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Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:35 pm
by Kingwood36
That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:45 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:35 pm
That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?
Yes it is and discrete supercells that form ahead of it.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:58 pm
by Cpv17
What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:02 pm
by don
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:05 pm
by srainhoutx
Severe Weather Update from Jeff:
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for SC TX until 1000pm.
Strong forcing associated with a powerful incoming upper level trough and cold front is resulting in the formation of a line of strong storms west of I-35. This line of storms will continue to increase and grow into a solid line as is moves eastward this evening. This line will reach the western portions of SE TX (Columbus to College Station) around early to mid evening and into the central portions of the area (Houston) around 1000pm to midnight. Strong winds…some damaging will be possible with this line. While wind damage and isolated tornadoes are possible, not everyone is going to see wind damage. The greatest threat for damaging winds continues to be roughly north of I-10 and most likely north of HWY 105
An additional weather watch (severe thunderstorm or tornado) will likely be required for SE TX by early evening.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:56 pm
by harp
The GFS seems to be trending warmer and warmer... arghhh!!! It had been getting colder and colder.... the pendulum swings....
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:07 pm
by Andrew
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:58 pm
What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.
The HRRR shows a stronger cap compared to the NAM/GFS. Looking at the sounding A&M put out at 21z, whatever fires will definitely have the potential for strong storms.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm
by Cpv17
The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm
by Seantx81
Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:36 pm
by Ptarmigan
Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm
Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
So very true.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:44 pm
by srainhoutx
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm
The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.
It is very stormy to our West. Fingers crossed the cap holds for most in SE Texas overnight.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:48 pm
by redneckweather
Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm
Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
I'm thinking the exact opposite. Cloudy all day, kinda cool, strong south wind and misting off and on. We have had no surface heating today.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:53 pm
by texoz
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:57 pm
The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.
Yep. Crazy looking cell sw of SA that's moving very fast.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:35 pm
by Texaspirate11
Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm
Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
Agree been seeing this all last night and today in Galveston.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:38 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
redneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:48 pm
Seantx81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:33 pm
Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside
I'm thinking the exact opposite. Cloudy all day, kinda cool, strong south wind and misting off and on. We have had no surface heating today.
In the Summer and Late Spring I’d agree. Not during Winter with this set up.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm
by sau27
Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:27 pm
by Cromagnum
sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm
Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.
A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:33 pm
by Cpv17
The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:40 pm
by Cpv17
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:27 pm
sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:07 pm
Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.
A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM
1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.
Re: January 2020: Severe Threat Friday/Tracking Cold Air Next Week
Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:47 pm
by don
There looks to be a bowing segment forming east of San Antonio riding along I-10, theirs currently a severe thunderstorm and tornado warning for the cell.We'll have to see if it stays organize as it pushes towards southeast Texas in the next few hours.