January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

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Katdaddy
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Widespread light rain moving in SE TX this morning. Light rain with a few moderate showers will continue through the day and tonight before moving out of SE TX early Thursday morning. Many areas will see 1-2” totals with slightly higher totals along the coastal areas. Skies clear Thursday afternoon as the trough and front moves off the coast and into LA resulting in a beautiful Friday.
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DoctorMu
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Snow being reported near Shreveport. Temps in the 40s and rain. Maybe a light freeze at the end of JAN per Canadian. Sunny and seasonable for the weekend!

Be careful what you wish for re: no winter, early Spring - The weeds and insects this spring are going to be horrendous.
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tireman4
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Houston Area Radar at 1:28 pm January 22, 2020
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221840
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Afternoon]...
Widespread stratiform rain across the area this morning with
temperatures in the 45-60 degree range. Warmth near the coast will
be spreading inland as strong WAA continues in advance of the
upper level s/w. Temperatures across the north may struggle up
into the lower 50s but further south mid 50s to lower 60s will be
the norm. This large swath of light to moderate continuous rain
should continue through the mid afternoon hours then start to get
more scattered in nature but still expect rain through the evening
hours across the region. Rainfall totals shouldn`t exceed 2
inches but widespread 0.50-1.25" should be common. Rainfall should
taper off as s/w rotates through and we get a short window of
thunderstorms mainly south between 9 pm and 3 am. Tomorrow should
be warmer with increasing abundance of sunshine in the afternoon.
45

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Ceilings across the northwestern 2/3rds of the region firmly
below 900 feet and lowering while nearer the coast 2000-10000ft
ceilings dominate. As the s/w edges eastward and rainfall
increases in coverage over the southern areas expect the ceilings
to lower with evaporating rain/virga then becoming rain and IFR
or lower ceilings by late afternoon. Rain should taper off after
midnight west to east but cold front doesn`t scour out the low
level moisture until 14-17z frame. In that interim
ceilings/visibility could well tank as winds relax/wet
ground/saturated air remains and VLIFR conditions will be possible
mainly IAH northward.
45

&&

.MARINE...
SCA now in effect for all waters as gradient tightens and seas
build this afternoon. Winds of 20 to 25 will be fairly common.
Seas at noon already 7 feet at 42035/42019. Additional concern is
for strong thunderstorms mainly confined to the 20-60nm waters
tonight where CAPE greater than 1000j/kg and strong veering with
height line up.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/...





.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...

The late work week period begins breezy and chilly; Friday
morning inland minimum temperatures will fall into the average
lower to middle 40s / 50 F at coast as post-frontal skies become
mostly clear. Westerly winds aloft will aid in guaranteeing a
quiet Friday with dry conditions as afternoon thermometers peak
out in the seasonable lower to middle 60s. A shortwave disturbance
ejecting out in front of a Baja Peninsula shortwave trough will
come across the Texas coastline/western Gulf from Saturday through
early Sunday. Energy from the southern branch of a split mid-latitude
jet will join up with the lift provided by this aforementioned
shortwave disturbance in producing widespread rain and/or showery
Saturday afternoon out west through Sunday morning over more
southern locales. The more southern, or coastal, trajectory of
the shortwave has the highest probabilities for higher rainfall
focused over the southern third of the CWA and points offshore. A
warm, saturated column with little to no CAPE suggests just rain
and not thunder in association with this disturbance`s
northeastward passage. Coastal counties can expect to pick up
between a half of an inch to an inch from this weekend system.
Overcast with rain ensures a more mild and mostly overcast
weekend; more mild mornings in the lower 50s with the afternoons
slowly warming up into the mean middle 60s both Saturday and
Sunday.

After a dry and more humid Monday per a return flow, conditions
will become wet again on Tuesday with the approach of the next
upper trough moving out of the Rockies into the Southern Plains.
This places eastern Texas in a more favorable divergent upper
level jet pattern and, with the approach and passage of a surface
trough/front later Tuesday night, widespread showers and storms
will occur that evening. The main question that keeps likely POPs
out of this forecast will be the lack of overall column moisture.
PWATS of under 1.2 inches and dry mid layers suggest that, while
the upper lift is there, moisture may be lacking and this could
inhibit efficient rain-producing processes. Lower level southerlies
will help warm Tuesday into the lower 70s while overcast skies and
possible widespread precipitation keeps Wednesday morning in the
lower to middle 50s...a boundary passage during the day will usher
in a cooler and drier air mass that will regulate afternoon
temperatures to the lower 60s under a westerly wind. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 50 64 40 63 41 / 80 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 69 44 64 44 / 90 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 67 51 62 54 / 90 30 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...45
DSS/LONG TERM...46
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jasons2k
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Some rumbles of thunder headed this way. The radar presentation of the atmospheric dynamics taking place is pretty awesome for longtime weather geeks like me.
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Rip76
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Starting to boom here in Friendswood.
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Katdaddy
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Picked up 1.50” yesterday through early this morning. The overnight showers and thunderstorms have moved offshore and into SW LA. Some areas of fog this morning with clearing skies late this morning and early this afternoon will result in a very nice mostly sunny Friday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday will be a transition from mostly sunny skies to cloudy skies as the next disturbance approaches SE TX. Showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive late Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon with the next disturbance.
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snowman65
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If the groundhog sees its shadow this year, I'm going to have to call"hoax"
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jasons2k
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From the NWS’s overnight discussion:
LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...

