January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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Cpv17
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:01 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:52 pm
What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!
59? It’s 66 at my job in Rosenberg.

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jasons2k
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by jasons2k » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:16 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:01 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:52 pm
What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!
59? It’s 66 at my job in Rosenberg.
Yeah, I just checked the numbers here - I topped out at 62. Only busted by 8 degrees. ;)

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jasons2k
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by jasons2k » Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:49 pm

Looks like a big smoke plume on the radar on the NE side....

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Katdaddy
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:39 am

A large area of rain is moving into SE TX this morning will make for a wet day. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible but no severe weather expected and rainfall totals will also be light across SE TX. The cold front will move across SE TX and offshore overnight bringing cooler temps. Wednesday looks to be a decent day before more clouds rain chances arrive Thursday ahead of the next trough.
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djmike
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by djmike » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:05 am

Was that all the rain? Our ground isn’t even wet in bmt. Sprinkle and that was it. Or is more expcted?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College St. area)

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snowman65
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by snowman65 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:37 am

djmike wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:05 am
Was that all the rain? Our ground isn’t even wet in bmt. Sprinkle and that was it. Or is more expcted?
There's a line on the way. should be here shortly but looks like a fast mover and wont last long.

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jasons2k
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by jasons2k » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:54 pm

More and more species of trees are starting to bloom. The maples and elms are starting to leaf out. Early spring this year. Hopefully it will be a prolonged spring of nice weather before we get too hot.

.26” of rain so far with more on the way.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by snowman65 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:39 pm

I have azaleas blooming already.

CrashTestDummy
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by CrashTestDummy » Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:48 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:54 pm
More and more species of trees are starting to bloom. The maples and elms are starting to leaf out. Early spring this year. Hopefully it will be a prolonged spring of nice weather before we get too hot.

.26” of rain so far with more on the way.
The sweetgum buds are getting fat, but nothing seems to have budded out yet. The ash tree is usually the first one. It'll bud in February and then get frost bit so it has to do it again in March.

0.02" here, so far. Praying for no more, since our yard is still under water.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:23 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

.AVIATION...

SHRA and embedded TSRA are moving to the E and NE across the area
ahead of this evening`s cold front. Expect to see periods of SHRA/
TSRA (along with possible MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities with
the stronger activity) for the rest of the afternoon and possible
into early this evening. Winds will be shifting to the W and NW
after the evening frontal passage, and some gusty speeds can be
expected into the overnight and morning hours tomorrow in response
to a tightening pressure gradient. Could see an overnight wrap
around cloud deck develop across parts of the area too, but think
VFR levels will prevail. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
A wet start to the day is expected as that large area of showers
(and isolated thunderstorms) over Central TX overnight overnight
moves into SE TX. This activity is associated with a fairly deep
upper low/trof (currently digging down from the NW), and will be
keep elevated rain chances in place for most of today. While the
bulk of the rain will be from showers, isolated thunderstorm are
possible throughout the day. Not expecting any severe weather at
this time despite the abundant moisture in place and the potent-
ial for favorable instabilities this afternoon. Progs for a weak
low-level inflow and shear may be limiting factors. Average rain-
fall totals should be generally light (ranging from around 0.25"
across the northern counties to 0.10"-0.25" closer to the coast)
due to the progressive nature of the entire system. These rains/
clouds will help to keep afternoon temperatures on the mild side
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s/around 70.

As the main upper trof axis finally exits east of the region, we
will be seeing the passage of a decently strong cold front. This
boundary is forecast to move in from the NW around sunset and is
expected to be off the coast by midnight. There are also a brief
possibility of some wraparound moisture/light precipitation over-
night/early Weds morning as the upper low finally moves across.
Weds should be dry and cooler with highs in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. 41

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...
As we continue with this overall progressive weather pattern, the
next longwave trof is progged to begin deepening as it approaches
(from just south of the Four Corners) the Big Bend region by Weds
night. This should allow for the quick return of onshore winds at
that time across SE TX. Mid/long range models are suggesting that
we could see a couple of bands of weather from it...with a series
of shortwaves ejecting eastward from the main trof axis lingering
out west. The first event/increase of POPs should Thurs and Thurs
night, followed by its associated cold front. But looking further
ahead, we`ll have to keep a close eye on the eventual path/devel-
opment of the main longwave trof axis/closed low as moves east in
to the state by next weekend. 41

MARINE...
SE flow this morning with a weak coastal trough that has crept
inland to the coastal counties. Mixing has helped to raise the
ceilings and kept the fog at bay. SE flow should weaken this morning
becoming southerly then increasing again this afternoon. SCEC in
place for 20-60nm waters through 8 am but will probably need one for
late afternoon as flow increases ahead of the cold front. Showers
mid to late morning should give way to a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and then showers and thunderstorms on the front as it
pushes through coastal waters tonight. Winds quickly increase and
SCA conditions look solidly in place. Could see some gusts up near
gale and will need to keep an eye on the model trends 12 and 18z to
see if they increase further. The offshore flow weakens Wednesday
afternoon and evening as next system develops leading to winds
veering from the NNW to the NE Thursday then ENE early Friday. As
that gradient tightens up may see some elevated tide levels and
strong rip currents Friday morning. The associated coastal
troughing/warm frontogenesis Thursday night/Friday morning ends with
the passage of the upper trough through the Hill Country...may have
a brief window of moderately strong thunderstorms near the boundary
early Friday morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 42 57 44 55 / 60 10 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 66 47 60 45 57 / 60 30 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 66 51 60 55 58 / 60 30 0 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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