Page 18 of 19

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:01 pm
by Cpv17
jasons2k wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:52 pm What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!
59? It’s 66 at my job in Rosenberg.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:16 pm
by jasons2k
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:01 pm
jasons2k wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:52 pm What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!
59? It’s 66 at my job in Rosenberg.
Yeah, I just checked the numbers here - I topped out at 62. Only busted by 8 degrees. ;)

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:49 pm
by jasons2k
Looks like a big smoke plume on the radar on the NE side....

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:39 am
by Katdaddy
A large area of rain is moving into SE TX this morning will make for a wet day. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible but no severe weather expected and rainfall totals will also be light across SE TX. The cold front will move across SE TX and offshore overnight bringing cooler temps. Wednesday looks to be a decent day before more clouds rain chances arrive Thursday ahead of the next trough.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:05 am
by djmike
Was that all the rain? Our ground isn’t even wet in bmt. Sprinkle and that was it. Or is more expcted?

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:37 am
by snowman65
djmike wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:05 am Was that all the rain? Our ground isn’t even wet in bmt. Sprinkle and that was it. Or is more expcted?
There's a line on the way. should be here shortly but looks like a fast mover and wont last long.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:54 pm
by jasons2k
More and more species of trees are starting to bloom. The maples and elms are starting to leaf out. Early spring this year. Hopefully it will be a prolonged spring of nice weather before we get too hot.

.26” of rain so far with more on the way.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:39 pm
by snowman65
I have azaleas blooming already.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:48 pm
by CrashTestDummy
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:54 pm More and more species of trees are starting to bloom. The maples and elms are starting to leaf out. Early spring this year. Hopefully it will be a prolonged spring of nice weather before we get too hot.

.26” of rain so far with more on the way.
The sweetgum buds are getting fat, but nothing seems to have budded out yet. The ash tree is usually the first one. It'll bud in February and then get frost bit so it has to do it again in March.

0.02" here, so far. Praying for no more, since our yard is still under water.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:23 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 281747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

.AVIATION...

SHRA and embedded TSRA are moving to the E and NE across the area
ahead of this evening`s cold front. Expect to see periods of SHRA/
TSRA (along with possible MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities with
the stronger activity) for the rest of the afternoon and possible
into early this evening. Winds will be shifting to the W and NW
after the evening frontal passage, and some gusty speeds can be
expected into the overnight and morning hours tomorrow in response
to a tightening pressure gradient. Could see an overnight wrap
around cloud deck develop across parts of the area too, but think
VFR levels will prevail. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
A wet start to the day is expected as that large area of showers
(and isolated thunderstorms) over Central TX overnight overnight
moves into SE TX. This activity is associated with a fairly deep
upper low/trof (currently digging down from the NW), and will be
keep elevated rain chances in place for most of today. While the
bulk of the rain will be from showers, isolated thunderstorm are
possible throughout the day. Not expecting any severe weather at
this time despite the abundant moisture in place and the potent-
ial for favorable instabilities this afternoon. Progs for a weak
low-level inflow and shear may be limiting factors. Average rain-
fall totals should be generally light (ranging from around 0.25"
across the northern counties to 0.10"-0.25" closer to the coast)
due to the progressive nature of the entire system. These rains/
clouds will help to keep afternoon temperatures on the mild side
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s/around 70.

As the main upper trof axis finally exits east of the region, we
will be seeing the passage of a decently strong cold front. This
boundary is forecast to move in from the NW around sunset and is
expected to be off the coast by midnight. There are also a brief
possibility of some wraparound moisture/light precipitation over-
night/early Weds morning as the upper low finally moves across.
Weds should be dry and cooler with highs in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. 41

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...
As we continue with this overall progressive weather pattern, the
next longwave trof is progged to begin deepening as it approaches
(from just south of the Four Corners) the Big Bend region by Weds
night. This should allow for the quick return of onshore winds at
that time across SE TX. Mid/long range models are suggesting that
we could see a couple of bands of weather from it...with a series
of shortwaves ejecting eastward from the main trof axis lingering
out west. The first event/increase of POPs should Thurs and Thurs
night, followed by its associated cold front. But looking further
ahead, we`ll have to keep a close eye on the eventual path/devel-
opment of the main longwave trof axis/closed low as moves east in
to the state by next weekend. 41

MARINE...
SE flow this morning with a weak coastal trough that has crept
inland to the coastal counties. Mixing has helped to raise the
ceilings and kept the fog at bay. SE flow should weaken this morning
becoming southerly then increasing again this afternoon. SCEC in
place for 20-60nm waters through 8 am but will probably need one for
late afternoon as flow increases ahead of the cold front. Showers
mid to late morning should give way to a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and then showers and thunderstorms on the front as it
pushes through coastal waters tonight. Winds quickly increase and
SCA conditions look solidly in place. Could see some gusts up near
gale and will need to keep an eye on the model trends 12 and 18z to
see if they increase further. The offshore flow weakens Wednesday
afternoon and evening as next system develops leading to winds
veering from the NNW to the NE Thursday then ENE early Friday. As
that gradient tightens up may see some elevated tide levels and
strong rip currents Friday morning. The associated coastal
troughing/warm frontogenesis Thursday night/Friday morning ends with
the passage of the upper trough through the Hill Country...may have
a brief window of moderately strong thunderstorms near the boundary
early Friday morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 42 57 44 55 / 60 10 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 66 47 60 45 57 / 60 30 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 66 51 60 55 58 / 60 30 0 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:44 am
by Katdaddy
A cool morning with low pressure wrap-around clouds across SE TX which will drift E with partly sunny skies this afternoon followed by increasing clouds tonight and increasing rain chances for Thursday as the weather roller coaster continue. The weekend it still looking very nice with lots of sun and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:58 am
by BlueJay
Thanks for your report KatDaddy. :D No weather complaints from BlueJay!

