February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Re: February 2020

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:40 am

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A powerful cold front will move across the area tonight and early Wednesday

Slight chance of a wintery mix from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston Thursday morning.

Discussion:
Modified arctic air mass is surging into NW TX this morning and is plowing southward. Temperatures behind the front fall rapidly into the 30’s and 40’s while ahead of the boundary temperatures will warm into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s this afternoon under warm air advection off the Gulf of Mexico. While moisture has increased over the region, there is little in the way of lift for today and expect mostly dry conditions. A weak short wave will move out of NE MX late this afternoon and may result in a few showers over the area. Otherwise, will have to wait on the arrival of the shallow, but cold dense air mass overnight for better rain chances.

Shallow cold air mass will arrive into the NW counties around CLL early this evening and likely move off the coast around sunrise Wednesday morning. Front will likely move through Matagorda Bay before Galveston Bay as the boundary takes on an increasingly NNE/SSW slope overnight. Temperatures will fall from the 60’s into the 40’s quickly as the front passes under strong cold air advection. Upper trough remains over the SW US into Wednesday and this will result in moisture and lift over the shallow cold air mass. Light rain, drizzle, clouds will continue through midday Wednesday before the low levels begin to dry out some. Temperatures will go nowhere on Wednesday with cold air advection and light rain in place and hold in the 40’s with strong N winds pushing wind chills into the 30’s.

Wednesday night/Thursday Morning:

Upper air trough axis swings across TX along with a disturbance in the base of the trough eject NE out of MX and across SC/SE TX after midnight. While the profiles over the area start to dry out Wednesday afternoon, there does appear to be some marginal amounts of moisture still in the air column after midnight-600am on Thursday. Temperature profiles show a shallow cold layer near freezing from Columbus to Conroe to west of Livingston with a warm nose in the 800mb level and then cold above. Profiles look somewhat favorable for a sleet profile west of a line from NW of Victoria to Columbus to Livingston, but would like to see a smaller warm nose aloft. Main question is will there be enough moisture left in the air column to produce actual precipitation to the surface. Once again this is looking very marginal with cold air advection drying the lower levels. With that said, ECMWF and to a degree the CMC global models have been fairly consistent in developing a few bands of mixed precipitation Thursday morning mainly to the west and NW of the metro area. Will go ahead with a light rain/sleet/snow mix Thursday morning west of Victoria to Columbus to Livingston line with no accumulation expected given surface temperatures hovering in the 32-33 range and warm ground conditions. Can’t rule out a few sleet pellet or snowflakes all the way to the HWY 59 corridor, but surface temperatures in this region will be in the 35-37 degree range and the warm nose aloft looks larger so it may end up all liquid if anything falls at all.

As with all winter weather in this part of the state…there is a fair amount of uncertainty given the amounts of moisture and just how cold the air mass both at the surface and aloft will be. At this point any mix of winter precipitation looks extremely light and will likely not result in any impacts.
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don
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Re: February 2020

Post by don » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:44 am

It will be interesting to see what the HRRR shows once it gets in range.

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:10 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041610
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1010 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...
For the morning update...nudged first period temps up a touch considering
the warm start to the day and some breaks in the cloud cover beginning
to show up on satellite imagery. Cold front should be moving into
northern parts of the region between 4-6 pm, so noted a quicker
temp drop there during that time period. Warm, moist air moving
over the cooler shelf waters has allowed for some sea fog to
develop. Expect it to expand and visibilities to further drop late
in the afternoon and inch its way into the bays and coastal
counties. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 43 47 32 55 / 30 70 70 30 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 59 37 53 / 20 70 70 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 61 64 42 55 / 10 50 80 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:34 am

Potential 50°F drop over 36 hours coming up.

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:43 am

A taste of wintry mischief still there on Euro:

Image

redneckweather
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Re: February 2020

Post by redneckweather » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:55 am

DoctorMu wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:43 am
A taste of wintry mischief still there on Euro:

Image

That was last nights run. Let's see what the afternoon Euro run has to say.

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don
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Re: February 2020

Post by don » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:10 pm

12z Euro
Attachments
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc (3).png
sn10_acc.us_sc.png

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Re: February 2020

Post by harp » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:15 pm

Does that strip of precip dry up before it gets to Louisiana?

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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:37 pm

Still no mention of snow for me, from the NWS:

Wednesday Night
A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:49 pm

CrashTestDummy wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:57 am
Cromagnum wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:49 am
Running the AC in february to be able to sleep...
:x
I'll take that! :D Actually, our house 'leaks' enough that it cools down fairly rapidly at night. Good ol' 1970's building at work again.

It does beat the heck out of standing on a ladder in 40-deg, 15-MPH north wind trying to get the citrus covered before the freeze. So far, it's been nice and warm. Just wish the rains would hold off some. Our back yard _just_ dried out enough we don't have to wear boots out there.
Sounds like you guys have some drainage problems around there or something. You’re always talking about your yard being a soupy mess lol

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