January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
harp
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Tropical Tidbits is down.
texoz
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:37 pm
vci_guy2003 wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.
Why is that phrased, "If you believe the poles are warming..." ?

North Pole is clearly warming, which will affect Northern Hemisphere climatic patterns going forward. South Pole on the surface has not shown much warming, but around the edges in the ocean, most definitely.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Climate Prediction Center Updated Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 suggest a change in the pattern is coming. Below normal temperatures look more likely for the Central and Eastern United States with normal to above normal precipitation for portions of Texas.
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jasons2k
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texoz wrote: Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:37 pm
vci_guy2003 wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.
Why is that phrased, "If you believe the poles are warming..." ?

North Pole is clearly warming, which will affect Northern Hemisphere climatic patterns going forward. South Pole on the surface has not shown much warming, but around the edges in the ocean, most definitely.
Yes. And as MontgomeryCountyWx said, we could debate this one all night over a bottle of bourbon - hehe.

My $.02 - yes, the increase in warmth will result in more volatility, which, in theory, could result in more frequent cold outbreaks.

But the flip side is - well, the obvious - you have less cold air and arctic ice, and those outbreaks can’t be as severe.

We’ve seen the setup a few times over the last several years, but when it’s time to “dump” down the plains, the bitterness isn’t what it used to be.

I believe we have seen enough warming over the last 100 years that until it is reversed, there won’t be another 1899-like outbreak. There is just not enough cold and ice up there any longer to make it happen.

I think that 17 we saw a few years ago would have been 7 if it had occurred 50+ years ago....
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A lot of chatter about how winter is just about to get started later this month and into February, but I just don’t really see it yet on the models. I’m not one that’s educated enough to know what to look for exactly so what the heck do I know lol I don’t see that much cold air headed this way, not even on the ensembles. I will say that the models do look fairly wet though. My guess would be that we’ll be slightly below normal temps wise with above normal precipitation for the next few weeks.
harp
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Operational GFS finally coming around! Trend is our friend.
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Katdaddy
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A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of SE TX this morning which will make for a messy morning commute. A warm, cloudy, damp day ahead with scattered showers and patches of fog. Another round of Dense Fog Advisories likely this evening and overnight.
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redneckweather
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Man this place is dead. Let me kick things up a notch.😎

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harp
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I have been very surprised how dead this place has been. Things are trending in the right direction. At least for now.
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snowman65
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redneckweather wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:00 am Man this place is dead. Let me kick things up a notch.😎


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Don't believe the hype. Watch it disappear like a David Copperfield show LOL
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don
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12z ICON is now onboard also fwiw. Let's see if the CMC and EURO latch on.
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Katdaddy
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This morning's HOU-GAL NWS AFD summed it up well with some humor regarding possible Winter precip. Here is the portion of the AFD discussing the possible Winter precip:

Of course, winter being a season of strong transitions in our
area, you may want to be careful of what you wish for. Another
vort max looks to swing down early next week, bringing us a
reinforcing cold front. This may finally knock us back down to
freezing temperatures...in the north at least. Some of the
guidance even brings wintry precip perilously close to our
area...maybe even into spots north of Houston? For now, I`m
skeptical. I have more confidence in features above the surface
than in 2m/10m fields, and the 850 cold pool largely misses us to
the east. Perhaps this is one last gift from the Caribbean ridge
before it gets swept away. Anyway, I`m not going to dismiss wintry
precip out of hand...it`s probably one plausible scenario.
Buuuuut, I`d consider it more of an outlier possibility at this
point. Indeed, a glance at the GEFS plumes shows the deterministic
GFS and one lone GEFS member showing frozen stuff. That`s the kind
of ensemble support we`re looking at right now.

