Wx Infinity Forums

Yeah, I’m observing the same here too. Everything is blooming 4-6 weeks early, including the weeds. It was a great morning for a run though.

Has felt like spring for weeks and looks to continue. Time to put chemicals on lawn and start planting I guess.

For your entertainment from the 12z GFS:

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:23 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:24 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.

Your urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.

In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.

Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/

From the very article you linked: "Keck's explanation disproves a common misconception that insects "freeze off" and die."

That's basically the same exact point of my original post. Just swap out the words "common misconception" for "urban myth" and we are saying the same thing....

The longer and colder the winter, the fewer mosquitoes. Mosquitoes die all the time. Keeping the ground cold for longer reduces their presence in the Spring by reduces their generational procreation and population increase. By early Fall the population reaches a maxim. Melting frozen ground requires far more heating than heating the ground another 10°F.

To be more precise, a colder winter will delay the presence of mosquitoes, which is why I specifically targeted our Spring.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/ ... g/7461715/

Louisiana gets dumped on that run. It will be gone on the next. However, it has been trending cold beginning around the 6th of February.

Im very quickly giving up on this winter. Already almost Feb and still spring time weather. Ive lost all credibility on models for this winter. The lack of cold air is amazing. Just like last year. Next up, 100 degree miserable humid weather.

Today’s forecast was “mostly sunny”...still waiting to see that sun.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:27 pm Today’s forecast was “mostly sunny”...still waiting to see that sun.

Haha yeah, same here. Haven’t seen one peep of sun yet.

Clouds finally burning off here...

What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:52 pm What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!

59? It’s 66 at my job in Rosenberg.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:01 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:52 pm What the heck! I was expecting a nice mild 70 degrees when I left the office. Stepped outside - sure didn’t feel like 70, not even close. Just checked the thermometer and it’s 59F! Seriously??!!

I guess I won’t be running in shorts this evening. I was SO looking forward to my run and now I’m bummed!

59? It’s 66 at my job in Rosenberg.

Yeah, I just checked the numbers here - I topped out at 62. Only busted by 8 degrees.

Looks like a big smoke plume on the radar on the NE side....

A large area of rain is moving into SE TX this morning will make for a wet day. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible but no severe weather expected and rainfall totals will also be light across SE TX. The cold front will move across SE TX and offshore overnight bringing cooler temps. Wednesday looks to be a decent day before more clouds rain chances arrive Thursday ahead of the next trough.

Was that all the rain? Our ground isn’t even wet in bmt. Sprinkle and that was it. Or is more expcted?

djmike wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:05 am Was that all the rain? Our ground isn’t even wet in bmt. Sprinkle and that was it. Or is more expcted?

There's a line on the way. should be here shortly but looks like a fast mover and wont last long.

More and more species of trees are starting to bloom. The maples and elms are starting to leaf out. Early spring this year. Hopefully it will be a prolonged spring of nice weather before we get too hot.

.26” of rain so far with more on the way.

I have azaleas blooming already.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:54 pm More and more species of trees are starting to bloom. The maples and elms are starting to leaf out. Early spring this year. Hopefully it will be a prolonged spring of nice weather before we get too hot.

.26” of rain so far with more on the way.

The sweetgum buds are getting fat, but nothing seems to have budded out yet. The ash tree is usually the first one. It'll bud in February and then get frost bit so it has to do it again in March.

0.02" here, so far. Praying for no more, since our yard is still under water.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

.AVIATION...

SHRA and embedded TSRA are moving to the E and NE across the area
ahead of this evening`s cold front. Expect to see periods of SHRA/
TSRA (along with possible MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities with
the stronger activity) for the rest of the afternoon and possible
into early this evening. Winds will be shifting to the W and NW
after the evening frontal passage, and some gusty speeds can be
expected into the overnight and morning hours tomorrow in response
to a tightening pressure gradient. Could see an overnight wrap
around cloud deck develop across parts of the area too, but think
VFR levels will prevail. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
A wet start to the day is expected as that large area of showers
(and isolated thunderstorms) over Central TX overnight overnight
moves into SE TX. This activity is associated with a fairly deep
upper low/trof (currently digging down from the NW), and will be
keep elevated rain chances in place for most of today. While the
bulk of the rain will be from showers, isolated thunderstorm are
possible throughout the day. Not expecting any severe weather at
this time despite the abundant moisture in place and the potent-
ial for favorable instabilities this afternoon. Progs for a weak
low-level inflow and shear may be limiting factors. Average rain-
fall totals should be generally light (ranging from around 0.25"
across the northern counties to 0.10"-0.25" closer to the coast)
due to the progressive nature of the entire system. These rains/
clouds will help to keep afternoon temperatures on the mild side
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s/around 70.

As the main upper trof axis finally exits east of the region, we
will be seeing the passage of a decently strong cold front. This
boundary is forecast to move in from the NW around sunset and is
expected to be off the coast by midnight. There are also a brief
possibility of some wraparound moisture/light precipitation over-
night/early Weds morning as the upper low finally moves across.
Weds should be dry and cooler with highs in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. 41

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday]...
As we continue with this overall progressive weather pattern, the
next longwave trof is progged to begin deepening as it approaches
(from just south of the Four Corners) the Big Bend region by Weds
night. This should allow for the quick return of onshore winds at
that time across SE TX. Mid/long range models are suggesting that
we could see a couple of bands of weather from it...with a series
of shortwaves ejecting eastward from the main trof axis lingering
out west. The first event/increase of POPs should Thurs and Thurs
night, followed by its associated cold front. But looking further
ahead, we`ll have to keep a close eye on the eventual path/devel-
opment of the main longwave trof axis/closed low as moves east in
to the state by next weekend. 41

MARINE...
SE flow this morning with a weak coastal trough that has crept
inland to the coastal counties. Mixing has helped to raise the
ceilings and kept the fog at bay. SE flow should weaken this morning
becoming southerly then increasing again this afternoon. SCEC in
place for 20-60nm waters through 8 am but will probably need one for
late afternoon as flow increases ahead of the cold front. Showers
mid to late morning should give way to a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and then showers and thunderstorms on the front as it
pushes through coastal waters tonight. Winds quickly increase and
SCA conditions look solidly in place. Could see some gusts up near
gale and will need to keep an eye on the model trends 12 and 18z to
see if they increase further. The offshore flow weakens Wednesday
afternoon and evening as next system develops leading to winds
veering from the NNW to the NE Thursday then ENE early Friday. As
that gradient tightens up may see some elevated tide levels and
strong rip currents Friday morning. The associated coastal
troughing/warm frontogenesis Thursday night/Friday morning ends with
the passage of the upper trough through the Hill Country...may have
a brief window of moderately strong thunderstorms near the boundary
early Friday morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 42 57 44 55 / 60 10 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 66 47 60 45 57 / 60 30 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 66 51 60 55 58 / 60 30 0 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$