February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:23 am
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:07 am NOAA: hottest January evah (in recorded weather history).

Mosquito hawks appeared today in BCS weeks (too) early.

As a North Carolinian I can say it's ice that snaps branches and kills pine trees, not so much snow.
I suppose it depends on the location and species. Loblolly and southern longleaf pines are confined to eastern North Carolina. The pines in western North Carolina are better adapted to snow. At higher elevations you get into fir tree conifers, which can handle the snow just fine.

Birmingham is just far enough south to have more of the longleaf variety of pines. You can pull-up a map of Alabama on Google Earth or satellite view, and you can see the terrain in northern Alabama, north of Birmingham, the color of the vegetation transitions to a deeper green, especially on the ridges. This is because those pines are shortleaf pines and have a slightly darker, more blue-ish or olive color versus the bright green of southern pines.

Yes, ice is a major problem for pine trees. But during the storm, we heard lots of pines snapping during the night because of the weight of the heavy snow. It was eerie. The ice wasn’t really a problem until after the first day when the snow re-froze into ice. By then, the damage was already done.
I grew up in eastern NC, but I don't remember our loblollys snapping because of snow alone. If there was only snow the softness of the limbs (plus any wind) caused the snow to fall off branches rather than pile up.

Snow + ice was a different matter. Limb crushing.

I can't address pines in the Birmingham area and snow having only traveled through back and forth to ATL, NC, Texas... except those pines are brittle and prone to disease, insects, including fire ants. I'd only speculate that weakened branches probably cracked. If they were softer limbs, they probably would have been OK.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:11 pm I grew up in eastern NC, but I don't remember our loblollys snapping because of snow alone. If there was only snow the softness of the limbs (plus any wind) caused the snow to fall off branches rather than pile up.

Snow + ice was a different matter. Limb crushing.

I can't address pines in the Birmingham area and snow having only traveled through back and forth to ATL, NC, Texas... except those pines are brittle and prone to disease, insects, including fire ants. I'd only speculate that weakened branches probably cracked. If they were softer limbs, they probably would have been OK.
Did you ever see 13-16" of snow?

It snapped one of our cedar trees in half, too.
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jasons2k
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From Jeff Lindner:

Similar pattern in place this week as with last week.

First part of the week will feature warm and humid conditions with coastal sea fog while the second half of the week will be colder and wetter.

Onshore flow has returned a warm and moist air mass across the region with surface dewpoints rising into the mid and upper 60’s over the area. These warm dewpoints over near 60 degree water temperatures is resulting in ¼ to ½ mile visibilities in sea fog along the entire upper TX coast this afternoon. Sea fog will begin to move inland around sunset and could extend inland to near I-10 by sunrise Tuesday. A strong cold front is currently moving through OK and will arrive into SE TX late Tuesday and push off the coast early Wednesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon and night over the region, but not expecting much with the main core of jet dynamics well to our NE. Front early Wednesday will clear the sea fog threat for a few days.

Shallow yet cold air mass will rapidly entrench over the area Wednesday with high temperatures holding in the 40’s and 50’s under gusty north winds. Upper level trough over the SW US will keep a continued SW flow aloft above the surface cold dome resulting in clouds, drizzle and light rain. Better rain chances enter the forecast, especially north of I-10, Wednesday afternoon and night as strong lift comes to bear along the 850mb frontal slope. Expect widespread showers and some thunderstorms especially in the College Station to Livingston region with lesser amounts of coverage toward the south. Rainfall accumulations of .50 to 2.0 inches will be possible with the higher amounts along and N of HWY 105. Will need to watch for sustained bands of heavier rainfall near the 850mb boundary Wednesday evening as such bands could generate a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall. This is the same area that saw the greater rainfall amounts last week and this incoming rain will fall near the peak of downstream moving floodwaves generated last week on the Trinity and Brazos Rivers.