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:49 pm
by Cpv17
Looks like a boring weather pattern setting up for the next couple weeks. No surprise there. Just a few chances for more light rain and a couple more minor cool fronts. Nothing of any significance. Yawn.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:40 pm
by jasons2k
Another day when we didn’t get as warm as forecast. At least it’s not frigid outside, but that wind is a little too chilly for me.

Edited: they lowered my forecast high tomorrow down to 55.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:13 am
by djmike
No February thread yet? Ive been done with Januarys weather... lol

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:05 am
by snowman65
djmike wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:13 am No February thread yet? Ive been done with Januarys weather... lol
Maybe you don't recognize it...It's titled "Summertime" lol

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:58 am
by Cpv17
I mean, I don’t necessarily think we’ll torch anytime soon. Temps look to remain near normal to maybe even slightly below normal over the next 10 days or so. Next week has potential to be pretty chilly.

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:38 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 301717
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1117 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/MVFR and VFR ceilings across area TAF sites this
afternoon with some improvement in conditions toward late
afternoon. A weak disturbance in the SW upper flow will trigger a
few showers this afternoon and evening, mainly near the coast. A
coastal trough will bring additional light precip to coastal TAF
sites overnight. Radar is showing a burst of precip south of KLBX
and will TEMPO if this activity holds together. A return of MVFR
ceilings is expected overnight into Friday with VFR conditions
developing as the coastal trough moves east. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow/Friday]...
With the upper level trof axis continuing to deepen to our west, the
southern stream jet appears to be firmly in place across SE TX today.
This abundant cloud cover and possibility of embedded shortwaves all
streaming across from the W/SW will help to keep temperatures on the
low side of MOS guidance this afternoon. Highs should range from the
mid to upper 50s today. Will also keep POPs low most for inland loc-
ations today/tonight given the progged track of the disturbances.The
higher rain chances (along with the possibility of isolated TSRA) is
expected to be over the coastal waters.

This activity should be ending early Fri morning with the passage of
the associated cold front. However, the mid/upper level clouds could
be sticking around as the main upper level trof axis lags over far W
TX. As such, did keep with the cooler than MOS trends going for high
temperatures on Fri. 41

LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Thursday]...
Weak surface high pressure will allow for a fairly quiet weather per-
iod for the weekend even as mid/high clouds persist. An increasingly
strong SW mid-level flow developing late Sat/Sun and a warm front on
Sun will make for a warm/humid end to the weekend. Rain chances will
return in earnest Mon as the lingering upper low out west (at/around
the southern Baja) finally moves across the state. A second stronger
upper low/trof moving down from the northern Rockies will then bring
a strong cold front to the region on Tues. Much colder temperatures/
gusty north winds expected on Weds (and hopefully that all). Of note
for this portion of the extended, a few of the models are hinting at
the possibility of some form of wintry precipitation for portions of
our northern CWA Weds. Will be interesting to see if this holds with
later runs. 41

MARINE...
Northeasterly flow today as warm front over the Gulf creeps northward
possibly reaching up to around 60nm offshore/right near the edge of
the marine zones late this afternoon/tonight. Expecting an increase
in the coverage of showers over the coastal waters today/tonight as
lower levels moisten (PW edging up to 1.2-1.3") and upglide over the
boundary strengthens. SCEC flag already hoisted mainly in the late
morning through early evening hours. May need an SCA late
tonight/early Friday as winds near the sustained 20 knot mark with
building seas. 850 front sweeps out over the coastal waters Friday
morning and this should lower rain chances with reinforcing cold
front. Winds relaxing Friday afternoon/evening as high pressure over
the extreme western Gulf weakens. Southwesterly or westerly flow
Saturday night becoming southerly in response to the next upper
trough. Strong onshore flow on tap Monday with seas building to
5-9 feet.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 42 56 38 65 / 20 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 47 58 43 65 / 20 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 57 51 58 50 63 / 20 30 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:57 pm
by Kingwood36
So collin myers posted a graphic on abc13 fb page about some form of wintery weather and a strong cold front on tuesday...anyone else hear of such a thing?

Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:52 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:57 pm So collin myers posted a graphic on abc13 fb page about some form of wintery weather and a strong cold front on tuesday...anyone else hear of such a thing?
Yes. I just posted earlier that next week has potential. Winter isn’t over folks. February and even the first half of March can still be very cold.