January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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snowman65
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by snowman65 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:19 am

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:14 am
From the NWS’s overnight discussion:
LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...

The medium and long range period will be one of unseasonably
warmer weather with periodic rain events primarily focused on
Saturday night/Sunday and Tuesday.
Spring has sprung.....let's do it.

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tireman4
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:48 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231614
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...
Wrap around clouds and CAA playing some havoc with the
sky/temperatures forecasts today. Wrap around clouds should expand
southeastward then shift east in the late afternoon all while
eroding from the west. Temperatures under the cloud cover should
struggle to rise through early afternoon whereas the areas with
sun should warm up quickly...until the cold front pushes through.
Winds becoming northwesterly at 10-15 and gusty at times this
afternoon. Cool night on tap with clear to mostly clear skies.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Winds relaxing and have become more west and west-northwesterly
as surface low near Lake Charles tracks away to the east. Cold
front should push off the coast this afternoon and northwesterly
winds become dominant and strengthen this evening. Seas of 5-9
feet remain mid morning and should slowly lower then may creep
back up tonight as the winds increase. SCA extended well offshore
and then have hoisted a SCEC for the overnight hours as winds
increase and slows the fall of the wave heights.
45

&&

Cromagnum
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am

Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

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jasons2k
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by jasons2k » Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am
Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:33 pm

Next Thursday/Friday has potential to be pretty wet according to the GFS.

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:24 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am
Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
Your urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.

In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.

Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:26 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am
Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.

We've had very little rain until 5 days ago (0.30 in over mid-December to mid-January), and the weeds are nuts in the back (where I put less pre-emergence). We've had no deep freeze.

Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!

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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:30 pm

GFS and Euro both agree on a strong front in 9-10 days from now, but the CPC forecast is a torch during that timeframe.

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jasons2k
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by jasons2k » Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:23 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:24 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am
Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
Your urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.

In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.

Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/
From the very article you linked: "Keck's explanation disproves a common misconception that insects "freeze off" and die."

That's basically the same exact point of my original post. Just swap out the words "common misconception" for "urban myth" and we are saying the same thing....

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GBinGrimes
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Re: January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

Post by GBinGrimes » Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:51 am

"We've had very little rain until 5 days ago (0.30 in over mid-December to mid-January), and the weeds are nuts in the back (where I put less pre-emergence). We've had no deep freeze.

Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!"

Spent the morning yesterday spraying weed killer and pulling them from around bushes and trees. Clover has gone wild. The pasture appears to be hosting a county wide contest of fire ant mound builders. Some trees are starting their leaf budding. This all has the appearance of late February or early March. A freeze between now and then, which is entirely possible though increasingly improbable, would be a nasty event for foliage.

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