A cool and dry air mass will advect into the region Thursday into Friday with seasonal lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 50’s to near 60. Southerly flow begins to return to the area as early as Saturday as another system approaches from the WSW and a chance of showers looks to be back in the forecast by Sunday. Additionally, sea fog will likely be back by late in the weekend along the coast.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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Katdaddy
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Another warm but mostly cloudy day ahead with showers possible this afternoon. The cold front will move off the coast tonight and Wednesday will be much cooler with continue rain and showers especially N of Houston.
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jasons2k
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Update from Jeff:

Another unseasonably warm day will transition to much cooler conditions tonight.

Warm and humid air mass remains in place over the region this morning with southerly flow continuing. A cold front over NW TX will move SE today and arrive into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Could see a line of showers and maybe a thunderstorm develop along the boundary, especially east of I-45 after sunset. Much colder conditions will overtake the area by Wednesday morning as the boundary moves off the coast allowing temperatures to fall into the 40’s and 50’s for highs on Wednesday under gusty N winds.

Better rainfall chances will develop behind the surface front and focus along the 850mb front from College Station to Livingston Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some of the rainfall over this area could be heavy at times with expected storm totals of 1-2 inches with isolated amounts up to 3 inches…mainly north of HWY 105. South of HWY 105 rainfall amounts will average .50 to 1.5 inches with the lesser totals toward the coast and Matagorda Bay and the higher totals north of I-10. Rains will end from NW to SE on NW as a drier air mass finally moves into the region from the southern plains. With clouds, rain, and cold air advection in place Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will struggle to warm much at all and likely remain in the 40’s and 50’s both days.

Clearly skies late Thursday into Friday will allow a larger swing in temperatures with lows in the upper 30’s and highs near 60 on Friday. Southerly winds begin to return as early as midday Saturday and expect a quick return of moisture off the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening. Think most of Saturday will be dry, but showers will enter the forecast by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday and possibly Monday ahead of the next frontal passage. Mid to late next week is looking cold as a strong cold front moves through the area about a week from today.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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I'm tired of Fring already. I suspect the Sprummer thunderstorm season is going to be bad this year.
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jasons2k
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I’m beginning to wonder if this 70% chance of rain for tonight is going to materialize. The front came through dry and all the showers are up north.
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jasons2k
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No rain here, just some drizzle.

There is a great writeup today on Space City Weather:

https://spacecityweather.com/spring-fli ... ke-winter/
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:28 pm I’m beginning to wonder if this 70% chance of rain for tonight is going to materialize. The front came through dry and all the showers are up north.
It’ll be a repeat of last week. Another bust. I already told everyone don’t expect much of anything especially south of 10.
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djmike
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Yup. Rain chances keep getting lowered for bmt every hour. Was 90% thru Thursday and as I write this still not one drop of rain. Exact same scenario as last week. I don’t understand why they are so off. Last week, ok. But this week too?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191806
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Expect scattered showers and IFR CIGs to continue through tomorrow
morning across the area. Through the rest of the day today, the
heaviest rain showers will remain north of the area along a
boundary. This boundary will move through late tonight bringing a
better chance of precipitation, but it will be weakening as it
pushes through. So, the sites that have the best chance of
getting SHRA will be CLL, UTS, CXO, and IAH. Overnight tonight
CIGs will remain around 5000 to 7000 feet, but ceilings do rise
tomorrow afternoon to MVFR as the front moves off the coast.
Breezy northerly winds will be expected starting tomorrow
afternoon through tomorrow night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 547 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/...
DISCUSSION...

The front has finally passed through all of Southeast Texas and
has pushed out over the Gulf, finally bringing an end to the fog
event for the entire area, with the exception of some Gulf waters
several miles offshore.

Despite this, look for rainy conditions to continue. Like
yesterday, expect the most rain north of Houston - perhaps from
roughly Brenham to Livingston northward. For the rest of the area
south of that line, another cloudy day with sprinkles and mist are
likely, along with some chance of briefly seeing a light rain
shower. Look for stronger rain potential to drift coastward
tonight into Thursday before things clear out Thursday night.

Beyond that bit of fair weather, look for two more shots at rain.
One this weekend, in a window from Saturday night through Sunday
night. If moisture remains high, another disturbance will bring a
second shot at rain closer to mid-week.

