February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:04 pm

You rock Montgomery CoWx!!

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:47 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031744
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR CIGs have spread across the region this morning and will be
reaching GLS within the next couple of hours. These clouds will
continue through tonight and into tomorrow morning with a BKN/OVC
1500ft deck over most of the region developing tonight. The
southerly winds will continue to gust to 20 to 30 MPH this
afternoon, then lessening overnight tonight although winds remain
elevated through tomorrow afternoon. Still expecting some
scattered showers to move across the region later this afternoon,
but have delayed the onset of VCSH a few hours compared to the
previous package. Shower coverage decreases tonight, but returns
tomorrow afternoon. One other concern is the possibility of some
fog developing late tonight for LBX and GLS, but it is expected to
be mainly patchy then clearing by tomorrow morning.

&&

User avatar
don
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Houston,TX
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by don » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:05 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 032152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Cold front and associated should be making its way into northern
parts of the area around midnight then toward the Highway 59/69
corridor toward 6 am Wed. Initially, not expecting spectacular
coverage along the boundary as it moves in, but do expect
coverage to increase as it makes southward progress. As we head
into the sunrise hours Wednesday, some models are pointing toward
a 130kt speed max making its way in from the sw, possibly putting
the coastal areas in the LFQ which would enhance overall lift.
Can`t rule out a burst of convection developing should the cap
erode. Otherwise, the front should resume swd progress once again
toward mid morning as the disturbance passes. Precip will taper
off from the west during the day, but breezy & cloudy conditions
will persist (along with falling temps) into the evening.

As the upper trof makes its way closer to the area Wed night,
guidance still shows the possibility of a narrow ne-sw oriented
band of precip developing overnight and passing thru the CWA from
roughly midnight-6am Thurs. Locally, overall column moisture
levels don`t look quite as high as was depicted yday and last
night and models vary in regards to the overall placement of the
precip (and will likely continue fluctuating for the next 24+
hours). There still appears to be a narrow window (midnight-6am)
of seeing a transition to a mix of precip types, but confidence in
the details remains low. Regardless, unless something changes,
not anticipating impacts considering the recent warm wx/ground and
overall quick movement.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

redneckweather
Posts: 840
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by redneckweather » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:30 am

20200204_002800.jpg

harp
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:35 pm
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by harp » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:40 am

redneckweather wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:30 am
20200204_002800.jpg
Does that mean you guys in Houston have a chance? ;) ;)

User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2287
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:50 am

A cloudy warm day ahead with highs in the upper 70s to near 80F. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight associated with the cold front. A few of the stronger thunderstorms could produce some hail. The SPC has a marginal risk area across SE TX including the Houston area. Temps will be falling throughout the day Wednesday with continued showers during the first half of the day. Another disturbance arrives late Wednesday and early Thursday morning which will result in a chance of Winter precipitation N and W of Houston. Perhaps a snowflake or 2 across NW Houston but the timing of the moisture content and the depth of cold air will be critical as always for SE TX.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 5.18.16 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 5.18.16 AM.png (16.11 KiB) Viewed 1656 times

Cromagnum
Posts: 1071
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:49 am

Running the AC in february to be able to sleep...
:x

CrashTestDummy
Posts: 174
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:44 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by CrashTestDummy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:57 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:49 am
Running the AC in february to be able to sleep...
:x
I'll take that! :D Actually, our house 'leaks' enough that it cools down fairly rapidly at night. Good ol' 1970's building at work again.

It does beat the heck out of standing on a ladder in 40-deg, 15-MPH north wind trying to get the citrus covered before the freeze. So far, it's been nice and warm. Just wish the rains would hold off some. Our back yard _just_ dried out enough we don't have to wear boots out there.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:16 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041151
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
551 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

.AVIATION...
Winds have begun to decrease as the gradient relaxes. A mix of
MVFR/VFR ceilings across the area but moisture trapped beneath a
capping inversion should keep skies mostly cloudy (MVFR) for the
morning before drier air aloft mixes toward the surface by
afternoon. A weak disturbance embedded in the southwest upper flow
could bring a few showers to the area later today. Ceilings will
lower again this evening with MVFR ceilings possible by mid
evening and IFR ceilings possible by 06z. A cold front will cross
the area this evening and overnight. There are some significant
timing issues between HiRes guidance and global models regarding
the wind shift. Leaned toward the faster HiRes guidance for
timing. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight
along and behind the front. GFS fcst soundings show mid level
lapse rates near 8.0 degrees and K index values near 40. Added
thunder for southern TAf sites after 09z. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus this forecast package will be the timing of a strong
cold front still progged to cross the area from north to south
Tuesday night. Also will evaluate the possibility of isolated
severe hail with thunderstorms along and behind the front as
suggested by SPC day 1 outlook with a marginal risk. Other main
issue is the possibility of a light wintry mix late Wed
night/Thurs morning. In the longer range looking at another fropa
potentially Saturday...and unsettled conditions early next week
with region returning to the warm sector. More details below.

