January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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Katdaddy
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Katdaddy » Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:44 am

A cool morning with low pressure wrap-around clouds across SE TX which will drift E with partly sunny skies this afternoon followed by increasing clouds tonight and increasing rain chances for Thursday as the weather roller coaster continue. The weekend it still looking very nice with lots of sun and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by BlueJay » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:58 am

Thanks for your report KatDaddy. :D No weather complaints from BlueJay!

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:49 pm

Looks like a boring weather pattern setting up for the next couple weeks. No surprise there. Just a few chances for more light rain and a couple more minor cool fronts. Nothing of any significance. Yawn.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by jasons2k » Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:40 pm

Another day when we didn’t get as warm as forecast. At least it’s not frigid outside, but that wind is a little too chilly for me.

Edited: they lowered my forecast high tomorrow down to 55.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by djmike » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:13 am

No February thread yet? Ive been done with Januarys weather... lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by snowman65 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:05 am

djmike wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:13 am
No February thread yet? Ive been done with Januarys weather... lol
Maybe you don't recognize it...It's titled "Summertime" lol

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:58 am

I mean, I don’t necessarily think we’ll torch anytime soon. Temps look to remain near normal to maybe even slightly below normal over the next 10 days or so. Next week has potential to be pretty chilly.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:38 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301717
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1117 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/MVFR and VFR ceilings across area TAF sites this
afternoon with some improvement in conditions toward late
afternoon. A weak disturbance in the SW upper flow will trigger a
few showers this afternoon and evening, mainly near the coast. A
coastal trough will bring additional light precip to coastal TAF
sites overnight. Radar is showing a burst of precip south of KLBX
and will TEMPO if this activity holds together. A return of MVFR
ceilings is expected overnight into Friday with VFR conditions
developing as the coastal trough moves east. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow/Friday]...
With the upper level trof axis continuing to deepen to our west, the
southern stream jet appears to be firmly in place across SE TX today.
This abundant cloud cover and possibility of embedded shortwaves all
streaming across from the W/SW will help to keep temperatures on the
low side of MOS guidance this afternoon. Highs should range from the
mid to upper 50s today. Will also keep POPs low most for inland loc-
ations today/tonight given the progged track of the disturbances.The
higher rain chances (along with the possibility of isolated TSRA) is
expected to be over the coastal waters.

This activity should be ending early Fri morning with the passage of
the associated cold front. However, the mid/upper level clouds could
be sticking around as the main upper level trof axis lags over far W
TX. As such, did keep with the cooler than MOS trends going for high
temperatures on Fri. 41

LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Thursday]...
Weak surface high pressure will allow for a fairly quiet weather per-
iod for the weekend even as mid/high clouds persist. An increasingly
strong SW mid-level flow developing late Sat/Sun and a warm front on
Sun will make for a warm/humid end to the weekend. Rain chances will
return in earnest Mon as the lingering upper low out west (at/around
the southern Baja) finally moves across the state. A second stronger
upper low/trof moving down from the northern Rockies will then bring
a strong cold front to the region on Tues. Much colder temperatures/
gusty north winds expected on Weds (and hopefully that all). Of note
for this portion of the extended, a few of the models are hinting at
the possibility of some form of wintry precipitation for portions of
our northern CWA Weds. Will be interesting to see if this holds with
later runs. 41

MARINE...
Northeasterly flow today as warm front over the Gulf creeps northward
possibly reaching up to around 60nm offshore/right near the edge of
the marine zones late this afternoon/tonight. Expecting an increase
in the coverage of showers over the coastal waters today/tonight as
lower levels moisten (PW edging up to 1.2-1.3") and upglide over the
boundary strengthens. SCEC flag already hoisted mainly in the late
morning through early evening hours. May need an SCA late
tonight/early Friday as winds near the sustained 20 knot mark with
building seas. 850 front sweeps out over the coastal waters Friday
morning and this should lower rain chances with reinforcing cold
front. Winds relaxing Friday afternoon/evening as high pressure over
the extreme western Gulf weakens. Southwesterly or westerly flow
Saturday night becoming southerly in response to the next upper
trough. Strong onshore flow on tap Monday with seas building to
5-9 feet.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 42 56 38 65 / 20 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 47 58 43 65 / 20 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 51 58 50 63 / 20 30 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Kingwood36 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:57 pm

So collin myers posted a graphic on abc13 fb page about some form of wintery weather and a strong cold front on tuesday...anyone else hear of such a thing?

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:52 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:57 pm
So collin myers posted a graphic on abc13 fb page about some form of wintery weather and a strong cold front on tuesday...anyone else hear of such a thing?
Yes. I just posted earlier that next week has potential. Winter isn’t over folks. February and even the first half of March can still be very cold.

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