January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Seasonable temps today and Tuesday with sun, before an upper level trough descends from the Rockies Wednesday.

Zonal flow continues. No exciting winter weather in the next week...but it beats 100°F and humid with no rain!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR. A weak northeast veering east wind with periods of high
cloudiness through the period. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tomorrow)...

Central Plains-centered surface high pressure has descended into
east state and weakened the post-frontal offshore pressure gradient.
A mostly sunny holiday with cirrus streaming in from the west will
counter the continued cold air moving in on weak northeast winds.
Thus, the day will once again only warm to around 60 F. The air mass
remains unchanged with a mainly clear overnight sky and near calm
winds producing another cold early Tuesday morning. Tuesday morning
minimum temperatures will be in the northern county lower to middle
30s, southern county upper 40s with the coldest inland spots briefly
falling to or below freezing a few hours on either side of sunrise.
Easterly winds slowly come around to onshore through Tuesday but in
not enough time to bring in lower level moisture to assist in
warming the day. Thus, with little change in this cold, dry air
mass, Tuesday`s conditions will be very similar to today`s.
Increasing and thickening high to mid level cloud cover as the
afternoon will only warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. 31

LONG TERM (Wednesday Through Monday)...

Our next storm system will be bringing rain (and maybe some isolated
thunderstorms) to the area early in this period. Beginning Tuesday
night through early Wednesday morning, expect to see increasing
cloud cover with rising shower coverage generally from west to east.
Rain chances (showers and possible isolated thunderstorms) really
ramp up during the day on Wednesday with a strengthening and convergent
flow off the Gulf. Will keep the rain chances high heading into
Wednesday night, but latest model trends point toward decreasing
coverage from west to east beginning somewhere in the midnight to
6 AM time period. Will show significantly decreasing rain chances
as the day progresses on Thursday (again from west to east), but
for this event some spots could end up seeing some decent rainfall
totals (possible >2 inches) mainly south of the I-10 corridor and
especially near/along the coast). High pressure building into the
area behind this storm system will keep the area dry Friday and
Saturday, and a majority of Southeast Texas looks to stay dry on
Sunday and Monday.

After a very cool Tuesday night, temperatures will begin to warm up
a little for the rainy Wednesday but highs should stay mostly in the
50s to around 60. Readings should not cool down too much on Wednesday
night (40s north...50s central and south) as the storm system works
its way across the area. Lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 50s/60s
will be the general range the area sees Thursday through Sunday. 42
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srainhoutx
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You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.

Your next 3 systems bring snow after the rain...and that means icy roads. You learn to stock up during periods above freezing temps and hunker down during ice and snow. Tire traction/friction and icy inclines don't work out well. Been stuck around Cashiers a time or two back in the day.

Back in the early 80s, we had some 0°F nights on a skiing trip.
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Katdaddy
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Its interesting to flowers blooming along the trails in W League City. Another gloomy wet late week followed by another perfect SE TX Friday and Saturday.
Kingwood36
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Im so over what winter we have had..im sick of hearing about a pattern change that obviously isnt going to happen..can we just move the clocks ahead an hour and move on to spring
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snowman65
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:30 am Im so over what winter we have had..im sick of hearing about a pattern change that obviously isnt going to happen..can we just move the clocks ahead an hour and move on to spring
Right...this "winter" was embarrassing LOL
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:



An approaching storm system will bring widespread rains to SE TX early Wednesday through early Thursday.

