February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Rain for me to...wont know till it starts falling from the sky
Cpv17
Posts: 5289
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The Euro and GFS are trying to come together around day 10 for a pretty significant cold blast.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Cold Front As of 1:45 Pm
Attachments
Cold Front 02 04 20 at 1 45 pm.JPG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Cold Front as of 3:15 pm
Attachments
Cold Front 02 04 20 at 3 15 pm.JPG
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

One last run today until probably Friday afternoon.

Security guard says she is not looking forward to tomorrow. I bet. I wouldn’t want to be outside all day in that wind.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

NWS on board with...something.
Attachments
forecast.jpg
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:39 pm One last run today until probably Friday afternoon.

Security guard says she is not looking forward to tomorrow. I bet. I wouldn’t want to be outside all day in that wind.

Nah, it'll be great. Layers.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5674
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Hi Res Euro from today (12z):

Image
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

snowmap NWS CRH https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

select the time range on the slider bar, default is 24 hrs
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail this morning as moisture
remains trapped beneath a capping inversion. A weak upper level
disturbance will approach the area this morning and will bring a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to mainly the SE
half of the region. Ceilings will begin to lift as the disturbance
exits the region this afternoon. A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings
expected tonight but another weak disturbance will move into the
area between 03-06z. A bout of light precipitation is expected
with the better lift/forcing over the N-NW TAF sites.Could be cold
enough to get a mix of -ra/-sn at KCLL and KUTS. Further south,
just some patchy very light rain possible. Precip should end prior
to 12z with MVFR conditions transitioning to VFR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
At 4 AM, a cold front was nearing the coast. Not much precipitation was
occurring ahead of the boundary but a speed max will be approaching the
area and lift should start to increase by 12z with showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms developing over mainly the SE third of the CWA. The
speed max will exit the area by 18z so most of the rain will end by
afternoon. Moisture trapped beneath a very strong cap will keep skies
cloudy today and tonight. Will be adjusting temperatures as the front
crosses the coast but not much of a warm up is expected today with
cold air advection persisting. SPC has coastal areas outlooked in
Marginal Risk today and there are some steep mid level lapse rates
but the threat for marginally strong storms looks rather low.

Tonight, a weak upper level disturbance embedded in the SW upper flow,
modest lift on the east side of a deep upper trough and weak isentropic
upglide will bring the area some patchy light rain. Fcst soundings over
the north show the best potential for precipitation with a saturated layer
from about 850-950 mb, a dry layer above the inversion and then another
saturated layer from 700-500 mb. The sounding is generally below the zero
isotherm. If precip does develop, the most likely form will be snow for
areas north of a Columbus to Huntsville to Trinity line. Frontogenetic
forcing is strong from central Texas toward the NW part of the CWA. Can`t
help drawing parallels between this event and Dec 2017. Both events had
limited moisture but strong forcing compensated for the lack of moisture.
Will go with a mix of rain/snow/sleet and see how things evolve. At this time
no accumulations are expected due to recent warm temperatures. Further
south toward Houston, forcing is much weaker, saturation is less, so would
expect just some very light rain but most of the area will probably remain
dry. It`ll be cold tonight with lows in the 30`s but the clouds will
insulate and keep temps above freezing over most of the region. Any residual
precipitation will end prior to 12z with partial clearing beginning
early Thursday morning. Skies are expected to clear by Thursday afternoon
with sunny skies by the end of the day. 850 temps are cold and even with
full afternoon sun, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 50`s. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

After a cold start on Friday morning with a light freeze expected
across the far north, temps will warm well into the 60s across
most of the area. A slow warming trend will continue through the
weekend with deeper moisture returning on Sunday as the mid-upper
level pattern undergoes a transition from zonal flow aloft to SW
flow aloft as a deep mid/upper slow moving low near the California
coast eventually evolves into a large western U.S. trough by
early in the week. Upper level disturbances out ahead of this
approaching trough will combine with increasing moisture to
produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday
afternoon which will continue until a cold front passes through at
some point next Wed. Monday through at least early Wednesday also
looks like a pretty good bet for coastal fog given the warm and
moist airmass that will be in place. Inland high temps will be in
the 70s from Sunday through Tues, and likely across southern
portions of the area on Wed as well. 33

MARINE...
Seas remain slightly elevated and an SCEC is in effect today for
gulf waters and adjacent bays. A cold front will cross the coastal
waters this morning with a moderate to occasionally strong offshore
wind developing. The strongest winds are lagging a bit behind the front
and speeds might not increase until mid/late afternoon. A tightening
pressure and thermal gradient will allow for a strong offshore flow
tonight and an SCA is in effect for the Gulf waters overnight. Winds
will diminish on Thursday as high pressure builds into South Texas.
Onshore winds will return Friday night and remain onshore through the
weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 31 55 34 68 / 50 40 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 37 54 38 68 / 70 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 41 54 48 65 / 70 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out
20 NM...Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19615
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front moving off the coast this morning

Wintry mix of sleet and snow possible tonight NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston

Discussion:

Strong surface boundary (cold front) is just about to Galveston with a 30 degree temperatures spread from Caldwell (40) to Galveston (69). Nearly all inland locations have fallen into the 40’s and 50’s with wind chills in the 30’s and 40’s under strong cold air advection. An upper air disturbance is currently moving across SC TX and will cross SE TX over the next 4-6 hours. Lift from this disturbance over top of the surface cold pool will likely result in the formation of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms this morning over the area. Thus far the radar is showing very little activity, but the maximum lift will come to bear in the 900-1100am time frame. Area will fall into a subsidence region behind the departing disturbance this afternoon with a lull in the rainfall.

