Wx Infinity Forums

I’m so sorry for you and your family, Montgomerycowx.

….and the GFS once again doesn't remember that it's January....

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:21 pm So now the model flipflop watching to see if we get cold in a little over a week.

nothing big. Typical "all bark, no bite". Everything is sliding east this year.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:08 pm Thank you all. I was able to clear most of the tree debris and hook the horse up to the tractor and get him to the driveway.

Waller Equine is supposedly picking him up today.

I’m not going to touch the barn yet until insurance arrives tomorrow .

I am so sorry for your loss and this terrible news! Your family will be in our prayers!

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:50 am We had a tragedy at the house. We were under the tornado warned cell in Magnolia and our barn was destroyed and my boys new horse (Christmas present) was killed in the storm.

150 yards to the SW and our house would have taken the brunt of that wind.

Hard coming back in and telling your 7 and 4 year old their horse is dead 2 weeks after our 15 year old dog passed.

Just heartbreaking MontgomeryCoWx Wishing for comfort & peace for your & yours - hugs to those kiddos

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:49 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:21 pm So now the model flipflop watching to see if we get cold in a little over a week.

nothing big. Typical "all bark, no bite". Everything is sliding east this year.

Wasnt there suppose to be a change that would allow us to have cold air come down?

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:50 am We had a tragedy at the house. We were under the tornado warned cell in Magnolia and our barn was destroyed and my boys new horse (Christmas present) was killed in the storm.

150 yards to the SW and our house would have taken the brunt of that wind.

Hard coming back in and telling your 7 and 4 year old their horse is dead 2 weeks after our 15 year old dog passed.

So sorry to hear. Those storms packed a punch. My best wishes.

The hook echo near Caldwell last night was confirmed an an EF-1 tornado today. Barns, trailer damage, trees down.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:55 pm The hook echo near Caldwell last night was confirmed an an EF-1 tornado today. Barns, trailer damage, trees down.

updated LSRs - anyone with damage should report it so it's documented for this event

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 20559/0100

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:31 pm

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:49 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:21 pm So now the model flipflop watching to see if we get cold in a little over a week.

nothing big. Typical "all bark, no bite". Everything is sliding east this year.

Wasnt there suppose to be a change that would allow us to have cold air come down?

This winter the models have only been a tease, nothing more. I can't recall the last time they were so wrong with model runs outside of 5 days for the entire winter season. I dont see anything else happening for cold weather this year. Hopefully next year will be better.

First off, Montgomery, sorry about your loss. The GFS ensembles are the only thing that look decent right now. The operationals look bad and so does the EPS. And even the GEFS isn’t looking as good as it was. It has most of the cold staying up near the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

This is so confusing. I hear one day: This is looking good. The next day: Nah, not so much. I read MJO looks like it's moving in the right direction. PNA may be going positive, etc. It's difficult to have any expectations when things seem to change from day to day. I'm sure winter weather lovers are just as frustrated as I am. Arrgghh!!!

Because people live and die by each model run. I haven’t wavered off my prediction of a cold end to January and start to February.

When models go into chaos with ups and downs so do the weather forums. Storm2k is no different. A lot of absolutist takes based on model runs instead of looking at old school forecasting and all the tools available.

Models will flip flop. They always do. Be patient.

Upper 70s in a couple days. Gross by January standards.

How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.

A thunderstorm is moving onshore near Galveston, TX headed NE toward Galveston Bay this morning.

Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days

snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:20 am Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days

Yep. 12z is having issues.