February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Re: February 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:07 am

Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front moving off the coast this morning

Wintry mix of sleet and snow possible tonight NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston

Discussion:

Strong surface boundary (cold front) is just about to Galveston with a 30 degree temperatures spread from Caldwell (40) to Galveston (69). Nearly all inland locations have fallen into the 40’s and 50’s with wind chills in the 30’s and 40’s under strong cold air advection. An upper air disturbance is currently moving across SC TX and will cross SE TX over the next 4-6 hours. Lift from this disturbance over top of the surface cold pool will likely result in the formation of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms this morning over the area. Thus far the radar is showing very little activity, but the maximum lift will come to bear in the 900-1100am time frame. Area will fall into a subsidence region behind the departing disturbance this afternoon with a lull in the rainfall.

Late tonight/Early Thursday:

Both global and high resolution short range models show yet another upper air impulse moving from NE MX across SC TX into SE TX late tonight into early Thursday morning. While surface layers begin to dry this afternoon, there appears to be enough moisture available to produce another round of light precipitation from about 1000pm this evening through 600am Thursday morning. Forcing/lift will be strong with this impulse and the arrival of the 700mb front late tonight will also help to add lift to the event…so while moisture is marginal…all of the lift in the atmosphere can potentially overcome a fairly dry air mass and result in precipitation. Latest run of the high resolution HRRR models does show some indications of mesoscale banded precipitation tonight suggesting the dynamics in place will be fairly potent. A review of forecast soundings for the Columbus and Huntsville areas continue to show a fairly pronounced warm nose (layer of above freezing air) in the 900-800mb level tonight. Columbus appears to cool more than Huntsville in this warm layer tonight and this is likely due to our western counties being closer to the core of the stronger lift. Forecast sounding looks more like a sleet profile than snow, but it would not take much dynamic cooling to bring the warm layer to freezing and a transition to snow.

Will continue with the thinking from yesterday that there will be a mix of light rain/sleet/snow tonight NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston with the best chances across Colorado, Austin, Washington, Burleson, and Brazos Counties. Surface temperatures are expected to remain in the 34-36 degree range so even if sleet and snow falls little to no accumulation is expected. Could see a few heavier bands of precipitation develop and where this occurs, there could be brief accumulation on elevated surface such as vehicles and roofs. Not expecting any travel impacts in this area at this time with warm surfaces from the recent warmth and surface temperatures above freezing.

Further to the east including the metro Houston area…the forecasted profile look too warm to support anything much than liquid. Would not be surprised to see some sleet or snow mix in with the light rain north and west, but the chances appear low. Surface temperatures will remain well above freezing (35-38 range) so there will be no impacts even if something frozen falls.
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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:15 am

Well the rain came and went pretty fast. I think I got two whole drops.

cperk
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Re: February 2020

Post by cperk » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am

My temps have been dropping all morning.The NWS has a high of 52 for my area i am currently sitting at 43.9 degrees.

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Re: February 2020

Post by davidiowx » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:57 am

cperk wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:46 am
My temps have been dropping all morning.The NWS has a high of 52 for my area i am currently sitting at 43.9 degrees.
The high temps were probably reached earlier this morning. I can't imagine the temps will be going up any more than they are now and will probably be falling throughout the day. It will be interesting to see how much they fall!

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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:13 am

My temp has leveled-off for now. It fell steadily until 10am and hit 44.4. Sitting at 44.8 now.

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snowman65
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Re: February 2020

Post by snowman65 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:21 am

Still sitting at 64 here in Beaumont

unome
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Re: February 2020

Post by unome » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:53 am

there is no longer a "wintry mix" icon in our HGX forecast for Cypress/NW Harris Co & nothing showing snow or ice in the graphical forecast for us either - forecast low is 34, won't cover plants & keep my fingers crossed

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:55 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 051748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Cold front has pushed through the area this morning with low
ceilings, fog and drizzle. There has been some elevated TS
associated with a jet streak moving over the area but that
activity has moved east. AMDAR airplane soundings show saturated
layer up to 800mb with a shallow frontal inversion with the cold
air only 2000ft deep. Ceilings seem to be improving slightly from
west to east and expect that trend to continue this afternoon. IFR
conditions to start should become MVFR late this afternoon.
Tonight ceilings should remain MVFR at the worst but this will
hinge on the next round of precip due to the main trough axis and
jet streak moving over the area. Forecast temp profiles are
marginal for frozen precip but enough to keep rain/snow mix in the
KCLL and KUTS TAFs for a few hours mainly 04-08Z. South of there
expect precip to be rain. After 12Z Thur, precip and cloud should
move east and expect clearing before 18Z Thur.

Overpeck

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Cold front has pushed south into the Gulf with temperatures
falling into the 40s/50s. We do not expect temps to recover much
this afternoon. There may be some light drizzle/mist through the
afternoon given a shallow front with the cold airmass about 2000
ft deep and isentropic lift over the front.

Main question tonight will be winter precip. Bottom line is that
yes it is possible say for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston
line. Model forecast soundings for KCLL and KUTS show profiles
capable of supporting a change of rain to snow, but there is a lot
of work that has be done thermodynamically. We will take a closer
look at this for the afternoon update, but in the end, any change
to snow will be brief and might see accumulations on grass areas
if that. We are not expecting any travel impacts since roads have
been warm and surface temperatures will be near or just above
freezing during the time of precipitation.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 31 54 34 68 45 / 40 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 37 53 38 68 51 / 40 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 53 48 65 58 / 30 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Overpeck

AVIATION...Overpeck

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:33 pm

Here is a gallery of snow photos from West Texas:
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texa ... o-18984458

It used to snow like that almost every year. Now, it's become a novelty.

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djmike
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Re: February 2020

Post by djmike » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:38 pm

I was expecting a lot more showers than that today. :?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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