High level cirrus clouds will increase from the SW/W today as a storm system over the SW US moves toward TX. By this evening a mid level cloud deck will overspread the region and light rain will begin to develop and advance toward the area from the southwest after midnight. Low levels will take a bit of time to become saturated allowing the light rain to reach the surface, but this process should be completed by early Wednesday morning. Light rain will be ongoing for much of the day on Wednesday as lift and moisture continues to spread across the region.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning:
PWS values increase to near 1.4 inches overnight Wednesday and strong lift comes to bear across the region (especially along the coast). Expect thunderstorms to develop and move from SW to NE across the SE 2/3rds of the area. Moisture levels will support heavy rainfall and much of this heavy rain, looks to fall over areas of Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties where 2-4 inches of rain fell on Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely for much of the area with totals of 2-3 inches along the coast. While flooding is currently not expected, the widespread nature of the rainfall will yield run-off into area creeks and rivers and result in rises. Some local flash flooding may be possible in Matagorda and Brazoria Counties where excessive rains fell this weekend. WPC has placed areas south of I-10 in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Storm system will move east of the region early Thursday with lingering showers exiting the area by mid to late morning. Cool and dry heading into late week and next weekend.
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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures srainhoutx!! Loved them!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:08 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:56 pm You folks looking for cold weather, it found ME. Woke up to 18 degrees this morning with snow covering the ground. It's been spitting snow all day and temperature struggled to hit 23 a bit ago. More snow showers expected tonight in the Smokey Mountains with an overnight low in the low teens.
Thank you for sharing the beautiful pictures srainhoutx!! Loved them!
Yeah, the photos srain posted were amazing, with clouds hugging the mountain peaks. The generate their own microclimates.

As an extreme example, K2 (second highest peak after Everest) generates its own snowstorms without warning... and can backhand climbers right off the mountain. You won't see a long line waiting to climb K2!
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DoctorMu
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It ain't over 'til it's over...but it's kinda over.

Arctic air bottled up in Alaska as zonal flow continues...

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Katdaddy
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Widespread light rain moving in SE TX this morning. Light rain with a few moderate showers will continue through the day and tonight before moving out of SE TX early Thursday morning. Many areas will see 1-2” totals with slightly higher totals along the coastal areas. Skies clear Thursday afternoon as the trough and front moves off the coast and into LA resulting in a beautiful Friday.
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DoctorMu
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Snow being reported near Shreveport. Temps in the 40s and rain. Maybe a light freeze at the end of JAN per Canadian. Sunny and seasonable for the weekend!

Be careful what you wish for re: no winter, early Spring - The weeds and insects this spring are going to be horrendous.
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Houston Area Radar at 1:28 pm January 22, 2020
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221840
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Afternoon]...
Widespread stratiform rain across the area this morning with
temperatures in the 45-60 degree range. Warmth near the coast will
be spreading inland as strong WAA continues in advance of the
upper level s/w. Temperatures across the north may struggle up
into the lower 50s but further south mid 50s to lower 60s will be
the norm. This large swath of light to moderate continuous rain
should continue through the mid afternoon hours then start to get
more scattered in nature but still expect rain through the evening
hours across the region. Rainfall totals shouldn`t exceed 2
inches but widespread 0.50-1.25" should be common. Rainfall should
taper off as s/w rotates through and we get a short window of
thunderstorms mainly south between 9 pm and 3 am. Tomorrow should
be warmer with increasing abundance of sunshine in the afternoon.
45

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Ceilings across the northwestern 2/3rds of the region firmly
below 900 feet and lowering while nearer the coast 2000-10000ft
ceilings dominate. As the s/w edges eastward and rainfall
increases in coverage over the southern areas expect the ceilings
to lower with evaporating rain/virga then becoming rain and IFR
or lower ceilings by late afternoon. Rain should taper off after
midnight west to east but cold front doesn`t scour out the low
level moisture until 14-17z frame. In that interim
ceilings/visibility could well tank as winds relax/wet
ground/saturated air remains and VLIFR conditions will be possible
mainly IAH northward.
45

&&

.MARINE...
SCA now in effect for all waters as gradient tightens and seas
build this afternoon. Winds of 20 to 25 will be fairly common.
Seas at noon already 7 feet at 42035/42019. Additional concern is
for strong thunderstorms mainly confined to the 20-60nm waters
tonight where CAPE greater than 1000j/kg and strong veering with
height line up.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020/...





.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...