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...

Cooler temperatures and periods of rain can be expected across
Southeast Texas today through Thursday. Will continue to carry
the higher rain chances up north and the lower rain chances at
the coast today, then increase the chances across the area for
tonight through Thursday morning. Similar to yesterday, there
remains the possibility for some locally heavy rain to develop
for parts of our northern counties where any training of cells
happens. Rain coverage will decrease (generally from north to
south) on Thursday as strong high pressure settles in from the
north. North winds will be strengthening during the day and we
might get close to wind advisory levels near/along some of our
coastal counties during the day on Thursday.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Thursday evening, we`re still looking for waves of vort blobs
making their way though the upper atmosphere above the remnant
frontal zone above the surface drifting slowly coastward. Guidance
continues to suggest that it will drift south enough to push the
best convergence for light to moderate rain showers offshore,
letting land areas dry out Thursday night. Expect the waters to
follow shortly thereafter as deeper dry air forces its way in, and
northwest flow aloft finally sets up due to ridging to our west.

This should give us a good shot at fair weather on Friday into
Saturday, though temperatures will likely be cooler than typical
for mid-to-late February. However, that is not likely to persist
deep into the weekend, as onshore winds are expected to return
Saturday.

An upper trough looks to head due east from the Desert Southwest
into the Southern Plains, inducing lee cyclogenesis around the
Panhandles on Sunday. This should give us a moisture and lift
connection with the Pacific at high altitudes again, while
boundary layer moisture returns with the onshore flow. So...you
probably guessed it...this turn of events should give us more
seasonable temperatures, but also a return of rain chances. I keep
some potential for showers in place as early as Saturday evening,
but guidance seems to be slowly coming into shape on the best
chances coming late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The Euro
still comes through strong with a late weekend front - the GFS is
beginning to come around to that as well, but is still much
slower. For now, will continue to keep the forecast more Euro-ish
and going dry on Monday, but I do keep the PoP window spread wider
than I expect it will end up being due to uncertainty in timing
at this range.

Beyond that...well...good luck in determining a cohesive
narrative. There`s broad consensus in another stronger northern
stream trough moving through the Central US in the midweek, but
there`s precious little agreement on the strength of that trough,
or precise timing. Both will have significant implications for
weather in our area. We could see another front like at the
beginning of the week, complete with rain chances. Or, we may see
something more like a reinforcing front pushed by a mass of
colder, drier air. For now...I`m basically going with a blended
forecast of least regret, with modest temperature changes and
20-30 percent PoPs. As confidence grows (hopefully!) in a more
specific scenario, expect the forecast to trend in the direction
that confidence brings us.

MARINE...

A cold front will continue to slowly move across the coastal
waters today. Decreasing fog coverage can be expected behind
the front. As strong high pressure builds into the area from
the north, look for strengthening north winds beginning late
tonight or early on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be
needed for the increase in winds and building seas. Stronger
north winds and rough seas can be expected late Thursday
afternoon through early Friday morning with gale force wind
gusts possible. Seas will come down and winds will diminish/
return to the southeast on Saturday. The next cold front is
expected late Sunday night or early Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...

Despite the cold front already having crossed the area, unsettled
weather with high rain chances will persist through today and into
tomorrow before finally coming to an end. Similarly, the typical
post-frontal increase in winds should also be delayed, but still
looks to come Thursday afternoon/evening, while lingering rain
showers may still be in the picture, and conditions will be
further mitigated by previous rainfall and cooler weather
mitigating a drop in moisture, keeping relative humidity high.
Warmer temperatures on Friday should allow for lower humidity
values that afternoon. but mitigating factors are still present,
as all but fine fuels are likely to be fairly moist and winds will
also be weaker. The expected decrease in humidity and moderate wind
speeds may be favorable for prescribed burning, but that
determination - as always - will ultimately depend on multiple
factors beyond merely weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 46 50 37 53 37 / 80 80 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 49 52 39 53 38 / 80 80 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 53 58 44 54 48 / 80 80 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...42
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs
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jasons2k
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Well, I was hoping to get about an inch out of this (see map, previous page) and now I'm wondering if I will see anything more than this drizzle.
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jasons2k
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Yikes!! Forecast for tomorrow night has dropped to 32!!
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djmike
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Temp for bmt tomorrow WAS 39 now shows 33! Bust be stronger than they thought. Still sad no “ice” fun this year. Lol Always a nice unexpected day off work every year. Didnt happen last year either.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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Storm total: .17"