Late tonight/Early Thursday:

Both global and high resolution short range models show yet another upper air impulse moving from NE MX across SC TX into SE TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. While surface layers begin to dry this afternoon, there appears to be enough moisture available to produce another round of light precipitation from about 1000pm this evening through 600am Thursday morning. Forcing/lift will be strong with this impulse and the arrival of the 700mb front late tonight will also help to add lift to the event…so while moisture is marginal…all of the lift in the atmosphere can potentially overcome a fairly dry air mass and result in precipitation. Latest run of the high resolution HRRR models does show some indications of mesoscale banded precipitation tonight suggesting the dynamics in place will be fairly potent. A review of forecast soundings for the Columbus and Huntsville areas continue to show a fairly pronounced warm nose (layer of above freezing air) in the 900-800mb level tonight. Columbus appears to cool more than Huntsville in this warm layer tonight and this is likely due to our western counties being closer to the core of the stronger lift. Forecast sounding looks more like a sleet profile than snow, but it would not take much dynamic cooling to bring the warm layer to freezing and a transition to snow.

Will continue with the thinking from yesterday that there will be a mix of light rain/sleet/snow tonight NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston with the best chances across Colorado, Austin, Washington, Burleson, and Brazos Counties. Surface temperatures are expected to remain in the 34-36 degree range so even if sleet and snow falls little to no accumulation is expected. Could see a few heavier bands of precipitation develop and where this occurs, there could be brief accumulation on elevated surface such as vehicles and roofs. Not expecting any travel impacts in this area at this time with warm surfaces from the recent warmth and surface temperatures above freezing.

Further to the east including the metro Houston area…the forecasted profile look too warm to support anything much than liquid. Would not be surprised to see some sleet or snow mix in with the light rain north and west, but the chances appear low. Surface temperatures will remain well above freezing (35-38 range) so there will be no impacts even if something frozen falls.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Well the rain came and went pretty fast. I think I got two whole drops.
cperk
Posts: 770
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

My temps have been dropping all morning.The NWS has a high of 52 for my area i am currently sitting at 43.9 degrees.
davidiowx
Posts: 1063
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

cperk wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am My temps have been dropping all morning.The NWS has a high of 52 for my area i am currently sitting at 43.9 degrees.
The high temps were probably reached earlier this morning. I can't imagine the temps will be going up any more than they are now and will probably be falling throughout the day. It will be interesting to see how much they fall!
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

My temp has leveled-off for now. It fell steadily until 10am and hit 44.4. Sitting at 44.8 now.
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Still sitting at 64 here in Beaumont
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

there is no longer a "wintry mix" icon in our HGX forecast for Cypress/NW Harris Co & nothing showing snow or ice in the graphical forecast for us either - forecast low is 34, won't cover plants & keep my fingers crossed
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 051748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Cold front has pushed through the area this morning with low
ceilings, fog and drizzle. There has been some elevated TS
associated with a jet streak moving over the area but that
activity has moved east. AMDAR airplane soundings show saturated
layer up to 800mb with a shallow frontal inversion with the cold
air only 2000ft deep. Ceilings seem to be improving slightly from
west to east and expect that trend to continue this afternoon. IFR
conditions to start should become MVFR late this afternoon.
Tonight ceilings should remain MVFR at the worst but this will
hinge on the next round of precip due to the main trough axis and
jet streak moving over the area. Forecast temp profiles are
marginal for frozen precip but enough to keep rain/snow mix in the
KCLL and KUTS TAFs for a few hours mainly 04-08Z. South of there
expect precip to be rain. After 12Z Thur, precip and cloud should
move east and expect clearing before 18Z Thur.

Overpeck

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Cold front has pushed south into the Gulf with temperatures
falling into the 40s/50s. We do not expect temps to recover much
this afternoon. There may be some light drizzle/mist through the
afternoon given a shallow front with the cold airmass about 2000
ft deep and isentropic lift over the front.

Main question tonight will be winter precip. Bottom line is that
yes it is possible say for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston
line. Model forecast soundings for KCLL and KUTS show profiles
capable of supporting a change of rain to snow, but there is a lot
of work that has be done thermodynamically. We will take a closer
look at this for the afternoon update, but in the end, any change
to snow will be brief and might see accumulations on grass areas
if that. We are not expecting any travel impacts since roads have
been warm and surface temperatures will be near or just above
freezing during the time of precipitation.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 31 54 34 68 45 / 40 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 37 53 38 68 51 / 40 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 53 48 65 58 / 30 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Overpeck

AVIATION...Overpeck
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5385
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Here is a gallery of snow photos from West Texas:
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texa ... o-18984458

It used to snow like that almost every year. Now, it's become a novelty.
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1703
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

I was expecting a lot more showers than that today. :?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Post Reply
  • Information