February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A powerful cold front will move across the area tonight and early Wednesday

Slight chance of a wintery mix from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston Thursday morning.

Discussion:
Modified arctic air mass is surging into NW TX this morning and is plowing southward. Temperatures behind the front fall rapidly into the 30’s and 40’s while ahead of the boundary temperatures will warm into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s this afternoon under warm air advection off the Gulf of Mexico. While moisture has increased over the region, there is little in the way of lift for today and expect mostly dry conditions. A weak short wave will move out of NE MX late this afternoon and may result in a few showers over the area. Otherwise, will have to wait on the arrival of the shallow, but cold dense air mass overnight for better rain chances.

Shallow cold air mass will arrive into the NW counties around CLL early this evening and likely move off the coast around sunrise Wednesday morning. Front will likely move through Matagorda Bay before Galveston Bay as the boundary takes on an increasingly NNE/SSW slope overnight. Temperatures will fall from the 60’s into the 40’s quickly as the front passes under strong cold air advection. Upper trough remains over the SW US into Wednesday and this will result in moisture and lift over the shallow cold air mass. Light rain, drizzle, clouds will continue through midday Wednesday before the low levels begin to dry out some. Temperatures will go nowhere on Wednesday with cold air advection and light rain in place and hold in the 40’s with strong N winds pushing wind chills into the 30’s.

Wednesday night/Thursday Morning:

Upper air trough axis swings across TX along with a disturbance in the base of the trough eject NE out of MX and across SC/SE TX after midnight. While the profiles over the area start to dry out Wednesday afternoon, there does appear to be some marginal amounts of moisture still in the air column after midnight-600am on Thursday. Temperature profiles show a shallow cold layer near freezing from Columbus to Conroe to west of Livingston with a warm nose in the 800mb level and then cold above. Profiles look somewhat favorable for a sleet profile west of a line from NW of Victoria to Columbus to Livingston, but would like to see a smaller warm nose aloft. Main question is will there be enough moisture left in the air column to produce actual precipitation to the surface. Once again this is looking very marginal with cold air advection drying the lower levels. With that said, ECMWF and to a degree the CMC global models have been fairly consistent in developing a few bands of mixed precipitation Thursday morning mainly to the west and NW of the metro area. Will go ahead with a light rain/sleet/snow mix Thursday morning west of Victoria to Columbus to Livingston line with no accumulation expected given surface temperatures hovering in the 32-33 range and warm ground conditions. Can’t rule out a few sleet pellet or snowflakes all the way to the HWY 59 corridor, but surface temperatures in this region will be in the 35-37 degree range and the warm nose aloft looks larger so it may end up all liquid if anything falls at all.

As with all winter weather in this part of the state…there is a fair amount of uncertainty given the amounts of moisture and just how cold the air mass both at the surface and aloft will be. At this point any mix of winter precipitation looks extremely light and will likely not result in any impacts.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

It will be interesting to see what the HRRR shows once it gets in range.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041610
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1010 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...
For the morning update...nudged first period temps up a touch considering
the warm start to the day and some breaks in the cloud cover beginning
to show up on satellite imagery. Cold front should be moving into
northern parts of the region between 4-6 pm, so noted a quicker
temp drop there during that time period. Warm, moist air moving
over the cooler shelf waters has allowed for some sea fog to
develop. Expect it to expand and visibilities to further drop late
in the afternoon and inch its way into the bays and coastal
counties. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 43 47 32 55 / 30 70 70 30 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 59 37 53 / 20 70 70 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 61 64 42 55 / 10 50 80 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Potential 50°F drop over 36 hours coming up.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

A taste of wintry mischief still there on Euro:

Image
redneckweather
Posts: 1022
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:43 am A taste of wintry mischief still there on Euro:

Image

That was last nights run. Let's see what the afternoon Euro run has to say.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

12z Euro
Attachments
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc (3).png
sn10_acc.us_sc.png
harp
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:35 pm
Contact:

Does that strip of precip dry up before it gets to Louisiana?
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Still no mention of snow for me, from the NWS:

Wednesday Night
A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

CrashTestDummy wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:57 am
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:49 am Running the AC in february to be able to sleep...
:x
I'll take that! :D Actually, our house 'leaks' enough that it cools down fairly rapidly at night. Good ol' 1970's building at work again.

It does beat the heck out of standing on a ladder in 40-deg, 15-MPH north wind trying to get the citrus covered before the freeze. So far, it's been nice and warm. Just wish the rains would hold off some. Our back yard _just_ dried out enough we don't have to wear boots out there.
Sounds like you guys have some drainage problems around there or something. You’re always talking about your yard being a soupy mess lol
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Rain for me to...wont know till it starts falling from the sky
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The Euro and GFS are trying to come together around day 10 for a pretty significant cold blast.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Cold Front As of 1:45 Pm
Attachments
Cold Front 02 04 20 at 1 45 pm.JPG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Cold Front as of 3:15 pm
Attachments
Cold Front 02 04 20 at 3 15 pm.JPG
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

One last run today until probably Friday afternoon.