The late work week period begins breezy and chilly; Friday
morning inland minimum temperatures will fall into the average
lower to middle 40s / 50 F at coast as post-frontal skies become
mostly clear. Westerly winds aloft will aid in guaranteeing a
quiet Friday with dry conditions as afternoon thermometers peak
out in the seasonable lower to middle 60s. A shortwave disturbance
ejecting out in front of a Baja Peninsula shortwave trough will
come across the Texas coastline/western Gulf from Saturday through
early Sunday. Energy from the southern branch of a split mid-latitude
jet will join up with the lift provided by this aforementioned
shortwave disturbance in producing widespread rain and/or showery
Saturday afternoon out west through Sunday morning over more
southern locales. The more southern, or coastal, trajectory of
the shortwave has the highest probabilities for higher rainfall
focused over the southern third of the CWA and points offshore. A
warm, saturated column with little to no CAPE suggests just rain
and not thunder in association with this disturbance`s
northeastward passage. Coastal counties can expect to pick up
between a half of an inch to an inch from this weekend system.
Overcast with rain ensures a more mild and mostly overcast
weekend; more mild mornings in the lower 50s with the afternoons
slowly warming up into the mean middle 60s both Saturday and
Sunday.

After a dry and more humid Monday per a return flow, conditions
will become wet again on Tuesday with the approach of the next
upper trough moving out of the Rockies into the Southern Plains.
This places eastern Texas in a more favorable divergent upper
level jet pattern and, with the approach and passage of a surface
trough/front later Tuesday night, widespread showers and storms
will occur that evening. The main question that keeps likely POPs
out of this forecast will be the lack of overall column moisture.
PWATS of under 1.2 inches and dry mid layers suggest that, while
the upper lift is there, moisture may be lacking and this could
inhibit efficient rain-producing processes. Lower level southerlies
will help warm Tuesday into the lower 70s while overcast skies and
possible widespread precipitation keeps Wednesday morning in the
lower to middle 50s...a boundary passage during the day will usher
in a cooler and drier air mass that will regulate afternoon
temperatures to the lower 60s under a westerly wind. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 50 64 40 63 41 / 80 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 69 44 64 44 / 90 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 67 51 62 54 / 90 30 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...45
DSS/LONG TERM...46
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jasons2k
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Some rumbles of thunder headed this way. The radar presentation of the atmospheric dynamics taking place is pretty awesome for longtime weather geeks like me.
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Rip76
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Starting to boom here in Friendswood.
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Katdaddy
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Picked up 1.50” yesterday through early this morning. The overnight showers and thunderstorms have moved offshore and into SW LA. Some areas of fog this morning with clearing skies late this morning and early this afternoon will result in a very nice mostly sunny Friday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday will be a transition from mostly sunny skies to cloudy skies as the next disturbance approaches SE TX. Showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive late Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon with the next disturbance.
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snowman65
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If the groundhog sees its shadow this year, I'm going to have to call"hoax"
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jasons2k
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From the NWS’s overnight discussion:
LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...

The medium and long range period will be one of unseasonably
warmer weather with periodic rain events primarily focused on
Saturday night/Sunday and Tuesday.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Next storm system in the progressive flow aloft will move across SE TX this weekend.

Wednesday and overnight rainfall averaged .5 to 1.5 inches over much of SE TX and this rainfall has moved east and south into the lower MS valley and the Gulf of Mexico. Lingering low clouds will remain in place until a cool front moves across the region late this morning and this afternoon helping to scour out the remaining low level moisture. Skies clear later today and expect clear skies Friday and Friday night before moisture begins to increase on Saturday. Temperatures will remain a few degrees either side of normal for mid to late January.

An upper level system will move out of the eastern Pacific in the southern stream flow and cross MX Friday night into Saturday and move out over the NW Gulf Saturday night and Sunday. While the bulk of the rainfall will be along the coast and offshore, it does appear that most areas will likely see some rain on Saturday night into Sunday. Will stagger the rainfall gradient from the highest values (around an 1 inch) near the coast to the lowest values (less than .50 of an inch) north of Hwy 105. Most of the rainfall will be similar to Wednesday with general light rain and showers.

Post frontal air mass on Sunday evening is Pacific air and will only result in a minor cool down for early next week before SE winds return on Monday ahead of another storm system for Tuesday. Rain chances with the Tuesday system may be more limited with only a small window for moisture return.

Overall the mild temperatures will continue with no indications of any sort of arctic outbreaks for the next 7-10 days.
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