It sure is chilly in that wind.
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Katdaddy
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Its cold morning with temps in the mid to upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s across across the Upper TX Coast. Winds are still gusty across the coastal counties. The skies have finally cleared overnight so enjoy the sunny skies today.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020


.AVIATION...
VFR. Clear skies. Surface high pressure moving across will
continue to weaken northerly winds through the day. Late period
(early Saturday) cirrus with light easterlies. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday]...

The slow southeastern movement of the large 1040 mb Southern
Plains High into the state will weaken this recently strong
offshore pressure gradient. This will gradually lower surface
northerlies to under 10 knots through the day. A northern 1.3 to
1.5 inch pwat air mass descending into eastern state will lower
mid to lower level humidity to 50% or under and ensure mainly
clear skies through early Saturday evening. High cloudiness
Saturday as cirrus rides up and over transitory upper ridging.
While northerly winds will significantly weaken under sunny skies
today, cold air advection will keep today`s temperatures cool; mid
to late afternoon low to mid 50s. Weak easterly breezes and mainly
clear early Saturday morning skies will allow for decent radiative
cooling; interior lower to middle 30 / coastal lower 40 minimum
temperatures. Early Saturday easterly winds will gradually veer
back onshore by the late afternoon and assist in warming daytime
temperatures back up to near 60 F. 31

&&

LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Thursday]...

High pressure continues to move off to the east and onshore winds
strengthen Saturday night and Sunday resulting in increasing
clouds and rising humidities. Some showers might pop up Sunday
afternoon and evening way up north, but the area`s next best rain
chances look to come late Sunday night through Monday with the
approach and passage of our next cold front. Before the front`s
arrival, a warming trend can be expected (highs most locations in
the 60s on Sunday and in the 70s on Monday). After a cool Tuesday
morning in the wake of the front, we should warm up back close to
70 before the next front moves through the area (it should be too
dry for any rain with this boundary) and cools us back down. A
general northwest flow aloft behind this front will bring our area
cool temperatures (lows mainly in the 30s/40s and highs mainly in
the 50s/60s) and dry weather with mostly clear to clear skies for
the remainder of the week. 42

&&

MARINE...

Early day Gulf wind gusts have remained under gale force. Therefore
have lowered the Gulf Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory and
have kept the local bays in a Small Craft Exercise Caution.
Weakening northerlies through the day will have nearshore Gulf
Advisory flags dropping off early this afternoon...offshore flags
expiring at sunset. Morning significant wave heights in the 5 to 6
feet nearshore...7 to 9 ft offshore range will fall to around 3
feet nearshore and 5 to 6 feet offshore by this evening. Weak
east- southeast winds Saturday will create 2 to 3 foot seas with a
strengthening onshore flow Sunday picking early week average seas
back up to around 3 to 4 feet. There will be two frontal passages
next week; a weaker front Monday night followed by a much stronger
frontal passage 24 hours later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Offshore winds late Monday into Tuesday may briefly touch Caution
criteria but a much colder air mass following behind the mid week
cold front will significantly strengthen northerlies and elevate
seas. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 34 59 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 55 34 59 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 54 41 56 54 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31
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jasons2k
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Forecast tonight is 33 now. Gonna be close.
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jasons2k
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Great, so now after bedtime, they lower it back to down 32. SMH.
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jasons2k
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My low was 36.4. 4 degrees warmer than expected, but I’ll take it. Hopefully that’s the last of the freeze scares, although I just checked and see a forecast low of 33 next Wednesday. Everything is blooming now, even the Azaleas. Don't want a freeze at this point.
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