Reilly

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Moisture trapped beneath a capping inversion has created cloudy
skies over much of the area this morning but drier air above the
inversion level will mix toward the surface and some peeks of sun
will be possible by mid afternoon. The flow aloft is out of the
southwest and water vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance over
northern Mexico and this feature should arrive by late afternoon
and coupled with warm air advection should produce a few showers
later today. 850 temps support high temperatures in the upper 70`s
to lower 80`s and due to the warm start leaned toward the warmer
side of guidance. A cold front over North Texas will sag southward
very slowly today and tonight. The NAM12 and HiRes NMM and 08z
HRRR are aggressive with bringing the front southward tonight and
close to the coast by 12z Wednesday. Leaned toward the faster
guidance but confidence in the frontal timing is low. The front
will trigger some showers this evening but precipitation will
transition to a mix of showers and thunderstorms by mid evening as
lift both along and behind the front increases, aided by
favorable jet dynamics. Mid level lapse rates between 7.5 - 8.0
degrees would favor some hail with any stronger storms that could
develop.

On Wednesday, patchy light rain will continue behind the front
during the morning before drying commences in the afternoon. The
front will be well offshore by mid day and much colder air will
surge into SE TX behind the front. High temperatures will struggle
to warm into the upper 40`s over the north and depending on the
frontal timing, could warm to near 70 along the coast before falling
in the wake of the front. 43

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Wednesday night...Cold air continues to filter in at all levels.
Model soundings suggest the air mass becomes supportive of a
wintry mix over time...with potentially mostly snow over far NW
counties. Some of the models...especially ECMWF and Canadian...do
in fact show a band of precipitation associated with lift with
right rear quad of upper jet and frontogentic forcing. GFS...and
NAM drier with little if any precipitation in our area. Likewise
the SREF members not showing much...no snowfall signal at all in
probabilistic guidance. Bottom line...still a chance of a wintry
mix of rain...snow and possibly sleet NW counties...including NW
Harris County and points N and W...for a period of time between
roughly midnight and 6 am Thursday. Any wintry precipitation that
does occur should be light and should mostly melt on
contact...given temperatures near or above freezing...and recent
warm weather. Will be something to watch...but not overly
concerned about any impacts at this time.

Thurday through Saturday...Few lingering showers far SE sections
early then cool and dry Thursday. Return flow on back side of
surface ridge begins on Friday...increasing moisture ahead of next
front due to drop down from the north on Saturday...likely
accompanied by showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...ECMWF and GFS both return region to the
warm sector with strenthening onshore flow...and warm front
lifting north across the area. GFS then brings yet another cold
front down from the north Tuesday...while ECMWF slower with this
feature...leaving SE TX in the warm sector. For this out
period...rain chances more uncertain...will depend on position of
fronts. While in warm sector...rainfall would be more
spotty...showery. While fronts are draped across the area...they
could focus more substatial rainfall.

Reilly

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A wide range of ceilings this evening (MVFR inland to VFR near
the coast) and the latest available model`s poor handling of
RA/SHRA areas is making this TAF forecast a difficult one to
figure out. Quite uncertain as to when/where periods of RA/SHRA
will develop over the next 24 hours, but for now have them mainly
in the coastal and northern TAFs. As for ceilings, have mainly
MVFR overnight with improving conditions as the day progresses
tomorrow (some spots might become VFR). Ceilings and maybe
visibilities should begin to fall starting tomorrow evening as fog
areas possible develop near the coast and the cold front begins
to move into the far northern areas in the late evening hours. As
for winds, some sites will be gusty for several more hours, then
look for decreasing speeds as the day progresses tomorrow under a
weakening gradient ahead of the front. 42

MARINE...
Strong onshore winds this morning will gradually diminish this
afternoon as the pressure gradient begins to relax as a cold front
moves into North Texas. Seas remain elevated and will be slowly
to decrease even after the winds begin to subside. The SCA for the
Gulf waters and Matagorda bay will remain in effect through 3 PM
and a SCEC is in effect for Galveston Bay through early afternoon.
Patchy fog may develop toward evening over the cooler shelf
waters and linger until the cold front crosses the coast. A cold
front will move through the area Wednesday morning a good chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The cold front will bring a
brief reprieve from the strong onshore flow for a few hours
before strong offshore flow takes over late Wednesday through
Thursday. Another weak cold front will be possible Saturday night.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 43 47 32 55 / 20 50 70 30 0
Houston (IAH) 79 56 59 37 53 / 20 60 70 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 61 64 42 55 / 20 50 80 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

User avatar
don
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Houston,TX
Contact:

Re: February 2020

Post by don » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:11 am

The NWS has added a rain/snow mix to the forecast for northern Harris county and points north.
Attachments
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Post Reply