So if anyone tries to get you to hop on the hype train this far
out, know that you should probably stay off. If it turns out
we`ll need to visit Wintry Mix Station, there`ll be more
opportunities to grab a ticket in the days to come and probably at
a lower price. For now, let`s keep expectations in a more
reasonable spot - theoretically possible, but the chances are not
much higher than zero right now.
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don
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12z EURO looks to be getting on board also fwiw. One thing to also note is that due to lower heights with this kind of setup surface temps would not have to be at freezing to get a wintry mix even mid 30s would be sufficient enough. Of course thats assuming this isn't another phantom storm. I wouldn't buy into this scenario though until we get to this weekend.
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snowman65
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I'm curious as to why we haven't had any Greenland blocks this season. Everything seems to be moving due East, for the most part...
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jasons2k
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Just waiting for Joe B’s annual “Ghost of 1899” tweet and we can be done.

Meanwhile, I can’t wait to get home and run in this weather and break a sweat!
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don
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 142200
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Wednesday)...

A warm front extends across the northern half of SE TX and this
feature will continue to push north overnight. Clouds will fill back
in over the area and patchy fog will once again develop. Not sure
how dense fog might become inland as both surface winds and winds at
1000 feet look stronger than last night. Weak warm air advection and
modest low level convergence will produce some weak showers over
mainly the northern half of the CWA early Wednesday with slightly
higher rain chances possible by the end of the day as q weak cold
front approaches by the end of the day. 43

&&

.LONG TERM (Tomorrow night through Tuesday)...

Overcast and warm, humid conditions remain over the area through a
weekend cold frontal passage. Low end rain chances for mainly
mist, drizzle or a light shower. While the prog soundings do show
a warmer mid layer, feel it may be a bit overdone and that any
parcel that does makes it past 850mb will be entering cooler,
lapse level air. Either way, it will be a mute point if we cannot
get weak PVA to stream across the northwestern periphery of Gulf
upper ridging as the models have been hinting at the last several
runs.

A weak boundary is still forecast to wafe into the northern fringes
of the CWA and eventually veer area winds more easterly through
the day. Temperature forecast of a slightly cooler day up north
hinges on this occurrence. Disclaimer is that, if the front does
not make it into the area, add another 5 to 8 degrees to
Thursday`s maxT forecast (similar to the following day Friday`s
afternoon numbers). See how easy that is? Mornings will be mild
and moist 60s.

The cold front is scheduled to pass through during Saturday morning
during the daytime hours. Low end moderate POPs to accompany this
fropa. The passage of an upper trough late Saturday will open the
gates for some very cold air to advect in across Eastern Texas
early next week. The CONUS 6-10 Day CPC Outlook has literally
flipped from this mid-Janauary`s above normal period to a below
normal period (Jan 20-24, next Monday through Thursday). Dry air
is not in phase with the cold air advection as 0.6 to 0.8 pwats
remain while the 850mb temperatures cool from 7 or 8 deg C Sunday
night to the zero line reaching the coast by Tuesday morning. This
will take afternoons in the 60s/70s to the 40s/50s within just a
matter of a day...from Sunday to Monday. Overnights will fall to
freezing across the far north Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Energy riding in from the west may come through during the cold
air advection. Any generated early work week light precipitation
will be coming through in from the northwest at a time that AM
temperatures are reaching freezing. Thus, there are very low
chances of northern CWA frozen precipitation. As of now, IF
precipitation does occur, the highest probs for a -ra/-sn mix or
sleet (north of Conroe) event seem to be the most logical
argument. 31
Cromagnum
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Bring on the bitter cold. Anything is better than this disgusting pea soup crap we have now.
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jasons2k
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Just had my best run in two months. Broke a nice sweat. Muscles totally loose. It was incredible! Almost have me some Spring fever!

I’m loving this weather - except a little more sun would be nice. I’m not complaining though - it’s great to run in and it’s great for my sinuses and my skin. I can lay off the Norwegian hand cream for a few days now. :)
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Katdaddy
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Another morning with Dense Fog Advisories across SE TX. This afternoon will be similar to yesterday as the fog lifts with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a very warm afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to 80F. Tomorrow’s weak cool front looks to stall N of Houston resulting in continued foggy mornings and warm, damp, humid weather. In addition there will be 20-30% chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday.
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JDsGN
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This has to be one of the grossest feeling January mornings I’ve ever felt. Last night felt like mid June as I sweated away in my garage.
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