Security guard says she is not looking forward to tomorrow. I bet. I wouldn’t want to be outside all day in that wind.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

NWS on board with...something.
Attachments
forecast.jpg
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:39 pm One last run today until probably Friday afternoon.

Security guard says she is not looking forward to tomorrow. I bet. I wouldn’t want to be outside all day in that wind.

Nah, it'll be great. Layers.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Hi Res Euro from today (12z):

Image
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

snowmap NWS CRH https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

select the time range on the slider bar, default is 24 hrs
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail this morning as moisture
remains trapped beneath a capping inversion. A weak upper level
disturbance will approach the area this morning and will bring a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to mainly the SE
half of the region. Ceilings will begin to lift as the disturbance
exits the region this afternoon. A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings
expected tonight but another weak disturbance will move into the
area between 03-06z. A bout of light precipitation is expected
with the better lift/forcing over the N-NW TAF sites.Could be cold
enough to get a mix of -ra/-sn at KCLL and KUTS. Further south,
just some patchy very light rain possible. Precip should end prior
to 12z with MVFR conditions transitioning to VFR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
At 4 AM, a cold front was nearing the coast. Not much precipitation was
occurring ahead of the boundary but a speed max will be approaching the
area and lift should start to increase by 12z with showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms developing over mainly the SE third of the CWA. The
speed max will exit the area by 18z so most of the rain will end by
afternoon. Moisture trapped beneath a very strong cap will keep skies
cloudy today and tonight. Will be adjusting temperatures as the front
crosses the coast but not much of a warm up is expected today with
cold air advection persisting. SPC has coastal areas outlooked in
Marginal Risk today and there are some steep mid level lapse rates
but the threat for marginally strong storms looks rather low.

Tonight, a weak upper level disturbance embedded in the SW upper flow,
modest lift on the east side of a deep upper trough and weak isentropic
upglide will bring the area some patchy light rain. Fcst soundings over
the north show the best potential for precipitation with a saturated layer
from about 850-950 mb, a dry layer above the inversion and then another
saturated layer from 700-500 mb. The sounding is generally below the zero
isotherm. If precip does develop, the most likely form will be snow for
areas north of a Columbus to Huntsville to Trinity line. Frontogenetic
forcing is strong from central Texas toward the NW part of the CWA. Can`t
help drawing parallels between this event and Dec 2017. Both events had
limited moisture but strong forcing compensated for the lack of moisture.
Will go with a mix of rain/snow/sleet and see how things evolve. At this time
no accumulations are expected due to recent warm temperatures. Further
south toward Houston, forcing is much weaker, saturation is less, so would
expect just some very light rain but most of the area will probably remain
dry. It`ll be cold tonight with lows in the 30`s but the clouds will
insulate and keep temps above freezing over most of the region. Any residual
precipitation will end prior to 12z with partial clearing beginning
early Thursday morning. Skies are expected to clear by Thursday afternoon
with sunny skies by the end of the day. 850 temps are cold and even with
full afternoon sun, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 50`s. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

After a cold start on Friday morning with a light freeze expected
across the far north, temps will warm well into the 60s across
most of the area. A slow warming trend will continue through the
weekend with deeper moisture returning on Sunday as the mid-upper
level pattern undergoes a transition from zonal flow aloft to SW
flow aloft as a deep mid/upper slow moving low near the California
coast eventually evolves into a large western U.S. trough by
early in the week. Upper level disturbances out ahead of this
approaching trough will combine with increasing moisture to
produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday
afternoon which will continue until a cold front passes through at
some point next Wed. Monday through at least early Wednesday also
looks like a pretty good bet for coastal fog given the warm and
moist airmass that will be in place. Inland high temps will be in
the 70s from Sunday through Tues, and likely across southern
portions of the area on Wed as well. 33

MARINE...
Seas remain slightly elevated and an SCEC is in effect today for
gulf waters and adjacent bays. A cold front will cross the coastal
waters this morning with a moderate to occasionally strong offshore
wind developing. The strongest winds are lagging a bit behind the front
and speeds might not increase until mid/late afternoon. A tightening
pressure and thermal gradient will allow for a strong offshore flow
tonight and an SCA is in effect for the Gulf waters overnight. Winds
will diminish on Thursday as high pressure builds into South Texas.
Onshore winds will return Friday night and remain onshore through the
weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 31 55 34 68 / 50 40 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 37 54 38 68 / 70 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 41 54 48 65 / 70 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out
20 NM...Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 73 guests