February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2020

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:27 pm

Sleet now in the Wednesday night NOAA forecast for College Station.

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Katdaddy
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Re: February 2020

Post by Katdaddy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:36 am

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-031800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.200203T1500Z-200204T0000Z/
Madison-Walker-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Inland Harris-Wharton-Fort Bend-
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Matagorda Islands-
Including the cities of Madisonville, Huntsville, Caldwell,
Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe,
The Woodlands, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville,
Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, El Campo,
Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg,
First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland,
Alvin, Angleton, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, and Clute
400 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

redneckweather
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Re: February 2020

Post by redneckweather » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am

Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.

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tireman4
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Re: February 2020

Post by tireman4 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:45 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Changeable weather pattern on tap this week with big swings in
temperatures...periodic rain chances and even the possibility of
winter precip within a brief window late Wednesday night for NW
counties. We`ll outline these points below.

Reilly

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...
Southerly flow underway this morning and temperatures have
started creeping up where stronger southerly winds have been going
overnight...mainly the coastal counties and the western areas.
Speaking of winds have issued a Wind Advisory for the areas
generally west of a line from I-45 starting as of 15z. Winds of 15
to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph. Even 35 mph gusts possible in a
narrow band from near Edna-Bay City to Navasota. Temperatures
even with all this mixing should climb into the mid to upper 70s.
Probably won`t see the repeats of yesterday`s 80 degree readings.
S/W moving across from the southwest today (after 10 am) should
bring an increasing chance for -RA/-SHRA/SHRA mainly starting from
near Edna shifting northeastward to Katy to Livingston northward
with the greatest rain chances in the northeastern counties this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm may be possible in the far
northeast but confidence is low enough that will keep it showers
for now. Strong winds diminish this evening but still remain above
5-10 mph. The impressive plume of Pacific moisture will
overspread the area combining with the low level moisture from the
Gulf to bring a warm and still breezy day Tuesday. Rain chances
continue as this plume of moisture remains over the area and
isolated thunderstorms look possible. SPC outlook places the
northeastern areas in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
though realizing the CAPE may be a challenge. Rainfall
accumulations should be less than 0.25" through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures again on Tuesday soar back up into the mid to upper
70s and wouldn`t rule out near 80 temperatures in the
southwesternmost counties. Some sea fog/haze will be possible
Tuesday near the immediate coast. 45


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Forecast models depict cold front dropping from north to south
across the area Tuesday night. Some differences in timing between
the synoptic models...with NAM the quickest...ECMWF the slowest
and GFS in between. Timing of front will have major implications
on high temperature forecast for Wednesday among other things. For
this forecast package went with the GFS as a compromise between
the slower EC and some of the quicker runs...including the NAM.
This would bring the cold front to the coast around 12Z give or
take a few hours. Will then be drastically colder on Wednesday
with temps running 20 to 25 degrees colder than the day
before...and with a brisk north wind and an occasional cold light
rain making it feel even colder.

Wednesday night...there may be a break in the precipitation Wed
evneing. A fairly high amplitude upper trough swings across the
area bringing perhaps another batch of precipitation. By late at
night models soundings from GFS and to some extent ECMWF suggest
temperature and humidity profile may support some sleet and snow
mixing in NW counties. GFS seems to the the coldest solution.
Although in general trend will be for drier air to filter in...GFS
sounding does show a fairly deep saturated layer above 700
mb...and through the -10C to -15C layer...perhaps enough to grow
some ice crystals...snow flakes which may seed lower layers.
Botton line...have kept mention of sleet for that 06Z to 12Z
Thursday period for NW counties but added mention of snow to the
mix as well. Based on soundings and surface temperatures think
freezing rain is less likely than rain...sleet and snow so have
taken that out of the forecast for those areas.

Thursday though Monday...
Should be generally precipitation free...Thursday through Saturday
except for perhaps a few lingering showers far eastern counties
Thursday morning. Flow becomes onshore Saturday and increases
Sunday. With increasing flow off the Gulf...will see rain chances
return on Sunday and increase on Monday.

Reilly


&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions developing this morning across the
Gulf waters and expanding up into Matagorda Bay beneath the LLJ.
Winds of 15 to 25 knots should be commonplace. Concerned that
tonight winds near gale will be possible in the southwestern waters
as strong mixing takes place. Will need to monitor this area for
possible upgrade to gale. With all this wind seas should be steadily
building and 6-9 feet should be common today through Tuesday...if
these much stronger winds do develop tonight seas of 10-11 feet may
develop in the southwest waters. These strong winds should limit sea
fog development until possibly Tuesday over the colder shelf waters
mainly near Galveston/Bolivar. Winds relax slightly prior to the
cold front`s arrival Wednesday morning but then ramp back up with
strong CAA over the warm waters will likely see an abrupt jump in
the wave heights with chaotic seas develop given the long southerly
fetch of swells that will be hammering up into the coast. On that
note...elevated tide levels of around .3-.7` feet should continue to
climb and will be watching for these longer period swells to arrive
Tuesday morning. Window for strong to very strong rip currents and
beach flooding will be Tuesday morning through at least the
afternoon hours. SCA conditions post frontal passage and probably a
line of showers and thunderstorms with the front as it moves
offshore Wednesday morning. Winds relax quickly Thursday night and
turn around to the west and southwest by Friday noon.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
Minor changes to the current package with VFR conditions becoming
gusty around 15z. Borderline with LLWS in the west this morning.
MVFR ceilings developing this afternoon probably near the coast
first then expanding inland...CLL may hold til late afternoon before
dropping. Showers developing and traversing through the area this
afternoon from southwest to northeast. Overnight tonight elevated
southerly winds and MVFR ceilings lowering along with showers. LLWS
will probably be an issue for the LBX/GLS terminals Tuesday between
03-12z. Tuesday should remain MVFR.
45

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 62 75 43 48 / 40 30 20 50 60
Houston (IAH) 72 64 77 56 59 / 30 30 30 40 80
Galveston (GLS) 68 64 72 61 63 / 20 20 20 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reilly
SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Reilly
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45

Cpv17
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Re: February 2020

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am

redneckweather wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am
Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.

Kingwood36
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Re: February 2020

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:48 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am
redneckweather wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am
Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
If it isnt here...then who cares lol

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don
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Re: February 2020

Post by don » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:21 pm

12z EURO now shows a band of light rain/snow mix moving through South central and Southeast Texas as the cold core trough swings by, the 12z ICON looks similar fwiw.
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GBinGrimes
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Re: February 2020

Post by GBinGrimes » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:48 pm

That's Texas weather for you! Trees start budding a month early, bluebonnets start sprouting and Winter says, "Ummm...oh no you don't. I still have a say-so around here."

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2020

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:52 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:48 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am
redneckweather wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am
Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
If it isnt here...then who cares lol
He mentioned taking a road trip to chase it.

NWS has a forecast low of 36F for me Wed Night. Close.

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Re: February 2020

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:57 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:52 pm
Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:48 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am


I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
If it isnt here...then who cares lol
He mentioned taking a road trip to chase it.

NWS has a forecast low of 36F for me Wed Night. Close.

Yep, some people chase tornadoes. I chase intense Winter Storms.

There is nothing more pure than white out blizzard conditions and 50-60 mph winds. I love it!

When we go to Montana, I often look for the days where we get dumped on, and I'll be the only one on the slopes.
Team #NeverSummer

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