February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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Re: February 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:49 pm

Rain for me to...wont know till it starts falling from the sky

Cpv17
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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:58 pm

The Euro and GFS are trying to come together around day 10 for a pretty significant cold blast.

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:53 pm

Cold Front As of 1:45 Pm
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Cold Front 02 04 20 at 1 45 pm.JPG

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:20 pm

Cold Front as of 3:15 pm
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Cold Front 02 04 20 at 3 15 pm.JPG

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:39 pm

One last run today until probably Friday afternoon.

Security guard says she is not looking forward to tomorrow. I bet. I wouldn’t want to be outside all day in that wind.

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:57 pm

NWS on board with...something.
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forecast.jpg

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:58 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:39 pm
One last run today until probably Friday afternoon.

Security guard says she is not looking forward to tomorrow. I bet. I wouldn’t want to be outside all day in that wind.

Nah, it'll be great. Layers.

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:00 pm

Hi Res Euro from today (12z):

Image

unome
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Re: February 2020

Post by unome » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:12 am

snowmap NWS CRH https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

select the time range on the slider bar, default is 24 hrs

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:42 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail this morning as moisture
remains trapped beneath a capping inversion. A weak upper level
disturbance will approach the area this morning and will bring a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to mainly the SE
half of the region. Ceilings will begin to lift as the disturbance
exits the region this afternoon. A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings
expected tonight but another weak disturbance will move into the
area between 03-06z. A bout of light precipitation is expected
with the better lift/forcing over the N-NW TAF sites.Could be cold
enough to get a mix of -ra/-sn at KCLL and KUTS. Further south,
just some patchy very light rain possible. Precip should end prior
to 12z with MVFR conditions transitioning to VFR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
At 4 AM, a cold front was nearing the coast. Not much precipitation was
occurring ahead of the boundary but a speed max will be approaching the
area and lift should start to increase by 12z with showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms developing over mainly the SE third of the CWA. The
speed max will exit the area by 18z so most of the rain will end by
afternoon. Moisture trapped beneath a very strong cap will keep skies
cloudy today and tonight. Will be adjusting temperatures as the front
crosses the coast but not much of a warm up is expected today with
cold air advection persisting. SPC has coastal areas outlooked in
Marginal Risk today and there are some steep mid level lapse rates
but the threat for marginally strong storms looks rather low.

Tonight, a weak upper level disturbance embedded in the SW upper flow,
modest lift on the east side of a deep upper trough and weak isentropic
upglide will bring the area some patchy light rain. Fcst soundings over
the north show the best potential for precipitation with a saturated layer
from about 850-950 mb, a dry layer above the inversion and then another
saturated layer from 700-500 mb. The sounding is generally below the zero
isotherm. If precip does develop, the most likely form will be snow for
areas north of a Columbus to Huntsville to Trinity line. Frontogenetic
forcing is strong from central Texas toward the NW part of the CWA. Can`t
help drawing parallels between this event and Dec 2017. Both events had
limited moisture but strong forcing compensated for the lack of moisture.
Will go with a mix of rain/snow/sleet and see how things evolve. At this time
no accumulations are expected due to recent warm temperatures. Further
south toward Houston, forcing is much weaker, saturation is less, so would
expect just some very light rain but most of the area will probably remain
dry. It`ll be cold tonight with lows in the 30`s but the clouds will
insulate and keep temps above freezing over most of the region. Any residual
precipitation will end prior to 12z with partial clearing beginning
early Thursday morning. Skies are expected to clear by Thursday afternoon
with sunny skies by the end of the day. 850 temps are cold and even with
full afternoon sun, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 50`s. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

After a cold start on Friday morning with a light freeze expected
across the far north, temps will warm well into the 60s across
most of the area. A slow warming trend will continue through the
weekend with deeper moisture returning on Sunday as the mid-upper
level pattern undergoes a transition from zonal flow aloft to SW
flow aloft as a deep mid/upper slow moving low near the California
coast eventually evolves into a large western U.S. trough by
early in the week. Upper level disturbances out ahead of this
approaching trough will combine with increasing moisture to
produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday
afternoon which will continue until a cold front passes through at
some point next Wed. Monday through at least early Wednesday also
looks like a pretty good bet for coastal fog given the warm and
moist airmass that will be in place. Inland high temps will be in
the 70s from Sunday through Tues, and likely across southern
portions of the area on Wed as well. 33

MARINE...
Seas remain slightly elevated and an SCEC is in effect today for
gulf waters and adjacent bays. A cold front will cross the coastal
waters this morning with a moderate to occasionally strong offshore
wind developing. The strongest winds are lagging a bit behind the front
and speeds might not increase until mid/late afternoon. A tightening
pressure and thermal gradient will allow for a strong offshore flow
tonight and an SCA is in effect for the Gulf waters overnight. Winds
will diminish on Thursday as high pressure builds into South Texas.
Onshore winds will return Friday night and remain onshore through the
weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 31 55 34 68 / 50 40 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 37 54 38 68 / 70 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 41 54 48 65 / 70 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out
20 NM...Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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