some drizzle.

There is a great writeup today on Space City Weather:

https://spacecityweather.com/spring-fli ... ke-winter/

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:56 am

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:28 pm
I’m beginning to wonder if this 70% chance of rain for tonight is going to materialize. The front came through dry and all the showers are up north.
It’ll be a repeat of last week. Another bust. I already told everyone don’t expect much of anything especially south of 10.

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Re: February 2020

Post by djmike » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:09 pm

Yup. Rain chances keep getting lowered for bmt every hour. Was 90% thru Thursday and as I write this still not one drop of rain. Exact same scenario as last week. I don’t understand why they are so off. Last week, ok. But this week too?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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