January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

[Kingwood36]

That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?

[Cpv17]

That line that is developing west of austin that isnt our main player for tonight is it?

Yes it is and discrete supercells that form ahead of it.

[Cpv17]

What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.

[don]

The latest 18z NAM doesn't weaken the line.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11018&fh=6

[srainhoutx]

Severe Weather Update from Jeff:

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for SC TX until 1000pm.

Strong forcing associated with a powerful incoming upper level trough and cold front is resulting in the formation of a line of strong storms west of I-35. This line of storms will continue to increase and grow into a solid line as is moves eastward this evening. This line will reach the western portions of SE TX (Columbus to College Station) around early to mid evening and into the central portions of the area (Houston) around 1000pm to midnight. Strong winds…some damaging will be possible with this line. While wind damage and isolated tornadoes are possible, not everyone is going to see wind damage. The greatest threat for damaging winds continues to be roughly north of I-10 and most likely north of HWY 105

An additional weather watch (severe thunderstorm or tornado) will likely be required for SE TX by early evening.

[harp]

The GFS seems to be trending warmer and warmer... arghhh!!! It had been getting colder and colder.... the pendulum swings....

[Andrew]

What I don’t get is why do the models have the storms weakening as they get east of San Antonio? Seems like if anything they would get stronger or maintain the same intensity seeing as how the storms will be coming in during the evening into early nighttime hours which is usually prime time hours for storms to crank up.

The HRRR shows a stronger cap compared to the NAM/GFS. Looking at the sounding A&M put out at 21z, whatever fires will definitely have the potential for strong storms.

[Cpv17]

The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

[Seantx81]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

[Ptarmigan]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

So very true.

[srainhoutx]

The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

It is very stormy to our West. Fingers crossed the cap holds for most in SE Texas overnight.

[redneckweather]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

I'm thinking the exact opposite. Cloudy all day, kinda cool, strong south wind and misting off and on. We have had no surface heating today.

[texoz]

The radar is starting to go bonkers west of San Antonio.

Yep. Crazy looking cell sw of SA that's moving very fast.

[Texaspirate11]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

Agree been seeing this all last night and today in Galveston.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Sometimes you just have to throw the models out and go with your feelings. The amount of surface winds, moisture surging in off the gulf, and energy in the air tells me that someone in the Southeast Texas area is going to have a rough night. It’s just got that feeling outside

I'm thinking the exact opposite. Cloudy all day, kinda cool, strong south wind and misting off and on. We have had no surface heating today.

In the Summer and Late Spring I’d agree. Not during Winter with this set up.

[sau27]

Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

[Cromagnum]

Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

[Cpv17]

The line is beginning to weaken a bit just like the models indicated it would do just to the east of San Antonio.

[Cpv17]

Thinking we may end up getting cold-pooled here. Seems like the line is moving a bit slower than anticipated.

A lot slower. No way it gets here by 1 AM

1 AM? The line was supposed to be into the Gulf and LA by that time.

[don]

There looks to be a bowing segment forming east of San Antonio riding along I-10, theirs currently a severe thunderstorm and tornado warning for the cell.We'll have to see if it stays organize as it pushes towards southeast Texas in the next few hours.