The medium and long range period will be one of unseasonably
warmer weather with periodic rain events primarily focused on
Saturday night/Sunday and Tuesday.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Next storm system in the progressive flow aloft will move across SE TX this weekend.

Wednesday and overnight rainfall averaged .5 to 1.5 inches over much of SE TX and this rainfall has moved east and south into the lower MS valley and the Gulf of Mexico. Lingering low clouds will remain in place until a cool front moves across the region late this morning and this afternoon helping to scour out the remaining low level moisture. Skies clear later today and expect clear skies Friday and Friday night before moisture begins to increase on Saturday. Temperatures will remain a few degrees either side of normal for mid to late January.

An upper level system will move out of the eastern Pacific in the southern stream flow and cross MX Friday night into Saturday and move out over the NW Gulf Saturday night and Sunday. While the bulk of the rainfall will be along the coast and offshore, it does appear that most areas will likely see some rain on Saturday night into Sunday. Will stagger the rainfall gradient from the highest values (around an 1 inch) near the coast to the lowest values (less than .50 of an inch) north of Hwy 105. Most of the rainfall will be similar to Wednesday with general light rain and showers.

Post frontal air mass on Sunday evening is Pacific air and will only result in a minor cool down for early next week before SE winds return on Monday ahead of another storm system for Tuesday. Rain chances with the Tuesday system may be more limited with only a small window for moisture return.

Overall the mild temperatures will continue with no indications of any sort of arctic outbreaks for the next 7-10 days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:14 am From the NWS’s overnight discussion:
LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...

The medium and long range period will be one of unseasonably
warmer weather with periodic rain events primarily focused on
Saturday night/Sunday and Tuesday.
Spring has sprung.....let's do it.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231614
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...
Wrap around clouds and CAA playing some havoc with the
sky/temperatures forecasts today. Wrap around clouds should expand
southeastward then shift east in the late afternoon all while
eroding from the west. Temperatures under the cloud cover should
struggle to rise through early afternoon whereas the areas with
sun should warm up quickly...until the cold front pushes through.
Winds becoming northwesterly at 10-15 and gusty at times this
afternoon. Cool night on tap with clear to mostly clear skies.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Winds relaxing and have become more west and west-northwesterly
as surface low near Lake Charles tracks away to the east. Cold
front should push off the coast this afternoon and northwesterly
winds become dominant and strengthen this evening. Seas of 5-9
feet remain mid morning and should slowly lower then may creep
back up tonight as the winds increase. SCA extended well offshore
and then have hoisted a SCEC for the overnight hours as winds
increase and slows the fall of the wave heights.
45

&&
Cromagnum
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Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
Cpv17
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Next Thursday/Friday has potential to be pretty wet according to the GFS.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
Your urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.

In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.

Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.

We've had very little rain until 5 days ago (0.30 in over mid-December to mid-January), and the weeds are nuts in the back (where I put less pre-emergence). We've had no deep freeze.

Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!
Cpv17
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GFS and Euro both agree on a strong front in 9-10 days from now, but the CPC forecast is a torch during that timeframe.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:24 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:58 am Weed and mosquito season are gonna be off the charts horrible.

The effect of freezes against the mosquito population is mostly urban myth and exaggerated. Yes, freezing weather will kill any mosquitoes that are living or hibernating - but that is a relatively small number in winter. Hardly enough to matter. More importantly, the mosquito eggs are not affected by freezes and will be waiting for warmer temperatures and moisture to arrive.

The mosquitoes in Alaska are notoriously awful.

If you are worried about mosquitoes and weeds, your nemesis is the rain, not lack of cold weather.
Your urban myth theory is an urban myth. Mosquitos are inactive if temps are below 50°. Insect populations continue to grow (doubling effect) with warm weather and moisture. They peak in mid Fall in Texas. The only saving grace in BCS is lack of rain in July and August, which mitigates mosquitoes. Fire ant populations, wasps, and yellow jacket populations in the area are also dampened by prolonged winters.

In 2018 we had a prolonged winter and the insect population was down.

Alaskan mosquitoes are adapted to cold. Texas mosquitoes are not. Alaskan eggs survive freezing temps. Texas eggs, not as much.

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2018/02/01 ... osquitoes/
From the very article you linked: "Keck's explanation disproves a common misconception that insects "freeze off" and die."

That's basically the same exact point of my original post. Just swap out the words "common misconception" for "urban myth" and we are saying the same thing....
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"We've had very little rain until 5 days ago (0.30 in over mid-December to mid-January), and the weeds are nuts in the back (where I put less pre-emergence). We've had no deep freeze.

Right now, we have the most weeds I've ever seen in January - probably ever. Out comes the lawn mower!"

Spent the morning yesterday spraying weed killer and pulling them from around bushes and trees. Clover has gone wild. The pasture appears to be hosting a county wide contest of fire ant mound builders. Some trees are starting their leaf budding. This all has the appearance of late February or early March. A freeze between now and then, which is entirely possible though increasingly improbable, would be a nasty event for foliage.
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